Predictions: Region 1-5A Boys Team Championships

Here, we break down the individual races in every girls' UIL 4A region, share our insights, and predict the champions.

1. Grapevine

Region I-5A is no stranger to dynasties, and Grapevine looks ready to restart one. Not long removed from back-to-back UIL 5A state titles, the Mustangs have sat No. 1 in the CCCAT poll for weeks and enter Lubbock with both pedigree and proof. On season form, they're the only 5A squad boasting seven sub-16:00 runners, and their "best five" profile is elite: 15:40 average, 1:18:20 total, and a razor-thin 23-second 1-5 split (Andrew DeYoung 15:25.1; Juan Gallegos 15:32.0; Kristopher Contreras 15:47.4; Owen Barnett 15:47.8; Sam Tjio 15:48.1; with Kale Cooper 15:55.0 and Spencer Grant 15:57.8 in reserve). That depth gives Grapevine multiple paths to a low score, either a front-loaded punch or a suffocating pack that swallows rival scorers.

The top end is real. Senior Andrew DeYoung, 13th at state last year, has raced like a true low stick, clocking 15:25 at Southlake and winning district in 15:57.49. He's backed by Juan Gallegos, whose fall has mixed speed and grind (15:32-15:58 range across Marcus, Southlake, Hoka McNeil, and a runner-up at district). Gallegos is a second-generation Mustang for Coach Rick Miller, and he is very familiar with the team culture, and he always brings the effort. When those two are inside the top 10-15 at the regional, Grapevine's third through fifth can simply stack bodies and bury the team math.

If you're looking for late-season indicators, the Mustangs check those boxes, too. On a weekday district course, they ran a measured 16:19 team average with a tight 0:48 split (18 points), then proved they travel on tough terrain by averaging 16:25 with a 0:43 split at the OSU Cowboy Jamboree, arguably the most honest course they'll see all fall. That combination of fast when it's fast, tough when it's tough, and always tight is exactly what wins elimination meets at Lubbock and, two weeks later, in Round Rock.

Yes, the past fortnight brought a little ebb-and-flow, but that may be the best news of all: it forced Grapevine to sharpen without burning matches. With the pack cohesion they've shown and two proven low sticks in DeYoung and Gallegos, the Mustangs enter Region I as clear favorites to win, and they carry a title-contender's profile for state. If they reproduce anything close to their sub-50-second compression, especially on a regional course that rewards disciplined packs, everyone else is running for second.

If Grapevine is the hunted in Region I-5A, Aledo is the pack that won't let the chase get comfortable. We project the Bearcats as the runner-up and a clear state qualifier, extending a streak of getting out of one of the nation's nastiest regions. The profile is rock-solid at peak: a 15:57.8 team average with a 1:03 1-5 split on personal-best form (Tyler Connelly 15:09, Noah Lay 16:07, Thatcher Pettit 16:08, Ian Robbins 16:11, Jonah Clary 16:12) and insurance from Maddox Murry (16:22) and Reed Murray (16:33). That's the kind of depth that travels.

The headliner is junior Tyler Connelly, who's leveled up into one of Texas' best. He put down back-to-back 15:09s at Marcus and Southlake, backed it with 15:23 at Nike South, then cruised to the District 05 title (15:57.9), a resume that screams "low stick in Lubbock."

Behind him, Aledo's engine is the pack: Lay, Pettit, Robbins, and Clary have consistently clustered in the 16-low range. When that quartet stays within a minute of Connelly, Aledo's score collapses quickly.

The meet-to-meet proof points are encouraging and relevant to the Mae Simmons blend of speed, rollers, hills, and wind: Southlake 5K Invite showed ceiling pace (team 15:57 avg, 1:03 gap), Nike South confirmed big-field composure (16:32 avg, 1:38 gap), and Coach T demonstrated grind on a slightly long course (16:35 avg).

Even in a controlled district effort (24 points, 17:04 avg, 1:37 gap), the Bearcats looked businesslike. Translate those patterns to Lubbock: Connelly up front, the 2-5 line jammed inside 45-60 seconds, and at least one sixth-man ready to steal a few spots late.

Add in the course fit, Mae Simmons rewards cohesive packs with late climb grit-and Aledo checks every box for second place with outside-shot upside if the front of the race gets chaotic. The path is simple: let Connelly anchor top-10, keep Lay-Pettit-Robbins-Clary tight through 3K, and close the final rise together. Do that, and the Bearcats won't just qualify; they'll look like a podium team two weeks later.

Grapevine and Aledo are the clear favorites for the Region I-5A top two spots, but Colleyville Heritage is the live riser with real upside. The Panthers were "eating" early in September, then steadied with a runner-up finish at District 06 behind Grapevine, a result that matches their No. 10 CCCAT ranking and sets them up to climb when it matters.

On season-best form they profile as a classic Lubbock threat: a 16:13 team average with a 1:18 1-5 split (Jeriel Campos 15:29, Michael Steinkamp 16:13, Samuel Czyz 16:15, Blin Berisha 16:19, Trip Quint 16:48) and interchangeable depth from Jackson Callihan (16:49) and James Shirley (16:58). That's exactly the kind of roster that can survive the wind and rolling hills at Mae Simmons provided the front two re-ignite.

The blueprint is straightforward. Campos was on fire in early invites (15:29 Southlake, 15:49 Marcus) and doesn't need to be perfect; he just needs to be a low stick again (top-20/30 overall). Steinkamp flashed 16:13 at Southlake and, when he's in that range, Czyz and Berisha tend to magnetize within seconds, collapsing the score quickly.

If the 2-3-4 trio holds a 20-second micro-pack and Quint/Callihan keep the fifth man under ~17:00 with the sixth close enough to displace, Heritage's team math tilts toward a top-four state berth-and a podium ceiling if chaos hits up front. They've already shown the pattern at Southlake, Nike South, and again at district: tight middle, credible back-end cover. If Campos and Steinkamp return to September sharpness and Czyz/Berisha go with them, Colleyville Heritage won't just qualify-they'll be a problem two weeks later in Round Rock.

If Region I-5A feels wide open behind Grapevine and Aledo, pencil El Paso High into the thick of that fight. The Tigers have been trending up for two years, with Miles Westbrook's breakout (3rd at state XC, 3200m state champ) resetting the program's ceiling, and now sophomore Andrew Truax gives them a true low-stick to build around. At their best, El Paso's season profile shows a legit qualifying template: 15:27.62/Truax up front, then Logan Luchenbill (16:49) and Eduardo Cardenas (16:57) closing the middle, with Aidan Banuelos (17:12) and a fifth in the 17:30 range (James Kaufmann or David Luchenbill) to finish the job. That's an ~16:47 team average when they hit, and while a 2:03 split leaves little margin, the scoring math works if Truax lands as a top-10 regional finisher and the 2-3-4 pack holds together.

Yes, the district meet wobble was real-illness rolled through the lineup, but the larger body of work says the Tigers are better than that one day. Their schedule skewed toward hilly, slower courses and limited head-to-head tests, which makes Mae Simmons in Lubbock a fascinating equalizer: still technically at altitude, but generally faster footing and, for a squad training at El Paso elevation, friendlier oxygen on race day. The key levers: keep Truax in the single digits, tighten the gap from Luchenbill/Cardenas to Banuelos, and get a fifth man under 17:30. Do those three things, and El Paso stacks up well in what looks like a knife-fight for the fourth and final state berth. Argyle is the obvious foil and fully capable, but if the Tigers rebound to their September form, we like El Paso to edge through to Round Rock.