It's finally time for the best part of the year: regionals week. We finally get to see the state's best teams go head-to-head with something on the line. Unlike some previous years, this year has largely gone as predicted, as many top teams have lived up to the hype and impressed. However, this week is always tricky, as no spot is ever solidified until everyone crosses the line, and we often see teams step up during these meets.
While the results of these races can be hard to predict, it's something that we enjoy doing and have had good success with. Last year, we went 13/16 on state qualifiers in the 6A Boys division and we'll look to replicate that success again this year. As with every year, there's plenty of nuance when it comes to comparing teams and predicting things but we're going to give it our best shot. So, without further ado, let's dive into some predictions for the Region I & II championships.
2024 UIL Regional Coverage
Region I
1. Southlake Carroll
Ranking Southlake Carroll first in Region I has become somewhat of a formality these last few years as the Dragons have continued to produce outstanding squads. This rings true this year as Carroll returned their top two finishers from last year's state meet in the form of defending champion Caden Leonard and fourth-place finisher Blake Bullard. Add onto this the return of key supporting runners like Griffin Cords and Alex Severson, and this team looks set to cruise through the regional meet in Lubbock and fight for the state championship once again.
In terms of results, we haven't seen Carroll run their full squad often this year, but when they have, they've been impressive. Their first time running their full squad came at their home meet, the Southlake #1 XC Invite. The Dragons easily came away with the win, scoring just 47 points and beating out several talented schools. Their next time running their full squad came at the highly touted Woodbridge Cross Country Classic where they finished second amongst a field of the nation's best. They only finished behind Herriman, the No. 1 team in the nation, and fought hard from start to finish.
As expected, Southlake Carroll dominated their district meet and scored just 24 points for the win. This is a team clearly firing on all cylinders and there really isn't much else to say. This team knows how to win and they've done so at this meet for the last decade and that won't change this weekend.
2. El Paso Eastwood
Outside of Southlake Carroll, the battle for the three remaining qualifying spots is set to be brutal. Region I has earned the reputation of being extremely competitive and that will be on full display again this year. However, the team that I'm most confident in taking the second spot to Round Rock is El Paso Eastwood. They returned last year's fifth-place finisher at the state meet Aidan Torres who has been nothing short of phenomenal. Add onto that the emergence of some talented depth and some strong performances at big meets and El Paso Eastwood looks like one of the more reliable teams to bet on in Region I.
Given that they come out of El Paso, Eastwood's results can sometimes get swept under the rug. Despite this, they've been solid all year and have shown their championship pedigree on several occasions. The one that stands out the most is their sixth-place finish at Desert Twilight, one of the most stacked meets in the country. They finished that race with a team average of 15:44 and had a decent split considering Torres ran 14:47.40. Eastwood has proven they can run fast in huge races against highly competitive teams and that experience will serve them well this weekend.
Eastwood has become one of the more reliable programs out of Region I and that shouldn't change this weekend. I'm confident in their demonstrated ability to run fast and hang tough against the nation's best. They have replicated the championship environment several times this season and have performed well each time which is why they should go to Round Rock with a second-place finish this weekend.
3. Northwest Nelson
Northwest Nelson is a team that has run fast all year and has largely atoned for missing the state meet last year. They've looked strong on several occasions and have a talented roster that should elevate them to Round Rock. As expected, this team has been led by talented senior Matthias Peterson all year who has even dipped under the 15:00 mark on several occasions. On top of that, they have one of the best quartets of depth runners we've seen in the region this year, and this combination of qualities makes them a prime candidate to make it out of this difficult region.
In terms of results, we've seen Northwest Nelson race more than some of their counterparts. They had a great showing at the Southlake #1 XC Invite to start the year where they finished second behind Southlake Carroll and scored 86 points. Another strong performance came recently at their district meet where they finished only 10 points behind the Dragons in a tight race. Now, while there's been a lot of good for this team there's also been some bad. They finished sixth at the Nike South Invitational in a race you would've expected to see them second in and they also finished fourth at the Lovejoy XC Fall Festival when they should've been third at worst.
While this season has been a mixed bag for Northwest Nelson, I still expect them to perform well this weekend. Inconsistency has been a problem for them, but their performance at their district meet came at the perfect time and this team simply has too much talent to not make the state meet. I expect them to finish third in Lubbock but we could very well see them finish second if they have a good race.
4. Keller
Picking the fourth and final qualifying spot for these regions is the hardest thing I have to do all year and that rings especially true with Region I. That being said, when having to tackle this task my saving grace is head-to-head racing and the team that's set themselves apart through that metric is Keller. They've been in the thick of it all year with a tight squad that's been able to edge out victory against key regional competition weekly and for that reason, I think they're the best bet to go with when it comes to securing the final spot out of Region I.
When it comes to results, the primary race that stands out when looking at this team is their performance at the Jesuit XC Classic. This race saw the four contenders for this final spot come together and Keller was the team that came out on top. Not only were they faster than their competitors, but they ran significantly closer together which is the quality that's going to elevate them into this fourth spot. It's not often that we get to see teams go directly head-to-head for the fourth spot before regionals, but I think this result will go a long way toward determining the outcome of this championship.
