The wait is finally over and we've made it to the UIL State Championship where the state's best teams come together to fight for a championship. Despite the continued dominance of Southlake Carroll over the last half-decade, this season was projected to be extremely tight thanks to the combination of graduating seniors and the emergence of young talent. Fortunately for us, that projection proved to be accurate as we've seen a season filled with exceptional racing and more questions than answers as to who will come out on top.
The defending champions have looked strong despite the loss of some key contributors. Their defending individual state champion Caden Leonard has continued his unbeaten run on the grass in Texas which dates back to September of last year. They're solid at the front as expected, but can their depth match up against their rivals?
Austin Vandegrift has made a habit of finishing second at the state meet, often missing out by just a few points. However, this season has looked promising with a lethal duo at the front backed by a reliable pack of talented guys. Can Vandegrift finally get over the hump this year? Or will they take home silver yet again?
Outside of the top two, several teams have looked like real contenders for the podium. Bridgeland has emerged as the class of Region II while College Park and The Woodlands follow closely behind. El Paso Eastwood and Northwest Nelson also had solid years and at times looked like legitimate podium contenders.
Anything can happen at the state meet, so let's try our best to predict this year's podium finishers and see how the rest of the field will shape out in Round Rock.
Photo Credit: Christine Langford/MileSplit
1. Austin Vandegrift
This time last year, picking the UIL state champion for the 6A boys was the easiest choice I had to make. Southlake Carroll was dominant the entire year, and they'd made a habit of snuffing out any title challenge before it got started. However, this year things have been different, and that ultimately starts and ends with Austin Vandegrift. Yes, picking against a team that's won every state championship since 2019 is risky and may not be the common pick of other respected outlets like CCCAT. That being said when you look at not only the season Vandegrift has had but the way their lineup distributes itself in races, they're going to be a really tough team to beat.
The best way to demonstrate this idea is by going meet by meet and seeing how Vandegrift is placed. They opened their season at the Vista Ridge Cross Country Invitational where they scored 18 points and had a team average in the 15:40s. These numbers are impressive, but the real value comes from the distribution of their runners in the field. Vandegrift placed 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 8th with a 54-second split. They left no breathing room for their competition and this quickly became a trend throughout the year.
Another great and more competitive example of this trend was the Marcus Coach T Invitational. Although the course isn't particularly tough, it's one of the more stacked meets on the team side. Vandegrift took home the team title with 43 points and a 15:09 team average, along with a 43-second split. Again, very impressive numbers, but finishing 2nd, 4th, 10th, 11th, and 17th in a field of 215 makes the result even more impressive.
While the distribution of the entire team is important to Vandegrift's title hopes, the thing that's going to win them the state title is the gap between their 1st and 2nd runners. Hudson Haley and Kai McCullough have been brilliant for this team throughout the 2024 season. They've regularly placed in the top four of every meet and are always neck and neck at the front to maximize Vandegrift's points haul.
Over five races this year, the pair have been separated by 9.5 seconds on average and haven't finished below fourth in those appearances. Compare this with the gaps between the other two podium teams Southlake Carroll (30 seconds in 4 appearances) and Bridgeland (28 seconds in 4 appearances) and you have a massive advantage for Vandegrift.
Austin Vandegrift has done everything you'd want out of a state championship-winning team in 2024. They've dominated each of their race appearances with poise and precision, and they've rarely shown any weaknesses. On top of this, the statistics favor them as they're a team that runs equally as fast if not faster than their rivals, while also running significantly closer together further up in the field. It's been a long time since another team has had a shot at the state title, but I'm backing Austin Vandegrift to come out as your 2024 state champion.
Photo Credit: Jan Smits/MileSplit
2. Southlake Carroll
Just because Southlake Carroll isn't predicted to be state champions this weekend, doesn't mean they aren't in serious contention. Dynasties don't become dynasties by failing to take advantage of every opportunity and capitalizing in the big moments and Southlake Carroll epitomizes that. While this year's team arguably isn't as strong as last year's, Southlake Carroll has a way of making sure they get the most out of their guys on the biggest days and we saw that last year with Blake Bullard who finished tenth at the regional meet but came fourth at the state meet.
The main thing that keeps Carroll out of the number one spot is their lack of a consistently reliable wingman on Caden Leonard's shoulder throughout the season. However, if there was a team that throws numbers out of the window in Round Rock and finds a way to win it'd be this one. That being said, when we look at the numbers this team is still incredible. They're undefeated in the state of Texas yet again and have produced an incredible 14:59.58 team average based on their district meet results. Additionally, Caden Leonard has continued to show why he's one of the best runners in the country as he continued his in-state undefeated streak with several outstanding performances including a new personal best of 14:33.50.
We know that Caden Leonard will deliver this weekend, but Southlake Carroll's fate is going to be determined by how well their depth runs and how close they can get to Leonard. As mentioned, Blake Bullard was their second runner at last year's state meet and I'd expect that to be true this year as well. Bullard has had another solid season with three top-ten finishes and a new personal best of 15:02.70 from the Southlake #1 XC Invite. While he hasn't had as good of a season as Kai McCullough, he's a proven performer in Round Rock as mentioned above, and brings a gritty triathlete mentality to his racing that allows him to dig deep for those extra positions when it counts. While I don't know if another fourth place is on the cards for him, I certainly am not counting him out.
