Boys compete at the 2025 Nike South Invitational
The morning sun rises over College Station, spilling gold light across the manicured fields of the Dale Watts Cross Country Course. The air is cool, the grass still damp from a late-autumn dew, and the line of team tents glows in the first streaks of daylight. For the first time in Nike Cross Regionals South history, the chase for Portland will not unfold beneath the pines of The Woodlands. The meet's new home, the Dale Watts Cross Country Course, marks both a change in venue and a subtle shift in the region's balance of power.
Runners and coaches alike describe the Watts course as "honest." It's fast and fair, rolling gently through open stretches before darting into tree-lined turns. Designed to host championship racing, it's measured with precision, an NCAA-caliber venue that has tested the SEC and South Central's best. But there's nuance: some believe it runs a touch long, perhaps 50 to 100 meters beyond an exact 5,000. What's certain is that it rewards strength, control, and the ability to close hard in the final straight. "You can't fake fitness at Watts," one Texas coach said earlier this fall. "It's the kind of course that exposes who's ready in November."
And this November, the South region is loaded-particularly on the boys' side.
Texas Still Rules the South
Not many regions in the country match Texas for depth. From suburban Dallas to the Panhandle, teams have run historically fast this fall, and the road to Portland again runs through the Lone Star State.
Southlake Carroll: The Dynasty Rolls On
Seven straight UIL 6A state titles, three individual crowns for Caden Leonard, and a culture defined by execution, Southlake Carroll remains the gold standard. Their dominance this season is a study in timing: they spent much of the fall racing incomplete, resting Leonard and fellow frontrunner Kai Gutierrez through the regular season. Yet even with a partial squad, Carroll rarely lost.
At full strength, they're devastating. Leonard (14:29) and Gutierrez (14:37) provide the region's most potent 1-2 punch, both running faster this year than any athlete in last season's NXR South field. Add in Michael Fuller (14:48), Claudio Auns (15:11), and Grant Norgart (15:14), and Carroll's average time sits at 14:52 with a 45-second gap that would win most regional meets by daylight. Their experience at Nike Cross Nationals is unmatched, and this fall's iteration may be their most balanced since the 2019 title team.
Carroll's biggest advantage is depth. Behind their scoring five are Jaxon Glenn (15:17) and Evan O'Donnell (15:35), both capable of stepping in with sub-16 performances on any given day. "The margins get razor thin at NXR," said one local coach. "Carroll's sixth man could be a scorer for half the teams in the field." If they execute as they have all year, they're not just a lock for NXN-they're a national podium threat once again.
Keller: Precision and Consistency
Where Carroll wins with top-end dominance, Keller thrives on precision. Their data is remarkably consistent: a 15:09 team average, 38-second 1-5 spread, and a lineup that runs like a metronome. Boston Bowcutt (14:49), Anthony Abeyta (15:04), and Heath Shiflett (15:12) lead a group that packs together within seconds, race after race.
Keller's hallmark is efficiency, no wasted moves, no breakdowns. They may not have the single-digit scorer like Leonard, but they counter with collective compression that few can match. In a meet where low sticks are gold, their stability could turn silver. Expect Keller to sit in the top five throughout the midrace and surge late if teams ahead falter. Their statistical profile screams reliability, and in a field this deep, that could be their ticket to an NXN berth.
Bridgeland: The Houston Powerhouse
Last year's NXN qualifier Bridgeland returns nearly intact, and their early-season marks confirm they've built on that foundation. Led by Griffen Saacke (14:40), the Bears boast one of the best frontmen in Texas and strong depth behind him in Layton Carlisle (15:24), Maddox McCallister (15:25), and Dean Rosales (15:27). Their 15:18 average and 56-second split put them on par with Northwest Nelson and El Paso Eastwood.
Bridgeland's strength lies in adaptability. They've performed across every kind of course, from humid Houston flats to high-energy big invites like Strake Jesuit and Marcus, and remain steady. Having gone toe-to-toe with Carroll and Keller in championship settings before, they know the stakes. Their challenge will be converting that composure into a top-two finish in College Station. But as last year proved, few programs handle the regional spotlight better.
Vandegrift: Rising in the Rankings
If there's a dark horse within Texas' elite, it's 2024 NXN at-large bid qualifier Austin Vandegrift. Four consecutive runner-up finishes at the UIL 6A state meet, the Vipers are consistent and feature one of the youngest yet most promising rosters in the South. Kai McCullough (14:41) has become their anchor, and alongside Miles Nutt (15:17) and Avinash Dewagan (15:32), they've developed a front three that consistently pushes for top-20 finishes in major fields.
