Canyon Randall returns a talented front four, but the mystery of who the fifth runner will be makes it hard to evaluate the Raiders.
Starting tomorrow, Texas MileSplit will count down to the first full weekend of cross country meets by recognizing one girls program and one boys program per day. These 12 "Programs to Watch" are the result of two weeks of research, but are not intended to be true rankings. Rather, they are teams that stood out in some way (or in multiple ways) based on recent results and returning strength (more on the statistics used in these evaluations below). The countdown ends on Friday, August 22nd, just as the fall season really starts to crank up. In the meantime, though, I would like to share with you some overall impressions gleaned from all the information I considered during this process, and also recognize a few programs that just missed the final cut for getting into the countdown.
Evaluation Methods | Overall Impressions | Honorable Mention
Evaluation Methods
With all the data that MileSplit makes available, it can be overwhelming trying to find the right indicators of future success. All of the following pieces of information were considered in selecting the countdown programs:
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Returning cross country rankings. Full 5K and 3-Mile rankings were used in both boys and girls evaluations, and of course the 2-Mile returning rankings were also factored in on the girls side..
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Team 1600 & 3200 track rankings. Using returning runners only, I looked at the teams that had the best 5-person combined results in the two longest track races.
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State meet results. I went back three years to look for teams that have been riding a wave of recent success.
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Year-to-year improvement. Again, I used three years of data, comparing a school's projected average time (from returning runners the previous season) to the same school's actual final average time.
Overall Impressions
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Texas is hard. The variability of courses in the state is extreme - not only the differences in length (2 Miles, 3 Miles, 5K) but also the differences in terrain and difficulty. Throw in the frequency of reclassification, and it's difficult to use past results to project future success, especially when girls' teams move up from the 2 Mile to the 5K.
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The smaller classifications are crazy. Looking at the top 3 finishers at the state meet over the last 3 years, it's not uncommon for there to be 6 or 7 different schools that appear at least once over that time frame. In the 2A girls, there were nine different schools, meaning that not a single school has repeated a top-3 performance since 2011!
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I like bullet points. They're great for organizing my thoughts, and I think they make the article look attractive.
Honorable Mention Teams
These teams were strongly considered for the countdown, but didn't make the final list. All of them are strong, competitive teams, and some of them are likely to end up in the true final top 12 by the end of the season. Each of them simply got edged out by a team that was a little better in one particular way or another. As a former coach, I wouldn't want to have to beat any of these squads in a meet that matters!
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Strake Jesuit Boys
| 1) Andrew Hebert | 15:45.10 | ||
| 2) Blake Bordelon | 16:07.67 | ||
| 3) Anthony Schneider | 16:46.25 | ||
| 4) Braxton Mills | 16:49.43 | ||
| 5) Maxwell Jarvie | 16:55.33 | ||
| Average Time: 16:28.76 Total Time: 1:22:23.78 1-5 Split: 1:10.23 | |||
| 6) Hugo Gonzalez | 16:56.04 | ||
| 7) Joseph Scott | 17:25.39 | ||
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Lewisville Hebron Boys
| 1) Ethan Davis | 16:06.00 | ||
| 2) Michael Summers | 16:23.00 | ||
| 3) Jordan Bertrand | 16:50.00 | ||
| 4) Drew Cummings | 16:51.20 | ||
| 5) Brandon Harrison | 17:41.06 | ||
| Average Time: 16:46.25 Total Time: 1:23:51.26 1-5 Split: 1:35.06 | |||
| 6) Mason Richter | 18:31.90 | ||
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Leander Rouse Boys
| 1) Suede Mora | 16:21.66 | ||
| 2) Logan Zipkes | 16:35.63 | ||
| 3) Mitchell Ballis | 16:46.16 | ||
| 4) Conner Brooks | 16:52.57 | ||
| 5) Nico Escobar | 17:10.75 | ||
| Average Time: 16:45.35 Total Time: 1:23:46.77 1-5 Split: 49.09 | |||
| 6) Luis Jovel | 17:59.42 | ||
| 7) Justin Campbell | 18:06.20 | ||
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Katy Morton Ranch Boys
| 1) Chris Winski | 15:55.18 | ||
| 2) Marcus Todd | 15:56.57 | ||
| 3) Julio Salazar | 16:28.05 | ||
| 4) David Winski | 16:28.52 | ||
| 5) James Jones | 16:31.65 | ||
| Average Time: 16:15.99 Total Time: 1:21:19.97 1-5 Split: 36.47 | |||
| 6) Alejandro Jaramillo | 16:55.88 | ||
| 7) Josh Duarte | 18:14.15 | ||
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Canyon Randall Girls
| 1) Karyss Betzen | 18:33.48 | ||
| 2) Erika DeWitt | 18:41.48 | ||
| 3) Brianna Hernandez | 19:48.51 | ||
| 4) Adriana Martinez | 19:49.34 | ||
| Average Time: 19:13.20 Total Time: 1:16:52.81 1-4 Split: 1:15.86 | |||
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Katy Seven Lakes Girls
| 1) Lourdes Vivas | 18:25.25 | ||
| 2) Kacie Jo Corbin | 18:31.69 | ||
| 3) Laura Broman | 18:47.66 | ||
| 4) Sydney Gandy | 19:40.64 | ||
| 5) Tori Welkener | 20:44.26 | ||
| Average Time: 19:13.90 Total Time: 1:36:09.50 1-5 Split: 2:19.01 | |||
| 6) Caitlin Causey | 20:56.06 | ||
| 7) Jenae Simoneaux | 21:21.69 | ||
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Katy Girls
| 1) Emily Voss | 18:27.28 | ||
| 2) Katy Pfile | 18:47.28 | ||
| 3) Tea Rodriguez | 19:17.95 | ||
| 4) Katie Pfile | 19:36.30 | ||
| 5) Aaliyah Nelson | 19:48.04 | ||
| Average Time: 19:11.37 Total Time: 1:35:56.85 1-5 Split: 1:20.76 | |||
| 6) Marisa Madison | 19:50.09 | ||
| 7) Jessica Thurman | 20:39.80 | ||
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San Antonio Antonian Girls
| 1) Robin Montemayor | 11:29.00 | ||
| 2) Allyson Gomez | 11:43.00 | ||
| 3) Rachel Frei | 11:49.00 | ||
| 4) Sarah Vasquez | 12:24.60 | ||
| 5) Amanda Pina | 12:31.50 | ||
| Average Time: 11:59.42 Total Time: 59:57.10 1-5 Split: 1:02.50 | |||
| 6) Christina Rodriguez | 12:35.00 | ||
| 7) Abigail Lozano | 12:55.00 | ||
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College Station Girls
| 1) Kelsie Warren | 11:24.60 | ||
| 2) Leah Lewis | 12:01.30 | ||
| 3) Madeline Dungan | 12:12.30 | ||
| 4) Cayleigh Lekven | 12:20.80 | ||
| 5) Gabbi Orzabal | 12:25.90 | ||
| Average Time: 12:04.98 Total Time: 1:00:24.90 1-5 Split: 1:01.30 | |||
| 6) Abigail Kellstedt | 12:46.70 | ||
| 7) Brynna Lekven | 12:54.73 | ||