Caden Leonard, Benjamin Montgomery, and Blake Bullard paced the 2023 UIL 6A state meet last fall in Round Rock
Last weekend wrapped up what some would call the first big weekend in this year's cross-country season. We got our first chance to see some of the state's ranked teams go head-to-head along with some impressive times.
This weekend is set to be no different as the state's top two teams according to the CCCAT Poll, Southlake Carroll and Bridgeland will make their debuts in their areas of the state.
This weekend will be important in assessing how accurate preseason projections were and how in shape our top teams and individuals are. No two meets or courses are the same but we can still derive value from comparing results and seeing who lives up to expectations to start the year.
So, let's take a look at some of the important things to watch heading into this weekend's slate of meets.
Caden Leonard and Southlake Carroll's Proper Debut
Naturally, this list has to start with the team and individual who rounded out last year's season at the top of the pile. Southlake Carroll has been nothing short of relentless in their pursuit of greatness over the last half-decade that even their tradition looks up to.
Their resumption of that pursuit properly begins this weekend at the Southlake #1 XC Invite.
While we have seen Carroll race this year, they are yet to run their full squad but we know we'll see Caden Leonard this weekend which likely means we'll see everything the Dragons have to offer.
Leonard comes into this season as the favorite to defend his state title which he earned in a tight race last year that saw him pushed all the way by Hudson Haley and Benjamin Montgomery.
He narrowly missed out on the 3200m state title in the spring but came away with the win in the 1600m after an incredible performance.
Leonard comes into this season with personal bests of 4:02.46/8:51.57/14:55.80 which place him as the state's best all-around distance talent.
This weekend is likely also the first time we'll see Blake Bullard competing on the UIL stage since he finished fourth at the state meet last year. Bullard is a unique athlete as he competes primarily in the triathlon rather than being a running-exclusive athlete like most top talents.
He's been crushing it on the triathlon circuit and will likely use cross-country as a building block to compete at the World Championship later in the year. It remains to be seen how his activity in the triathlon space will affect his performance this fall, but I think he'll be fine.
Bullard has proven to be an elite contributor for this Carroll team regardless of his other obligations and this weekend should give us an idea as to where his fitness is heading into this season.
Another key guy to watch for this weekend is senior Griffin Cords who is the top Carroll runner that we've seen compete so far this year.
Cords largely served as a depth guy on last year's team but he'll play a bigger role in the number three spot in 2024. He had a great track season which saw him run 4:19.33 and 9:07.54 which are both personal bests. Couple this with the 9:20.65 he ran at the Southlake Carroll 2-Mile and Cords looks to be in good shape heading into this weekend.
As for the meet itself, last year's Southlake #1 XC Invite played a pivotal role in predicting the outcome of last year's state championship.
Carroll boys compete at their 2-mile time trial
We saw all three of the state's podium teams with Southlake Carroll, Austin Vandegrift, and McKinney Boyd finishing first, third, and second respectively. While this year's meet doesn't return as much depth as last year's, it'll still provide an important baseline to work from when comparing results and seeing what kind of shape the Dragons are in.
Keep in mind that last year's meet was listed as a three-mile race rather than a true 5000m it's possible we might see the same thing this year since it's the same course, however it is listed as 5,000m and not three-miles.
In terms of predicting Southlake Carroll's performance, it is possible we could see Leonard take the win fairly easily in this weekend's race, although he could get a push from a couple of runners. He finished second in last year's race in a time of 14:32.30 and I think this year it's realistic to see him around the 14:20 mark given how his season ended up going last year and the progression he made in the spring.
Blake Bullard will be more of a wild card in terms of predicting his performance as cross-country isn't his focus this year and it's hard to get a baseline from triathlon results. That being said I think we should see him around 15-20 seconds off Leonard as a ballpark number.
Bullard had his best performances towards the end of the year last year and I think we'll probably see the same thing from him this year. Also, keep an eye on what he's doing in the triathlon sphere because it's truly an impressive thing to see.
Ideally, Cords will be as close to the front as possible and I think that if he can drag those fourth and fifth guys up with him then Carroll will get what they want in terms of their split. Overall, Southlake Carroll looks to have yet another strong team heading into this weekend and they should start the season hot with an easy victory at the Southlake #1 XC Invite.
