Predictions: Region 4-5A Boys Team Championships

Yesterday, we published our Region 4-5A girls team qualifier predictions, and today is our shot at the 4-5A boys. This is usually the one that has a convoluted preview, trying to select the four teams to make it out. However, this year, I believe we have a clear picture of who the best team is and the other potential advancing teams.

We get to see the region's best teams go head-to-head with everything at stake. Earlier in the season, we had a glimpse of it at the McAllen Bulldog Inv, then at the Hoka McNeil Inv, and finally, a couple of weeks ago, the RGV teams clashed at the RGVCCCA Meet of Champions.

The way things play out in Corpus is always a crap shoot, and you never know what to expect, but to make room for the unexpected. So, without further ado, let's dive into some predictions for the Region 4-6A Boys Championship.

If you're looking for a clear No. 1 at the Region 4-5A boys championship, McAllen checks every box. The Bulldogs have sat at No. 2 in the CCCAT poll for most of the fall, and they pass the eye test with 20/20 clarity: composed through the middle miles, ruthless over the last kilometer, and unflappable in crowded packs. Their season-best profile borders on ridiculous with a 15:50 team average and a microscopic 1-5 spread of 15.96 seconds (Derrick Mendoza 15:46, Aidan De Leon 15:47, Jack Gurwitz 15:47, Joseph Rodriguez 15:49, Samuel Olivares 16:02). That kind of compression wins championships on fast courses and still travels when the footing gets tricky.

Just as important, McAllen didn't hide from top-end smoke. They left the Valley, rolled into the Coach T Invitational against the state's heaviest hitters, and finished sixth overall while beating multiple perennial 6A qualifiers, most notably edging No. 1-ranked Grapevine by two points in a rain-slicked slugfest. The box score tells the story: McAllen's scoring five arrived within thirty seconds of each other, a clinic in pack running under stress. That's the sort of rehearsal you want before Corpus Christi and Round Rock.

What makes this group hard to scheme against is the absence of a single, must-have low-stick, and that's a compliment. Between Mendoza, De Leon, and Gurwitz, the Bulldogs always have a front presence, but the real weapon is that all five scorers live in the same zip code. Add in Olivares' sub-16 ability and senior Jacksen Ahlman's big-meet savvy, complete with state track meet rep, and Coach Luis Cantu can mix lineups without losing identity. However he arranges the seven, the connective tissue looks the same: disciplined first mile, assertive positioning at halfway, and five purple jerseys finishing in a blur.

History says to stay humble. This program dealt with some unlucky breaks over the last four years, and even last season's late fade in the last mile at state was a reminder that nothing is guaranteed over 5,000 meters. But the 2025 version has collected just about every lesson a contender needs. They've learned to manage chaos, to weather storms, and to win the small battles that decide qualification. If they execute the familiar blueprint, tight through two miles, close like a fist, Monday should be less a question of if they advance and more a matter of how emphatically they stamp their ticket on the path to the Round Rock podium.

If you're hunting for another safe pick to punch a ticket out of Region 4-5A, CCCAT No. 5 Weslaco East is right near the top of the list. The Wildcats are on a bona-fide state-meet streak, and the 2025 version looks built to extend it and flirt with the Round Rock podium. They've blended an established senior spine with fresh horsepower: veteran low-stick Aaron Nava now has company up front in brother Alexander, while Joseleovardo Carrizales has matured into a reliable third scorer. Layer in underclass spark from Diego Sanchez and steadiness from Aron Martinez, and you get a lineup that checks both boxes-front presence and depth.

On paper, the profile is championship grade. Their season best composite shows three sub-16 men (A. Nava 15:30.9, A. Nava 15:31.9, Carrizales 15:59.4) with a team average of 15:59 and a sub-minute 1-5 spread (58.2). That compression isn't a one-off; at Hoka McNeil, on a long measured, honest layout against elite fields, they posted a 16:27 average with a 1:01 gap and finished just one point behind No. 1 Grapevine. Translate that to Corpus and you have a group that can weather crowded early miles and still land five in scoring position before the chute fills.

The South Texas resume backs it up. Weslaco East finished runner-up to McAllen at the RGVCCCA Meet of Champions, then controlled District 32-5A with a 16:10 team average and a 1:41 split (32 points: 1-2-4-8-17). That district stat line hints at a valuable lever for regionals: when either Sanchez or Martinez latches onto the Carrizales group, the Wildcats' spread shrinks and the score tumbles. With Omar Sanchez and Kaleb Rivas ready as insurance, the Coach's margin for error improves if the race turns tactical.

