Predictions: Region 4-5A Girls Team Championships

This season has delivered more of the same at the top programs with depth and culture continuing to stretch the definition of "elite", but it's also elevated several under-the-radar squads that now look ready to crash the conversation if they hit on the day. The margins at regionals are razor-thin: one mistimed move, one late surge, and a team goes from comfortable to clawing. That uncertainty is the fun of it, and Region 4-5A rarely disappoints.

Individually, the headline is speed. Senior front-runners with proven big-race chops meet rising talents who've been living in the 18-low range all fall. Our early favorite is Smithson Valley's Aubrey Pozzi, whose blend of sub-18 strength and closing speed sets the bar-but she won't be alone on the bell lap. Teammate Lilly Koenig, New Braunfels' Savanah Moya, and La Joya Palmview's Genesis Dolores Ramirez have all shown the ceiling to force a fast, honest pace and punish any hesitation.

So, with that stage set, let's dive into Region 4-5A: who controls the front, which packs travel best, and where the decisive moves are most likely to land-and ultimately, who earns the right to race one more time in Round Rock.

Smithson Valley shows up to Region 4-5A looking every bit like a defending champ that reloaded instead of rebuilt. A year ago, coach Trenton Hall mapped a schedule that sharpened his group for a regional crown as well as a state championship; this fall has followed a similar blueprint, only without last year's individual champion, Brady Solansky. That absence could have exposed cracks. Instead, it revealed depth. The Rangers have held firm at No. 2 in the latest CCCAT 5A rankings and, more importantly, have raced like a team that understands how to win in October.

At the front, Aubrey Pozzi has taken the baton and run with it. She owns wins at District 26 (17:58 PR), Canyon Cougar, and Byron Nelson, plus a high-quality 18:15 on the longer Texas A&M layout at Nike South, evidence that she travels well to big stages. Senior teammate Lilly Koenig has delivered exactly what preseason projections hoped for: a reliable No. 2 who can also grab the wheel when the race gets hot (18:01 season best, 18:27 at district, and 18:15 at Nike South). Behind them, the "second wave" is why SV remains so hard to beat. Both Skyler Fonseca (18:39 SB) and Addison Knibbe (18:58 SB) are sub-19 athletes who routinely convert into scoring insurance, while Parker Julian (19:42 SB) shores up the five-spot with experienced pacing. On paper, their personal-best lineup averages 18:39 with a 1-5 split of 1:43-state-caliber speed paired with a gap that, when trimmed, makes them nearly untouchable.

The meet history backs that up. At the Northwest Nelson three-mile, the Rangers beat the CCCAT No. 6 hosts with authority: 31 points, a 17:38 team average, and a razor-sharp 0:49 1-5 split. Drop a performance like that on almost any 5K regional course and you're punching a ticket to Round Rock with hardware in hand. In deeper, faster traffic at Nike South, they were still fifth overall amid multiple top-10 6A programs (18:59 average, 1:51 split), not perfect, but exactly the kind of "stress test" you want before Lubbock and state. Their most recent tune-up again showed a winning profile (30 points, 18:54 average) with a sub-2:00 gap that suggests late-season cohesion is arriving on schedule.

So what decides Region 4-5A? Two levers: how aggressively SV deploys Pozzi/Koenig to control the front, and how tightly Fonseca/Knibbe/Julian lock together through 3-to-5. If the Rangers keep the spread in the ~1:15-1:25 range, something they've already flashed this season, the race for first becomes everyone else's problem. Even if the gap hovers closer to 1:40, their top-end speed and scoring order are strong enough to win a tactical regional and still travel to Round Rock with title ambitions. Add depth pieces Cameryn Cavazos (20:57) and Lilly Hall (21:05) for late-race insulation, and Smithson Valley enters as the team to catch-and, if recent evidence holds, the team most likely to pull away when it matters.

