Preseason XC Countdown: Boys #2

<p> Texas MileSplit is counting down the 12 days until the first full weekend of cross country meets. &nbsp;Each day we will highlight one boys team and one girls team, with the idea that they are &quot;programs to watch&quot; for the upcoming season. &nbsp;This series is not intended to be a true ranking of the top 12 teams in the state overall, but instead an opportunity to highlight schools that have had strong recent success or have lots of talent returning for this fall.</p>

With only 33 seconds separating their returning 1-5 runners, The Woodlands has the closest pack in the countdown.

 

One thing we haven't really seen yet in this countdown is a boys' team with a very closely-packed returning top 5.  The Woodlands fits the bill, with only a 33-second 1-5 split (and only 40 seconds from 1-7!).  Their depth was on display in the spring, with 6 returning guys under 10:18 for 3200 (good for the 3rd-best average in the state) and 7 returners between 4:21 and 4:33 in the 1600 (#2 in the state).  In virtually the exact same story as The Woodlands' girls team, the Highlanders won the Region II championship but did not get the result they wanted at the state meet.    The Woodlands is the last non-Carroll team to win the 5A championship, and the Highlanders have an average finish of 2.3 in the final all-classes cross country rankings over the last 3 years; only one other team has been better in that time (guess who?).  Another interesting statistical tidbit on this team: their final 5K team average at the end of 2013 was virtually identical to their preseason returning team average (using 2012 times).  That almost never happens to good teams, and there is a strong chance of "regression to the mean," which in this case would indicate something closer to a 30-second improvement on the team average you see below.  Given that, and also Michael Butero's 9:28 for 3200 in the spring, it's not too difficult to imagine The Woodlands with 3-4 guys under 16 and another 2-3 just above, and that would make them tough to beat.

 

  The Woodlands (TX)
  1) Michael Butero   16:09.20
  2) Matthew Henderson   16:17.30
  3) Matthew McClellan   16:28.60
  4) Eric Kroon   16:38.00
  5) Daniel Golden   16:42.82
  Average Time: 16:27.18 Total Time: 1:22:15.92 1-5 Split: 33.62
  6) Javier Erana   16:45.31
  7) Matt Henderson   16:49.20