So what's the path on Monday? Keep the front three inside the top-15 window, keep the 4-5 cards within ~70 seconds of the No. 1, and lean on the unit's proven habit of finishing together. Do that, and Weslaco East isn't just a strong bet to extend the streak-they're very much in the conversation to arrive in Round Rock with podium credentials.

If you're looking for a sleeper to snag one of Region 4-5A's state tickets, Donna has done just about everything you want to see from August to October. Their arc is clear: open the year competitive, sharpen the pack, and arrive at championship week running both faster and tighter. Back at the Weslaco Invite, Donna finished runner-up to Weslaco East with a 17:54 team average and a 1:24 1-5 split (65 points: 5-8-15-18-19). That's not really a solid footprint, even for August to give hopes of advancing to state, also without a hint of speed and depth of placing five inside the top 2,5 and without leaning on a single overpowering low stick.

Fast-forward to the RGVCCCA Meet of Champions, and the growth shows up on the stopwatch. Donna placed third behind McAllen and Weslaco East, chopping a massive 79 seconds off the team average to 16:35 while tightening the split to 0:44 (156 points: 19-23-29-41-44). That kind of compression is championship useful: when all five scorers are moving in a tight band, you don't need a top-five finisher to post a low number, you just need the pack to beat other teams' fours and fives. It's also a sign of fitness building evenly across the lineup rather than one runner popping a one-off PR.

District 32-5A confirmed the trend wasn't a one-meet spike. Donna again finished second to Weslaco East with virtually the same team average (16:36) and a still stingy 0:51 gap (55 points: 6-10-11-12-16). The scoring pattern is textbook for postseason survival: four in before most programs' thirds, and a fifth close enough to keep the composite low. In a regional field where two or three teams may boast a marquee front-runner, Donna's advantage is that you have to beat all five of their scorers; there's nowhere easy to make up points if they stay glued together.

What does that mean for Monday? The blueprint is already on film. If Donna keeps the team average in the mid-16:30s and holds the 1-5 gap under a minute, they force rival squads to be excellent at all five spots, not just up front. A small bump, say one runner sneaks 10-12 seconds faster or one scorer passes two bodies in the final 400, can swing a dozen points at a regional finish chute. Given their month-long consistency and elite pack discipline, Donna has a very real path to Round Rock: stay compact through 2 miles, surge as a unit over the last kilometer, and let that sub-minute spread do the rest.

If there's a team built to survive the chaos of Region 4-5A's final qualifying spot, it's Boerne Champion. The Chargers' season profile screams "championship-ready": off their season bests, they own a 16:24 team average anchored by Shawn Edwards (16:02) up front, then a tightly spaced scoring trio of Mason Nelson (16:21), Sebastian Carvallo (16:21), and Noah Moreno (16:35) with Brandon Martinez (16:43) closing the door. That's a ~41-second 1-5 gap at peak, and they've replicated that compression in real meets, 0:38 at Hoka McNeil (16:54 avg on a long course) and 1:01 at District 26-5A (16:41 avg). In other words: different venues, same trait, five scorers finishing in a hurry.

Depth is the other lever that gives Champion the edge. With Adan Valdez (16:53) and Pierce Mitchell (17:01) capable of stepping in, they can weather an off-day without watching the average balloon. That safety net mattered at district, where Champion beat Boerne 39-57, pairing a faster average (16:41 vs. 16:54) with a cleaner compression (1:01 vs. 1:30). In a regional finish chute where 10 seconds can equal 20 points, that 29-second gap advantage is the kind of structural cushion that travels.

Make no mistake: Boerne is a live threat. The Greyhounds have podiumed at state the past two seasons and, at their best, have historically raced with single-digit gaps. If they rediscover that classic Greyhound pack, think <45 seconds 1-5-while nudging their 4-5 runners forward 10-15 seconds, they can absolutely flip the script. Their district mark (16:54 avg, 1:30 gap) shows the path: the front is good enough; the back-end tightening is the swing factor. If they compress and drag the average toward 16:40, the final berth becomes a coin flip.

But based on 2025 evidence, Champion owns the higher floor and the clearer blueprint. They've shown multiple times they can keep five inside a 0:45 window, they're coming off the head-to-head win when everything counted, and they've proven their model on both long and fast courses. Add it up, and the advantage for that fourth state ticket leans to Boerne Champion, with Boerne's upset bid hinging on whether they can turn back the clock and pack like the Greyhounds of old.