Boerne Champion has learned to thrive in the spotlight even when the brightest star isn't on the starting line. With two-time UIL 5A state champion and Foot Locker national champ Elizabeth Leachman sidelined, the CCCAT No. 9 Chargers have leaned into depth, discipline, and hard pack-running to keep themselves in the Region 4-5A title conversation. They were forced into this reality last fall. Leachman started regionals but couldn't finish, and the other six still punched their ticket to state. That experience is paying dividends in 2025, especially after a rugged District 26-5A run against our projected regional winner, Smithson Valley.

On season bests, Champion's scoring five average 19:21.6 with a tight 1:16 1-5 split-numbers that scream "qualifier" on a fair regional course. Junior Rebecca Bezerra has set the tone out front, headlined by an 18:34 at Hays CISD and a 19:03 at district, plus consistent top-10s at Westlake and Long Creek. Just seconds behind, No. 2 runner Emma Radtke has been the model of reliability (19:06 SB; 19:23 at district) and gives the Chargers a crucial second low-stick when races consolidate. The backbone of Champion's identity, though, is the three-through-five: Addison Graham (19:38), Luciana Zazueta Ibarra (19:40), and Elena Duran (19:50). That trio's ability to arrive within a handful of strides has repeatedly flipped scoring math late, exactly what happened at district, where Champion tied New Braunfels on points but earned the nod when the Chargers' 3-5 all finished ahead of New Braunfels' 4-5.

The blueprint is clear for Corpus Christi: keep Bezerra and Radtke in sight of the front group, and let the 3-5 wave roll through traffic together. When Champion's clumping is on, their mid-pack surge erases gaps and turns close meets. Add proven sixth and seventh options, Payton Kidder (20:36) and Abigail Alger (20:52)-and the Chargers have insulation for any race-day turbulence. With Smithson Valley the on-paper favorite, Boerne Champion's path to the podium (and back to Round Rock) is built on what they've already shown: veteran poise, a trustworthy spread, and a scoring order that gets stronger as the pack tightens. If the Chargers replicate their season-best profile, or even trim the split to ~1:05, their case for the region's No. 2 spot looks very real.

New Braunfels heads to the Region 4-5A Championships with momentum, mettle, and a clear identity. The Unicorns tied Boerne Champion for runner-up at the rugged 26-5A meet and won the tiebreaker on the sixth runner, a meaningful proof of depth when it mattered. Their district stat line (58 points off a 19:36 team average and a 2:01 1-5 gap) came against a Smithson Valley squad that's among the state's best, which makes New Braunfels' performance even more encouraging. In a region where margin for error is razor-thin, that sixth-runner edge is exactly the kind of separator that can punch tickets to Round Rock.

The headline is simple: New Braunfels owns a true low-stick in Savanah Moya, and she gives the group a fighting chance in any team score. Moya's season resume screams "title threat", with her 17:43 at Lovejoy for the win, another sub-18 again at Westlake, fifth at Hoka McNeil (18:25), and 18:32 for third at district. When your No. 1 is reliably in the top five, everyone else's job gets easier. Just as important, sophomore Ava Briley has come on strong at the right time; her 18:39 PR at district elevated New Braunfels' front-end power and created the kind of 1-2 punch that travels well to championship races.

Behind them, the pathway is clear: keep compressing. Mara Fulmer's breakthrough 19:44 at district pulled her into the sub-20 club, and if Issla Moya (20:13) and Sydney Wantuck (20:26) close the window to Fulmer by 15-25 seconds on the fast, flat Corpus layout, the Unicorns' 1-5 gap shrinks into podium-ready territory. The season-best profile (19:21 team average; 2:43 1-5 split) is skewed by Savanah's sub-18 ceiling, but that's a feature New Braunfels can leverage, the low stick up front while the three-through-five tighten the screws. Add in insurance from Yazmin Torres (20:29) and Raeleigh Hudnall (20:42), and you have the same tiebreak resilience that decided the district.

Tactically, this sets up as a "two fronts" race: let Moya (and now Briley) mix with the leaders, then commit the 3-5 pack to mid-race moves that turn 20:20s into high-19s. On a coastal course where wind can be a factor, drafting and disciplined surges after 3K will be key. If New Braunfels keeps the 1-5 gap at ~1:45 or better and lands three in the top 25, they're not just a qualifier-they're a podium candidate. The Unicorns showed at district that they can win the fine-print battles; replicate that composure in Corpus, and they'll be counting singlets in the finish chute with a state berth firmly in sight.

