Predictions: Region 1-5A Girls Team Championships

This preview is all about the teams: who brings the true low-stick, whose 3-5 scorers travel best, and which lineups have tightened their 1-5 spread at exactly the right time. With margins this thin, "good" won't be good enough, championship berths will go to groups that can convert steady mid-race positioning into ruthless late-race place-picking. From slight altitude, a few rolling hills, and wind to the psychological squeeze of elimination racing, Region I will stress every roster spot. Read on for where the favorites separate, where the bubble gets crowded, and which squads have the metrics-and the mindset-to reach the state meet podium.

Aledo looks prepared to do exactly what a defending regional champion is supposed to do: show up composed, control the middle of the race, and close the door with five scorers before anyone else could rally. Ranked No. 4 in the latest CCCAT 5A poll, the Lady Bearcats looked every bit like last year's Region I winners and eventual state podium team, even after losing their No. 2 runner to a transfer. Their spine, Molly Garrison, Mykel Murry, Madison Larsen, and Mayden Mitchell, have again provided the steady cadence, and the emergence of sophomore Hadleigh Walton slotted seamlessly into that top pack, restoring Aledo's familiar five-deep punch.

On paper, Aledo's season-best profile (18:51 team average with a 1:54 1-5 split) suggests a small margin for error if the race breaks wide open up front. In practice, they've turned that profile into a feature, not a flaw. With Garrison as the individual favorite, her sub-18 ceiling stretches the field and forces other teams to chase. Aledo trusts the foursome behind her to stack places in the teens and 20s. It's the same formula that produced a 1:56 gap at regionals last fall (still a 44-point win) and an even wider 2:21 spread at state that nonetheless ended with bronze. Today's script followed that blueprint: Garrison drove the pace; Walton and Murry keep the scoring line tight; Larsen and Mitchell clean up the last scoring spots with mature mid-race moves that blunt rival charges.

The result was a champion's performance built on roles and rhythm more than fireworks. Even without a perfect compression, Aledo's floor stayed high-five reliable scorers, a proven closer up front, and a staff unafraid to let the race come to them. In a region where one miscue can flip the board, the Lady Bearcats leaned on identity and depth, and that was more than enough to keep the crown and keep the season's biggest goals squarely in view.

The No. 6 Grapevine girls enter Region I-5A looking exactly like a program built for elimination racing: steady front-runner, airtight pack, and credible depth through seven. On season bests, the Mustangs average 19:16 with a razor-thin 30-second 1-5 spread, Annabelle Butler (18:57.7) sets the tone, then Ella Nordell (19:15.7), Audrey Rankin (19:16.8), Revi Salinsky (19:25.2), and London Dezurik (19:27.8) arrive in rapid succession. That kind of "blink and five are home" scoring profile travels to any course and keeps the floor high on an off day.

The most recent proof-of-concept came at the District 6-5A final, where Grapevine rolled to 25 points with a 19:49 average and a 0:45 gap, stacking five inside the top eight and stashing two more (Olivia Capelo at 19:43.3 and Geneva McCreight at 19:45.8) as insurance. Swap in Mae Simmons' hills and the possibility of wind, and the raw times will tick up, but the Mustangs' winning trait, how little ground exists between their first and fifth, won't change. That's exactly how they earned fourth at region last fall and a trip to Round Rock, and it's why they're positioned to chase even more this time.

In a field headlined by podium-caliber squads, Grapevine's path is clear: let Butler secure a low stick, then unleash the 2-5 train to smother the mid-pack. If they reproduce anything close to the 30-second season-best spread or the sub-minute district gap, expect the Mustangs to be in the title conversation deep into the final kilometer and, at minimum, firmly inside the top four.

The CCCAT No. 8-ranked Colleyville Heritage arrives in Lubbock with pedigree and purpose. The Panthers were Region I-5A runners-up last fall and looked the part again at the District 6-5A meet, finishing second to Grapevine with 53 points and a 20:11 average. The headline is senior Natali Velasquez, one of the region's sharpest closers, who gives Heritage a true low stick and a realistic shot to contend for the individual title. When Velasquez is inside the top five and the scoring line forms quickly behind her, Heritage's path to a return trip to Round Rock becomes very straightforward.

On season bests, Heritage owns a 19:39 team average with a 1:13 1-5 spread proof they have the wheels to run with any pack in Region I. The engine room is deep and experienced: Akshita Thiru (19:29) has been a reliable No. 2, while Olivia Sandoval (19:55), Clara Deweese (19:58), and Reese Robertson (20:03) round out a scoring five that, at its best, stacks tightly through the mid-19s. Depth options Jade Munguia (20:18) and Tara Jacobs (20:19) provide insurance on a course where late-race surges and small gaps can flip places fast.

If there's a variable, it's the accordion-like team gap that has occasionally stretched beyond a minute and a half. But Heritage's district run (1-3-12-17-20) showed they can stay organized when it counts, and their collective big-meet reps, plus Velasquez's low stick, give them a clear advantage in the qualification fight. Expect the Panthers to race assertively through 2K, keep the 3-5 runners attached, and turn their veteran poise into a top-four finish-and a chance to chase podium placement at state.

Abilene heads back to Lubbock looking very much like a return qualifier. The Eagles were third at Region 1-5A last fall, and even after graduating four of seven, including top duo Zoe Vann and Mason Murray, their 2025 profile stacks up well: a 19:35 team average off-season bests with a 2:08 1-5 spread, both stronger than what they brought to Mae Simmons a year ago. Senior ace Aubrey Duran (18:07) has grown into a true low-stick capable of top-10 contention, and her presence up front gives Abilene the margin they need while the scoring pack finds each other on the hills and turns.

The path to Round Rock is straightforward: keep the 2-5 runners tight and inside the low-20s. The trio of Emily Brumley (19:41), Sari Smith (19:53), and Dasie Batten (19:58) has already shown mid-19s ability; if they attach early and hold contact through the final ridge, Abilene's scoring line becomes hard to beat. Ayanna Williams (20:16) is the hinge; every place she steals in the last kilometer compresses that spread and pushes the Eagles up the board.

Depth matters at Mae Simmons, and Abilene has it: Kinsley Robinson and Lilyanna Pachicano are viable displacers if called upon. With Duran's front-running and a pack that's trending faster than last year, Abilene owns a clear, realistic shot to secure one of the four qualifying spots and take another swing at the state podium.