Their 15:24 average and 1:13 spread might not leap off the page, but the trendline does. Over the past month, Vandegrift's scoring five have dropped over 20 seconds collectively. There are two things going for Vandy: 1- they have Collin Goodwin back in the fold, and he is ready to roll, judging his state meet race of 15:38, 2- they're peaking at the right time, a hallmark of teams that overperform at regionals. If McCullough delivers a sub-15:00 effort and the pack tightens, Vandegrift could disrupt the established order.
Depth Behind the Front Line
Beyond those four, El Paso Eastwood, Waxahachie and El Paso Franklin round out Texas' elite. Eastwood, led by Noah Loweree (15:08) and Noah Garcia (15:20), might be the state's most cohesive pack-running team, averaging 15:24 with an astonishing 27-second spread. Waxahachie, meanwhile, features Cooper Grady (15:04) and Brock Morales (15:11), two dependable scorers who helped push them into the state's top ten.
The takeaway is clear: if Texas sends three teams to NXN again, no one would be surprised. Its combination of elite low sticks, experience, and course familiarity at Dale Watts gives the Lone Star State a decisive edge heading into race day.
Across State Lines: Challengers from the Rest of the South
If Texas dominates the depth charts, its neighbors bring the intrigue. From Arkansas to Louisiana, a handful of programs carry the type of firepower that could turn this first-ever College Station regional into something more than a Texas coronation.
Bentonville (AR): The Standard-Bearer Returns
For nearly a decade, Bentonville High School has been the model of consistency in Arkansas and a legitimate regional power. Their ninth AAA 6A state title this fall was no surprise, but their personnel overhaul was. After losing two All-Americans from 2024, Bentonville retooled with transfer additions Brian Burns (14:59) and Sean Burns (15:22), who promptly went 1-2 at the state meet.
That injection of top-end speed transformed their team profile overnight. They now combine experienced depth with genuine low sticks, making them once again dangerous in the NXR environment. Bentonville's win over a short-handed Carroll team at the Southlake 5K Invite back in August proved they can mix with Texas' elite, and this time, they'll see them at full strength.
Historically, Bentonville's runners handle fast, firm courses well, and the Watts layout may be tailor-made for their long-stride pacing. Don't be surprised if they're sitting inside the top five through 3K, forcing the big Texas schools to respond.
Oklahoma: Balance and Rising Stars
The Sooner State programs arrive in College Station with confidence and legitimate credentials.
Deer Creek High School, the 6A state champion, has been nearly flawless all fall. Their state meet performance, a 15:55 average and a stunning 28-second 1-5 compression, showcased the kind of balance usually reserved for NXN-level teams. Colson Robertson (15:42) leads a squad that refuses to fracture; their scoring five typically finish within half a minute of one another, a huge asset in regional scoring.
Behind them, Ponca City features one of the region's most talked-about talents in Adam King, who ran a blistering 14:30 to win the Kelly Chaney Invitational as a freshman. His presence alone changes the dynamic: he's a true NXN individual qualifier candidate and gives Oklahoma a front-runner to match the Texan elites.
Mustang, Edmond North, and Jenks all bring seasoned depth and proven championship experience. Edmond North's combination of Gavin Wagner (15:32) and Madden Rutherford (15:35) gives them a powerful top-end tandem, while Jenks' Brody Maasen (15:14) is among the most battle-tested runners in the region.
Together, these Oklahoma teams have quietly built a collective reputation - consistent, aggressive, and well-prepared. If the conditions are humid or the pace lagging, expect one of them to break into the top ten overall.
Mississippi: Tupelo and Desoto Central Push Forward
The Magnolia State's programs may not have the national brand power of Texas or Arkansas, but they bring individual brilliance and solid team metrics.
Tupelo High School's Andrew Brown is the headline act, his 15:04 win at the Fleet Feet Tupelo Invitational turned heads region-wide. Backed by Mac Wilemon (16:21) and Burton Potts (16:27), Tupelo's 16:19 team average puts them squarely among the South's stronger smaller-state programs.
Desoto Central counterbalances that with a true pack identity. Averaging 16:23 with just a 37-second spread, they're the kind of steady unit that often outperforms flashier rosters when the heat rises and the pace slows. Both teams will likely land in the top 15, with Brown eyeing an individual NXN berth.
Louisiana: Jesuit's Journey and the Travel Gauntlet
If there's one non-Texas team capable of winning NXR South, it's New Orleans Jesuit.
They already own a resume built for belief. Jesuit claimed the Nike South Invitational title earlier this season, beating a Carroll team running without Leonard and Gutierrez, and followed it with a runner-up finish at the Great American XC Festival in North Carolina, one of the nation's premier meets.