Another guy that Southlake Carroll is going to have to get the best version of is Griffin Cords. Cords was a depth guy on last year's team but has stepped up to be a key points scorer on this year's squad. At his best, he's run 15:01.10 this season and has averaged around 15:20 in his four performances over 5000m. He finished sixth at the UIL 1A-6A Region 1 Championship which is the kind of performance the team is going to need from him this weekend. If he can stick with Bullard and be as close to Leonard as possible, he gives Southlake Carroll a great chance at another title.
The final two scorers on this team are likely going to be what determines the outcome of this state championship for the Dragons. Alex Severson is another guy from last year's state-title team who's stepped into a bigger role this year, while Kai Gutierrez was largely a newcomer for this year's squad. At their best, they've run 15:08.40 and 15:12.20 respectively, and will likely have to run within ten seconds of those times for Carroll to come away with the state title.
Southlake Carroll is a team and a program built on performing under the brightest lights, and that's what they'll have to do if they want to win the state title this weekend. Caden Leonard is going to have to win the race which I believe he'll do, but the Dragons will likely need at least another runner in the top ten and another one to two inside the top fifteen. If they can get five within the top 20-25 runners, they'll win the state title. However, if they can't stick at the front close to one another it may be a tougher challenge.
Photo Credit: Olivia Vang/MileSplit
3. Bridgeland
While there were several teams in contention for the final spot on the podium, the team that's consistently been in this spot throughout the year is Bridgeland. Unlike the two programs above them, Bridgeland is an up-and-coming outfit that Kevin Waters has quickly built into one of the state's premier programs. They've made three previous trips to the state meet as a team, however, thanks to a combination of a state champion and a diligently developed young core, the Bears are primed to take home their first trophy this weekend in Round Rock. They've been quietly dominant all season and have a squad that's ready and willing to capitalize on any mistakes from the top two. While some may not see Bridgeland as the same level as Vandegrift or Southlake Carroll, rest assured they still have a chance at taking home the title this weekend.
One thing these three teams all have in common is an elite frontrunner and Bridgeland has there's in the form of Benjamin Montgomery. Montgomery's accolades are well known, he's a state champion on the track and a podium finisher from last year's state meet who's always in contention for the win no matter who the competition is. He's been elite since the moment he entered high school and has had one of the most impressive seasons we've seen in recent memory. He's won each of his four outings this year by at least 9 seconds with many of them being by 20 seconds or more. Additionally, he's broken the course record of each respective course, as if his season couldn't get any more impressive.
Bridgeland was a likely podium contender heading into this season based on their returners, however, the addition of Griffen Saacke has taken this team from a podium hopeful to a state title contender. Saacke qualified for the state 3200m as a sophomore in the spring and has played the exact role the Bears needed him to. He's finished second to Montgomery in three of their four appearances together and recently set a huge personal best at the UIL 2 & UIL 1A Region 3 XC Championship where he ran 15:16.57 and finished second to his teammate. Saacke will undoubtedly play a key role in determining how high Bridgeland can finish this weekend. He finished 25th at last year's state meet, and if he can get inside the top fifteen, he gives the Bears a legitimate shot at sneaking past one or both of the teams above them.
Unlike the two teams projected ahead of them, Bridgeland 3rd-5th runners essentially function as one as they're separated by just 1.5 seconds. Kyle Pawlak has generally been the fastest of this group with a personal best of 15:45.73 that came at regionals while Tyler Weston and Maddox McCallister ran 15:46.03 and 15:47.26 respectively in the same race. Bridgeland's current 6th runner Layton Carlisle isn't far behind this group either as he holds a current personal best of 15:56.41 which also came at regionals.
This group is the tightest one in the field, but the key for them will be how far up the field they can get, particularly early in the race. Running close together is vital, but only for a team like Bridgeland if they're where they need to be in the field. The key for the Bears will be to not get bogged down at the start and to put themselves in a good position through the mile mark. They've shown how they gradually move up through the field as the race goes on, so getting a good start is vital for them if they want to end up near the top thirty instead of the top sixty.
While Bridgeland has made it to Round Rock in the past, they've rounded into an elite team this year with a great shot at the podium and a legitimate chance at the state title. Benjamin Montgomery will be in contention for the win, but the key for this team will be how close Griffen Saacke can get to him, and how close the rest of the pack is behind. If they have their perfect race, I don't see why they can't be a sure contender for the podium and a threat for the state title.
Remaining Predictions:
4. El Paso Eastwood 5. The Woodlands 6. College Park
7. Northwest Nelson 8. Katy 9. Flower Mound
10. Katy Tompkins 11. Waxahachie 12. San Antonio Johnson
13. Harlingen 14. Round Rock 15. Clear Creek
16. Summer Creek