The start of the 2023 Nike South Boys Elite Race
For several years now, the Nike South Invitational has been one of the most coveted meets in the Houston area. The context of the meet is steeped in rich history, whether it be the fact that it's hosted by The Woodlands or the fact it's the same course as NXR South, this course has so many things attached to it.
While I'd argue that the meet was primarily a Houston area showcase up until recent years, its emergence as a meet that teams from all over the state and beyond travel for has been greatly beneficial for competition. Teams get the an early opportunity to experience the course prior to NXR South. It's become a venue where we get to see teams test out their midseason form against one another, and that's what we love to see as cross-country fans.
So, let's dive into this weekend's upcoming Nike South Invitational and see how it stacks up to last year, as well as what we can expect to see throughout this talented boy's field.
2023 Nike South Inv. Elite Boys Race
2023 Meet Recap
To properly set the stage for this weekend's meet, it's important to set a baseline of expectations and the best way to do that is by looking at last year's meet. We were spoiled for competition at last year's meet as several state qualifying teams were in the field including eventual state champions Southlake Carroll and a host of state qualifiers including Katy Tompkins, College Park, Bridgeland, The Woodlands, Katy, Clear Lake, and Deer Park.
Heading into last year's race on the team side, it was more a question of how close a team like Tompkins or Bridgeland could keep it to Southlake Carroll rather than anyone having a viable shot of winning. This sentiment was reflected in how the race eventually played out as Carroll took the team title by scoring 27 points off a 15:25 team average with a 32-second split. Katy Tompkins finished second with 124 points and a 16:01 team average while Bridgeland finished third with 144 points and a 16:07 team average.
In total, half of the 6A division's qualifiers for the 2023 UIL State Championship competed at the Nike South Invitational. This race has proven to be a great indicator of future success on a statewide level which is why it's become such a popular destination for state powerhouses and hopefuls alike.
On the individual side, last year's meet was equally as important in helping predict the outcome of the state meet. Participants in last year's race include eventual state champion Caden Leonard, 3200m state champion Benjamin Montgomery, Blake Bullard, Zach Troutman, Andruw Villa, Matthew Montgomery, and many more runners with state-level accolades.
Last year's race was also the first time we got to see Caden Leonard and Benjamin Montgomery race head-to-head in the year they'd both go on to win their first state titles. Leonard won the race in a time of 15:06.30 while Montgomery finished second in a time of 15:22.60. Jude Alvarez would go on to complete the podium in 15:23.20 while Sam Golla finished fourth in 15:25.10. Last year likely set the baseline range for what we should expect to see the winner run this year, however, we could likely see a sub-15 minute time come away with the victory this year.
2024 Meet Overview and Expectations
While this year's meet doesn't appear to have quite the same level of talent on the team side, several of last year's participants return to test themselves again. The highlight of this year's cast is the return of defending state champions Southlake Carroll who look to defend their title from last year's meet. Last year's Nike South Invitational was the first time we got to see the Dragons run their full squad over a true 5000m course and it'll be the second time we see that this year.
Another great team we can expect to see this weekend is the team hosting the meet, The Woodlands. While the Highlanders had what some would describe as a down year last year, they're right back where they belong in 2024 as they recently were ranked fourth on my midseason team rankings. They've run well against some of the state's best this year and pack running has been critical to their success. We should get yet another taste of what this year's squad has to offer and it'll be interesting to see how The Woodlands fare against a team like Southlake Carroll.
The third key returner from last year's meet is the team who ended up finishing fifth at the state meet, College Park. The Cavaliers are still a bit of a mystery in 2024 as we've yet to see them run their full squad over any distance. However, if they were going to do that at any meet, it would be this one as they don't get much bigger than Nike South at this point in the season. Ideally, if they run their full squad they should be competing with The Woodlands and Camden Gibson will get an opportunity to push himself against Caden Leonard and some of the guys he'll likely be in contention with in Round Rock.
The two Katy Schools of Katy Tompkins and Katy will also compete this weekend. While neither of them will be fighting for the win, this matchup could be crucial in determining who comes away with the Region III crown in October. Both teams have looked even to start the year, although Tompkins probably has a slight edge at this point in the year. One interesting thing to note about this matchup is the contrast in how these two teams are made up. Katy relies more on two front runners who score big points while Tompkins runs a tight pack that scores close together. It's a classic matchup in cross-country and getting out into a good position while balancing stamina for what's a fast final mile will be the determining factor in which style ultimately prevails.
The last team that we'll likely see at the state meet is Waxahachie who has been regularly featured in the CCCAT top ten and has been right on the edge of my rankings. They've proven to have one of the better team scores in the state and have looked good on some fast courses to start the year. My main concerns have rested on the difficulty of the courses they run, as well as how they perform against top-level competition. That being said, they have a great opportunity to firmly assert themselves as one of the better teams in the state this weekend and they'll be eager to take advantage of that opportunity. They have plenty of experience running in fast races and that should serve them well.
On the individual side, we could see Caden Leonard race for Southlake Carroll this weekend as he raced here last year. The state's top individuals don't always run on the same schedule as their teams, but this meet feels like somewhere we should see him. In all likelihood, if he runs, he'll be the favorite to win the race. He ran 15:06.30 last year, so there's a good chance we could see him break the 15:00 barrier here which isn't the easiest thing to do in this race.
Last year's fourth-place finisher at the state meet Blake Bullard should also feature for Southlake Carroll this weekend. Bullard has had a great start to the 2024 season where we've seen him run closer to Leonard earlier in the year than compared to last year. He's always in great shape and reliable for the Dragons and we should see him perform well this year.
The Woodlands duo of Tyler Hedgepeth and Elton Martin will also feature here this year for the Highlanders. These two have been instrumental in their team's success this year and this weekend will provide yet another proving ground for The Woodlands to show just how good of a squad they have.
Ideally, we could also see Camden Gibson race for College Park this weekend. We haven't seen much from him this season, but Gibson is one of those guys that's good over any distance so it's always exciting to see him compete with the state's best.
Predictions
I'll keep the predictions brief this time. If I had to bet, I'd say that Caden Leonard should win this race and break the 15:00 barrier this time. He ran fast here last year and he's already proven to be in great shape so I think he's in a good spot to improve this year.
As for the team side, I think Southlake Carroll takes this one with a similar gap to last year. I think The Woodlands will take second as they've looked strong while College Park finishes a close third if they run their whole squad.
That's all for today, be sure to stay tuned for more coverage of this year's Nike South Invitational as it's going to be an instrumental race for the 6A season.