This is easily the tightest battle out of all four regions, but I'm confident that Keller will be the team to come out on top. They've been a consistent team all year and have demonstrated themselves to be deserving of the fourth spot based on head-to-head racing against their competitors which I view to be the most valuable metric. This one will be close, but I'm confident that Keller will get it done and make it to Round Rock.
Other teams to watch: Coppell, McKinney Boyd, Prosper, Flower Mound, Lewisville Hebron
Region II
1. Bridgeland
Unlike Region I, the fight for the Region II championship is set to be tighter with more than one team having a legitimate shot at the win. That being said, Bridgeland feels like the clear favorite heading into this weekend as they've been a dominant force in every race they've run and have head-to-head victories over their closest competitors. The Bears are led by 3200m state champion Benjamin Montgomery who is also backed up by a great supporting cast who run extremely close together. Bridgeland has been a force and they look primed to defend their regional crown.
As far as results go, the Bears have been phenomenal as they've won each of their four meets easily despite the fact they're racing against the state's best. They won the Brenham Hillacious Invitational by 27 points over The Woodlands, the Texas A&M Invitational by 129 points over College Park, and they won the OSU Cowboy Jamboree by 61 points. This team has only run difficult courses against the best competition and that's going to serve them extremely well this weekend. They've been preparing for this stage all year and they look primed to repeat.
There isn't much more to say about Bridgeland other than they've been great. I've been saying all season that time doesn't tell the full story with this team and we'll see that on display this weekend. I'm expecting it to be a competitive one, but I think Bridgeland will get it done and win Region II for the second year in a row.
2. The Woodlands
The teams ranked second and third on this list are largely interchangeable, but I'm choosing to roll with The Woodlands for the second spot. While they're undoubtedly neck and neck with their crosstown rivals, The Woodlands have demonstrated their caliber more frequently than College Park this year and that makes me more confident in them heading into the weekend. They're made up of a strong mix of experience and youth and have performed well at several big meets this year and those two factors should help the historic Highlanders make it back to Round Rock in the second spot.
In terms of results, The Woodlands have taken a similar approach to Bridgeland in that they've actively sought out tough competition this year. Despite the difficulty that comes along with this, they've performed extremely well and asserted themselves as one of the state's best. The highlight of their season came at the Lovejoy XC Fall Festival where they finished second amongst some of the state's best teams. They also had strong showings at the Nike South Invitational and the Brenham Hillacious Invitational with a pair of second places against some of the state's best which puts them in a great position this weekend.
As mentioned, the second and third spots on this list are interchangeable, but I feel good about The Woodlands. They seem to have gotten their mojo back this year and I've been impressed with how they've performed against some of the state's best. They've made a habit of finishing second at big meets and I think it's likely that will continue this weekend as they head back to Round Rock yet again.
3. College Park
College Park came third on this list after having an outstanding 2023 season that saw them finish fifth at the state meet. However, they haven't raced much this season which doesn't give me much to go off when looking at their results and comparing it to the other teams they've up against. That being said, this team hasn't changed much from last year's team and they've proven to be a very successful group when their full squad races. College Park is led by star junior Camden Gibson who hasn't raced much this year, but I still expect him to be fresh and in good form this weekend.
As mentioned, College Park doesn't have much in the way of interpretable results as they've only run their full squad once at the UIL 6A-District 13 meet where they narrowly edged out The Woodlands by five points. This performance was solid, but I can't justify putting them second at the moment due to how little they've raced as a full squad. Experience plays a big part in championship success and I really would've liked to see them race more than they have since they're about to head into the most important part of the season.
Two races or ten, College Park has still been a great team this year and I expect to see them in the fight for victory this weekend. They've proven their pedigree from their results at the state meet last year and if that same team shows up then things are going to get interesting. For now, they're third, but this team could easily finish second or potentially even win this weekend.
4. Waxahachie
The fourth and final qualifying spot should be wrapped up by Waxahachie this weekend. Waxahachie is a team that it feels like has been knocking on the door of the state meet for two years now, but I think they'll finally get it done this weekend. Graham Scott and Cooper Grady have been outstanding in the way they've led this team over the last year and their growth as a program has become evident as this season has gone on. While no spot is ever comfortably secured at regionals, as long as this team has a good race then they should be fine and make their way to Round Rock.
Waxahachie is a team that doesn't run from competition, as evidenced by the slew of competitive meets on their schedule. They opened up the season at the Southlake #1 XC Invite where they finished sixth amongst some of the state's best. They also competed at the Nike South Invitational where they finished sixth again in another great field. While their results may not jump off the page as a state title contender, they've had quality performances against great teams and that's all you can ask for.
A team should never be comfortable heading into regionals, but I'm confident in this Waxahachie squad. The main thing I worry about with them is that they don't run difficult courses throughout the season which could catch them out in a race like this, but they'll likely be fine as they aren't facing the hardest competition. It'll be a battle, but I think Waxahachie get over the hump and head to Round Rock this time.
Other teams to watch: Klein Oak, Wylie, Klein, Tomball Memorial