Bridgeland Takes On A Tough Challenge To Start The Year
Moving on to CCCAT #2 Bridgeland, the Bears will face a much tougher challenge in terms of their race this weekend at the Brenham Hillacious Invitational.
While this meet may not be as well known as some of the other ones we've seen including Southlake's meet, it derives its name from the term "hellacious" for a reason.
We've already seen Bridgeland's full squad this year in their impressive midnight time trial from a few weeks ago. However, this weekend will give us not only our first proper look over 5000m, but it'll show us how the Bears handle adversity on the state's toughest course.
Naturally, getting to see the Bears compete means getting to see more of Benjamin Montgomery who's developed into one of the state's best all-around talents. He took home bronze at last year's UIL State Championship but improved to gold in the spring as he won the 3200m in a blazing fast time of 8:51.50.
Montgomery comes into the 2024 season with personal bests of 4:13.02/8:51.50/15:00.20, although he also ran 14:38.11 which came on the track at TDF. He recently opened up his season at Bridgeland's aforementioned midnight time trial and he ran well, clocking 9:10.98 in a race where he ran by himself at the front.
Montgomery looks to be in great shape to start the year and it'll be interesting to see what he does to start the season.
This weekend will also be the first time we see Bridgeland's new addition Griffen Saacke suit up for the Bears at a proper cross-country meet. For those who don't know, Saacke transferred over from Katy Tompkins and marks a key addition for a Bridgeland team looking to challenge for the state title this year.
Saacke comes into this season with personal bests of 4:16.51/9:05.91/15:32.80 to go along with an individual qualification for the 3200m that came in May.
He also had a solid start to his season at Bridgeland's time trial as he ran 9:29.73 in a race where he also ran by himself. Considering his circumstances with changing programs and training, Saacke appears to have adapted well and will look to start the season on the right front on Brenham's tough course this weekend.
Perhaps the most interesting and pivotal part of Bridgeland's roster is their third through seventh runners. Normally there would be a decent gap between these spots, however, Bridgeland presents a unique situation where any of these runners can be interchanged depending on the week.
The guy who's been most consistently at the front of this group is junior Kyle Pawlak. Pawlak has played a big role for the Bears since his freshman year and he looks to be in a good position to do so with even more impact this year.
He comes into the fall with personal bests of 4:34.31/9:35.67/16:02.10 but I suspect these won't stand for long. This is because Pawlak opened up his season with a 9:35.98 at Bridgeland's time trial and starting the season within 0.32 seconds of your personal best is always a good sign.
Several other names to watch are Nazim Benguedda who ran 9:36.74, Maddox McCallister who ran 9:37.82, and Layton Carlisle who ran 9:40.27. I'd keep an eye on Benguedda in particular as he's improved a ton since last season and looked like he could've pushed and been several seconds quicker in the time trial. The key with these guys is they all run super close together and are reliable, look for them to demonstrate that this weekend.
In terms of the meet itself, I'd argue there's not a more difficult meet in the state than Brenham. The first mile is a windy section that leads into a steep incline and a fast downhill while the second mile presents an extremely steep ascent followed by another winding section. Finally, the final mile features a long gradual uphill which is then met with a steeper uphill section before finally going flat at the finish. The course is a true test of mental resolve and will break you if you don't know what you're in for or aren't fully confident in your fitness.
In terms of predictions, Montgomery ran 15:56.00 last year but this is a course where it can be hard to improve drastically. It's hard to put a number on it, but if Montgomery ends up anywhere from the 15:40s-15:50s then I'd say he's had a successful race. As for Saacke, if he's in the range of 20 seconds or so off Montgomery then that's probably a good starting point for him to maintain the gap from the time trial.
As for the rest of Bridgeland's pack, the focus should be more on closing the gap to Saacke and minimizing their split. Regardless of whatever times they run this weekend, they've already shown us they're fit so if they can keep the gap to Saacke in the range of 5-10 seconds then I think they've had a successful weekend.
Brenham is truly an anomaly when it comes to courses, it's the epitome of putting your guys through early-season pain to prepare them for the races that matter and that's exactly what Coach Waters is doing. The last thing that's expected is for your guys to run personal bests at Brenham and that'll be reflected in their attitudes this weekend. If the Bears come out of this weekend with a solid split and marginal improvements from last year's performance here, I think we'll consider it a success.