If there's a "coin-flip" race anywhere at Region 4-5A, it's the final girls team berth. Call it a five-way tie, McAllen Nikki Rowe, Mission Sharyland, Edinburg Vela, Weslaco East, and Leander have all shown just enough firepower (and just enough volatility) to make this a last-kilometer decision. The Valley's week-to-week shuffle has been real, and with only one of these squads likely to advance, nobody has room for a wobble. On paper, each has a credible path; in practice, they might need a touch better than their best.

McAllen Nikki Rowe's case starts with consistency and compression. At their best, the Warriors own a commendable 19:59 team average, and the real separator is a 54-second 1-5 split. That's how you win bubble races. Senior low-man Jacqueline Garcia has quietly been rock-solid (19:24 SB; 19:33 at district, plus a runner-up finish earlier in September), and the backbone trio of Mariana Varela, Alessandra Silva, and Jocelyn Garza living around 20:00 gives Rowe that dependable mid-race presence. Rowe was second at the RGVCCCA Meet of Champions, finishing ahead of Palmview, Vela, and Sharyland, evidence that they can beat multiple contenders in one shot when their pack is clicking.

Sharyland's argument hinges on top-end punch and just-enough depth. Sofia Lauren Garza is one of Region 4's premier front-runners (18:18 district title; 18:19 runner-up at RGVCCCA), and junior Fernanda Espinosa has a proven big-meet gear (19:18 SB) that tends to surface when it matters. The candid concern is the 3:35 1-5 split at season-best levels; wide gaps can get punished in a cut-throat field, but if the 3-5 group rides Garza/Espinosa's draft longer, Sharyland's ceiling rises fast. Remember: they just won District 31-5A by a single point. Championship composure travels.

Edinburg Vela offers a balanced blueprint: a true low-stick plus legitimate 2-3 support. Dana Rodriguez (18:27 SB) is a steady front-pack scorer, with McKenzie Canales (19:01) and Anastacia Cuellar (19:29) forming one of the stronger 2-3 punches in this bubble group. At their best, Vela's 19:48 average is the fastest of the Valley trio here; the task is tightening a 2:38 split when the race gets chaotic. Note the proof point: Vela finished second and well clear of both Rowe and Sharyland at the McAllen Bulldog Invitational. That shows they can land a decisive result in a deep local field.

Weslaco East feels like the dark-horse that isn't really dark. The Wildcats won District 32-5A with a tidy 20:08 average, and their season-best profile (19:40 average; 2:00 gap) plays in any advancing scenario. The headliner is Mattie Castillo (18:26 SB), whose low-score potential lets Cyrah Crow and Andrea Quintero settle into optimal, not desperate, moves. If East can keep Nos. 4-5 latched a few seconds longer, turning 20:20s into high-19s, their formula looks eerily similar to successful Region 4 qualifiers of recent vintage.

Then there's Leander, the wild card from up north, and a problem if they reproduce their district rhythm. The Lions posted a 19:49 team average and, crucially, a 51-second 1-5 split at district. That kind of compression is how you steal spots in crowded finish chutes. Some of their season numbers (20:11 average; ~2:04 gap) are noisier, but when Ava Tannehill (18:59) fronts a pack that refuses to fracture, Kristi Lopez, Kate Salazar, Camry Ojeda, and Katelyn Horvath, Leander has turned in 19-mid averages and looks like a "shoe-in" version of itself. If they keep the gap sub-60 again, they'll be hard to keep out.

So who claims a spot?

Rowe's dependable split and recent head-to-head checks the consistency box; Sharyland brings the highest single-runner upside; Vela owns the strongest 1-3 on paper; Weslaco East has the cleanest, championship-ready profile; and Leander has the most dangerous pack when it's humming.

It might be close until the last 800 meters, turns someone's strength into the tiebreaker. Keep your eyes on pack integrity: whichever quintet leaves the smallest holes between jerseys likely walks or runs out with that fourth golden ticket.