Their performance trends are extraordinary:
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15:30 team average, 0:34 1-5 split at Nike South.
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15:40 average, 0:35 split at Great American - second only to Christ School.
With Brady Monahan (15:11), Joe Accardo (15:27), David Quintana (15:29), and Connor Fanberg (15:30) all running within seconds of one another, Jesuit brings elite-level compression and confidence built on national exposure.
But the challenge is timing. Louisiana's state meet runs just five days before NXR South in Natchitoches, forcing a tight turnaround and nearly 12 hours of total travel within a week. "That's a brutal swing," one coach noted. "You win your state title on Monday, drive home, and then hit the road again midweek to race Carroll and Bentonville."
Even so, Jesuit's pack makes them an undeniable threat. If they can manage recovery and logistics, they're not only a podium contender, they're a legitimate NXN qualifier threat.
Brother Martin, meanwhile, looms as Louisiana's next-best. They finished 11th at last year's NXR and return most of their core. If the race turns tactical, their experience could earn them a top-10 finish again.
The Individual Race: Leonard's Legacy and the Next Generation
The 2025 boys' field might be one of the deepest in NXR South history.
At the top stands Caden Leonard (Southlake Carroll), the reigning three-time UIL 6A state champion and defending regional winner. His 14:29 season best and unmatched postseason consistency make him the clear favorite. Leonard's racing IQ is as sharp as his fitness; he rarely leads early but almost always closes best. As one observer put it, "Leonard doesn't chase chaos, he waits for the field to fold."
Challenging him is an emerging wave of new talent.
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Adam King (Ponca City, OK) - the phenom freshman who's already run 14:30.
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Graham Hummel (Home School Athletic Association) - another 14:29 performer with a fearless racing style.
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Kai Gutierrez (Carroll) - perhaps the best No. 2 runner in the nation, capable of sub-14:40 performances.
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Noah Strohman (Holliday) and Ruel Newberry (Guyer) - proven big-meet racers with top-five potential.
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Griffen Saacke (Bridgeland) and Kai McCullough (Vandegrift) - smooth and seasoned.
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Brady Monahan (Jesuit) - Louisiana's ace and the most battle-tested in multi-state competition.
Expect a lead pack of eight to ten through 3,000 meters before Leonard's trademark surge in the closing stretch at Watts. With its long final straight, this course could reward his patience and punishing finish.
Numbers That Tell the Story
A few analytical notes stand out heading into race week:
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Team Averages: The median of the top ten teams sits at 15:23, the fastest collective in NXR South history.
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Compression Matters: Every NXN-qualifying team from 2015-2024 had a 1-5 spread under 50 seconds. Carroll (0:45), Keller (0:38), Bentonville (0:44), Deer Creek (0:19), and Jesuit (0:34) all meet that threshold.
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Front-Runners Win Championships: 8 of the last 10 NXR South team titles went to squads with an individual in the top 10 overall - advantage Carroll, Jesuit, and Bentonville.
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Course Impact: The slightly long 5K at Watts (≈+10 seconds) could neutralize pure milers and favor strength-based runners from the northern states (OK, AR, MS).
Predictions: Two Tickets, One Region, No Margin
The 2025 Nike South Regional has all the makings of a classic - a new course, a deep field, and dynasties colliding under unfamiliar skies.
Projected NXN Auto Qualifiers : (1) Southlake Carroll (TX) - Too much depth, too much experience. Leonard and Gutierrez provide unmatched low sticks. :(2) Bridgeland (TX) - Veteran group peaking at the right time; Saacke leads a proven lineup.
At-Large Contenders:
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Jesuit (LA) - If fresh, could easily jump into an auto spot.
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Bentonville (AR) - The Burns brothers' addition makes them dangerous.
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Keller (TX) - Most consistent data profile in the field.
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Deer Creek (OK) - Efficient pack running, poised to surprise.
Individual NXN Qualifiers (projected):
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Caden Leonard (TX, Carroll) - Champion repeat.
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Adam King (OK, Ponca City) - Top freshman in the country.
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Graham Hummel (TX, HSAA) - Wild card who could lead early.
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Noah Strohman (TX, Holliday) - Experienced and fearless.
Closing Thoughts
The NXR South region has long been defined by dominance, by Texas teams sweeping podiums and rewriting the record books. But 2025 feels different. A new course, new variables, and a new generation of challengers have shifted the calculus.
As the gun sounds at Dale Watts, expect chaos early and clarity late. The front-runners will test the line, the pack-runners will grind the middle, and by the final 800 meters, the South's best will be racing not just for a ticket to Portland, but for the right to define a new era in one of high school cross country's deepest regions.