Predictions: Region 2-5A Boys Team Championships

Region 2-5A just got a plot twist. Instead of grinding out the rolling gravel and shoreline breezes at Joe Pool Lake at Lynn Creek Park, athletes will circle the Harold Patterson Sports Complex in Arlington, multiple laps, wide turns, and sight-line-friendly straightaways. The switch won't change who's fit, but it absolutely changes how the race will feel: more rhythm, more crowd energy every loop, and far fewer places to hide once the packs form.

Lap courses reward discipline and execution. Splits are easier to monitor, surges are easier to time, and coaches can reach athletes more than once per mile. That means low-sticks must decide where to press early to thin the herd, or late to break a stubborn pack in full view of the finishing straight. It also raises the premium on tangents, positioning into turns, and drafting when the wind kicks across the open fields.

Teamwise, this venue tilts slightly toward programs with tight 2-5 compression and savvy pacing-those who can lock into a steady tempo and trade pulls lap after lap. Expect deeper packs to stay intact longer than they might at Joe Pool, then unravel quickly in the final kilometer as moves stack up at predictable checkpoints. On the flip side, front-runners with a decisive gear change can use the repetitive layout to rehearse, and then unleash a finish they've practiced all season.

Harold Patterson's looped layout rewards rhythm and discipline more than brute strength. That plays right into North's identity: a low-stick up front and a tight, composable pack behind him. With Rhett Hulin (15:18.5 SB) likely to live inside the top five through 3K, the meet swings on the quartet of Drew Hansen, Elijah Trusty, Aiden Trusty, and Adam Pineda holding formation from 2K to 4K and protecting positions when the field starts trading passes. At their ceiling, this group owns a 15:56 team average with a 1:05 1-5 split; that exact profile, moderate pace, and minimal separation has traveled well for them on everything from the blazing Southlake layout to the rugged Lovejoy course at Myers Park.

Results-wise, they've already cleared the bar you need to win here. North beat No. 4 Lovejoy and No. 8 Boerne at the Lovejoy XC Fall Festival with a 16:26 average and 1:28 gap, then proved they can tighten when it counts by winning District 9-5A with a 40-second 1-5 spread in a mid-week setting (38 points to Prosper Walnut Grove's 40 and Lovejoy's 46). That compression is the separator on a lap course: every four-second stall in the third mile possibly becomes a two-place swing when packs are stacked three wide. If Hulin lands ~3-6, Hansen in the 10-15 corridor, the Trustys in the 15-25 window, and Pineda in the 25-35 range, you're looking at a winning score profile without needing a hero split.

So what tips the scales? Pacing the first kilometer at "position, not panic," staying touch-tight through the halfway mat, and refusing to let the 1-5 gap creep beyond ~60 seconds. If North does those three things, they don't need lifetime PRs, just their well-rehearsed pack mechanics. That's why we like the Bulldogs to convert last year's fourth into a banner this time.

Lucas Lovejoy is usually in the catbird seat in Region II-5A, but 2025 has looked more like a roller coaster than a victory lap to their 2024 state title. Their District 9-5A showing, third behind McKinney North and Prosper Walnut Grove with a 17:04 team average and a 2:09 1-5 gap-was the most un-Lovejoy performance we've seen in years. The upside: the season-best profile still screams contender. With Tristan Arceneau (15:29) and Joseph Reid (15:30) as bona fide front-runners, Lovejoy's ceiling-16:13 team average with a 1:44 spread is absolutely good enough to win the region if the pack lands closer to its form line.

The margin lives with the middle. Arjun Sharma (15:59 SB) is the hinge; if he anchors the third scorer inside the top-20 overall and pulls the fourth and fifth (Carter Ewing 16:53, Adam Rogers 17:13 SB) forward into the mid-16s, the math flips fast on a lap course at Harold Patterson. Even small gains-think: 10 to 15 per man from 3-4K-compress the 1-5 split under 90 seconds and claw back double-digit points in a field that stacks tightly between places 20-50. Depth remains a safety net: Kipton DuBois and Haden Snyder have been hovering near the five; one hot day from either gives Lovejoy the displacement they lacked at district.

So what's the "Coach Kelly Magic" they'll need? Controlled first 1K for position (not panic), then a deliberate link-up between Sharma, Ewing, and Rogers from 2K to 4K so nobody gets stranded between packs. If Arceneau and Reid cash top-10 tickets and the 3-5 group averages ~16:30-16:45 with a sub-1:30 gap, Lovejoy looks a lot more like Lovejoy and turns a choppy October into a very dangerous November.

Frisco Wakeland arrives at Region 2-5A looking exactly like a bubble team with real upside. We thnk they're going to be more upside this weekend. On season bests, the Wolverines post a 16:22 team average with a crisp 55-second 1-5 split (Bradley Vacek 15:48, Blake Moon 16:13, Dylan Grzywinski 16:29, Adam Lane 16:37, Hayden Rodgers 16:43). That profile fits the region's qualification blueprint: a reliable low-stick near the top-20 and a tightly braided pack that bleeds as few points as possible in the crowded 3-5 scoring window.

The competitive evidence is encouraging. Wakeland won the District 12-5A title with a 16:52 average and a 1:16 gap (38 points: 1-5-9-11-12), showing they can close a race late when it's tactical. At the Lovejoy XC Fall Festival, arguably the region's best preview, they stacked up as the third-best Region 2 squad on the day, trailing McKinney North and Lovejoy but finishing ahead of Dallas Wilson, Highland Park, and Prosper Walnut Grove. That matters: it shows their current ceiling travels when the field is deep and fast.

The path to Round Rock is clear. If Vacek lands inside the top 15-20 and Moon holds contact through 4K, Wakeland's pack (Grzywinski-Lane-Rodgers) only needs to live in the 16:30-16:45 band with a sub-0.70 gap to push the math firmly into a top-four outcome. Depth helps, too. Daniel Garcia, as a usable No. 6 gives them protection against a mid-race bobble. On a flat, rhythmic loop at Harold Patterson, steady pacing and intentional linking from 2K-4K is the key. Do that, and the Wolverines have every chance to snag one of the four state tickets

Dallas Wilson enters Region 2-5A as a legitimate qualifier threat, especially if the Tigers tighten their five-man linkage. On paper, they look the part of a top-four squad: a 15:54 season-best team average led by sub-15:00 ace Hayden Gaunt (14:57.2) and strong support from John McKenna (15:38.8) and Stephen Grimm (16:06.2). That trio can all live in the lead packs at Harold Patterson; add in Felix Gooden (16:15.2) and State Slusher (16:35.3), and Wilson's ceiling is clear.

The question isn't talent, it's variance. Some of those marks came early (Waxahachie) and haven't been replicated consistently, and the late-season snapshots show why the final ticket will come down to execution: Coach T produced a 16:46 average with a 2:21 spread, Southlake showed promising front-four pop (15:51 average, 0:48 deviation), and Lovejoy revealed both upside (4-18-36 through three) and risk (2:59 1-5 gap).

The roadmap is straightforward. If Gaunt lands inside the top five and McKenna/Grimm shadow the chase group through 4K, Wilson's fate will turn on Gooden/Slusher (and first-off-the-bench Will Barnard) compressing to within ~60-75 seconds of Gaunt rather than drifting toward two minutes. Do that, and keep the team average in the mid-16s on the flat Arlington loops, and the Tigers can blunt the bids from Highland Park, Prosper Walnut Grove, and Frisco Reedy.

Bottom line: Wilson has enough front-end firepower to control the math; if the No. 5 runner holds the line, the Tigers should punch one of the four tickets to Round Rock.