5A State Meet Predictions
05/08/2018 1:00:22 PM
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Joined: May 2018
Posts: 4
This division has some of Texas' best athletes and I would not be surprised to see the winning times rival those of the 6A division. In particular I am looking forward to the showdowns between Graydon Morris and Michael Abeyta. Abeyta has turned himself into a national-class athlete, but he has been chasing Morris for quite some time and I am not sure that he has ever beaten him. Just go back and watch Michael's interview after Region I XC Championships, his passion for running and improving as well as his respect for Morris are obvious. Here are my predictions for the distance races: Boys: 800: Winning Time 1:51.0 *Fastest of the day* 1. Christopher Wise 2. Bryce Kalsu 3. Colin Williams 4. Michael Abeyta 1600: Winning Time 4:12.5 1. Graydon Morris 2. Michael Abeyta 3. Will Muirhead 4. Dominic Cavazos 3200: Winning Time 9:02.5 1. Graydon Morris 2. Michael Abeyta 3. Dominic Cavazos 4. Cameron Kleiman Girls: 800: Winning Time 2:09.0 *Fastest of the day* 1. Bailey Goggans 2. Maddy Stephens 3. Eliana Lake 4. Brooke Barrington 1600: Winning Time 4:52.5 1. London Culbreath 2. Carrie Fish 3. Colleen Stegmann 4. Kaitlyn Childress 3200: Winning Time 10:18.5 *Fastest of the day* 1. London Culbreath 2. Carrie Fish 3. Kaitlyn Childress 4. Colleen Stegmann
This division has some of Texas' best athletes and I would not be surprised to see the winning times rival those of the 6A division.

In particular I am looking forward to the showdowns between Graydon Morris and Michael Abeyta. Abeyta has turned himself into a national-class athlete, but he has been chasing Morris for quite some time and I am not sure that he has ever beaten him. Just go back and watch Michael's interview after Region I XC Championships, his passion for running and improving as well as his respect for Morris are obvious.

Here are my predictions for the distance races:

Boys:

800: Winning Time 1:51.0 *Fastest of the day*
1. Christopher Wise
2. Bryce Kalsu
3. Colin Williams
4. Michael Abeyta

1600: Winning Time 4:12.5
1. Graydon Morris
2. Michael Abeyta
3. Will Muirhead
4. Dominic Cavazos

3200: Winning Time 9:02.5
1. Graydon Morris
2. Michael Abeyta
3. Dominic Cavazos
4. Cameron Kleiman

Girls:

800: Winning Time 2:09.0 *Fastest of the day*
1. Bailey Goggans
2. Maddy Stephens
3. Eliana Lake
4. Brooke Barrington

1600: Winning Time 4:52.5
1. London Culbreath
2. Carrie Fish
3. Colleen Stegmann
4. Kaitlyn Childress

3200: Winning Time 10:18.5 *Fastest of the day*
1. London Culbreath
2. Carrie Fish
3. Kaitlyn Childress
4. Colleen Stegmann
05/14/2018 11:29:00 AM
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Joined: May 2018
Posts: 4
@FastHorse This was a really fun State Meet. I predicted 5A a lot more accurately than I predicted 6A, but still had a couple of spots where I was off. Overall, I was very happy with the results as I had all 6 winners and runners-up pegged somewhere in my top 4. The 5A Boys were dominated by Michael Abeyta and Gradon Morris and this is just a flat-out fun rivalry to watch develop. These are two outstanding runners who are the absolute class of their division with Morris winning the 3200 and 1600 to complete the UIL 5A distance Triple Crown. I hit on two winners (underestimated Abeyta in the 800) and scored a total of 38 points with a delta of 14 (perfect predictions yield a score of 30 points and a delta of 0), so all things considered a very good day for my predictions. My predicted winning times were cumulatively 17 seconds off of the actual winning times. My biggest miss of this division was the 800 where I predicted Abeyta 4th and he finished 1st. Good for Michael for scoring UIL State Gold, but the question still remains: will he ever be able to beat Morris? Will be fun to see this play out over the next couple of years. The 5A Girls were predictably dominated by Goggans and Culbreath. I hit all three winners, and if a runner made the podium in Austin, they were in my top 4 pre-race predictions, and that is hard to do. In this division I scored 36 points with a delta of only 10 (perfect score is 30 with a delta of 0). I was 25 seconds off on my winning time predictions but that was largely due to London running controlled in her 3200 and not really going for it (22 seconds off in 3200 winning time). This division will be fun to watch as it is dominated by an undefeated sophomore and a freshman sensation. I really hope that Culbreath races at some national level meets and that some 6A competition (namely Casswell and Owen) follow her and try to beat the unbeatable. I also really, really hope we get a Goggans-VanCamp showdown before Izzy graduates next year. That would be electric.
@FastHorse
This was a really fun State Meet. I predicted 5A a lot more accurately than I predicted 6A, but still had a couple of spots where I was off. Overall, I was very happy with the results as I had all 6 winners and runners-up pegged somewhere in my top 4.

The 5A Boys were dominated by Michael Abeyta and Gradon Morris and this is just a flat-out fun rivalry to watch develop. These are two outstanding runners who are the absolute class of their division with Morris winning the 3200 and 1600 to complete the UIL 5A distance Triple Crown. I hit on two winners (underestimated Abeyta in the 800) and scored a total of 38 points with a delta of 14 (perfect predictions yield a score of 30 points and a delta of 0), so all things considered a very good day for my predictions. My predicted winning times were cumulatively 17 seconds off of the actual winning times. My biggest miss of this division was the 800 where I predicted Abeyta 4th and he finished 1st. Good for Michael for scoring UIL State Gold, but the question still remains: will he ever be able to beat Morris? Will be fun to see this play out over the next couple of years.

The 5A Girls were predictably dominated by Goggans and Culbreath. I hit all three winners, and if a runner made the podium in Austin, they were in my top 4 pre-race predictions, and that is hard to do. In this division I scored 36 points with a delta of only 10 (perfect score is 30 with a delta of 0). I was 25 seconds off on my winning time predictions but that was largely due to London running controlled in her 3200 and not really going for it (22 seconds off in 3200 winning time). This division will be fun to watch as it is dominated by an undefeated sophomore and a freshman sensation. I really hope that Culbreath races at some national level meets and that some 6A competition (namely Casswell and Owen) follow her and try to beat the unbeatable. I also really, really hope we get a Goggans-VanCamp showdown before Izzy graduates next year. That would be electric.

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