Next Monday and Tuesday, UIL Regional Championships take center stage as teams and individuals push their fitness and their luck in pursuit of berths to the 2025 state meet.
Here, we break down the individual races in every girls' UIL 5A region, share our insights, and predict the champions.
Region 1-5A
For the individual favorite in Region I-5A, we like Molly Garrison (Aledo) as she checks every box you want in a favorite: current form, range, course profile fit, and big-race receipts. A year ago, she was runner-up at region (18:22) and then sixth at state (18:16), and she's clearly leveled up as a senior.
Her 2025 slate blends speed-centric courses with strength tests, and she's been excellent on both, 17:45 at Southlake (4th) and 18:18 at Marcus (8th), proving she can run with the state's fastest through 3K and still close, while 18:52 at Cowboy Jamboree (4th) shows she doesn't flinch when terrain and rhythm get choppy. She just won District 5 (18:37), which keeps the momentum arrow pointing up heading into Lubbock.
Underpinning that consistency is real track range and a larger aerobic base. Last spring, she turned in 4:51/10:54 for the 1600/3200 and a 2:18 800, then went to state and placed 3rd (1600) and 6th (3200). That combination-sub-4:52 speed plus sub-11:00 endurance translates directly to Mae Simmons' rolling profile, where Region I is often won by athletes who can change gears late without sacrificing efficiency on the hills. Layer in her triathlon background (big engine, economy, durability), and you get an athlete who can handle the honest early pace that Lubbock usually demands and still have a controlled last 1,000 meters.
Her resume also shows the championship savvy you want when the wind, elevation, and pressure start stacking up. In back-to-back September weekends, she went 18:18 at Nike South (14th) and 18:52 at Cowboy Jamboree (4th), very different courses, very little variance. That kind of "floor" matters at regions, where the first mile often strings the field and the race becomes about who bleeds the least time on the climbs and turns. Garrison's pattern this fall-stay in the lead group through 3K, then squeeze the middle of the last mile-fits how Region I tends to be won.
That doesn't mean it's a walkover. Ashlyn McMillan (EL Paso Hanks) has a legitimate puncher's chance, headlined by a 17:34 win at the El Paso High Invite and top-two finishes at McNeil (19:15) and Lubbock ISD (19:30). If the race goes out hot and stays honest, McMillan's front-running chops could force a two-woman breakaway. Natali Velasquez (Colleyville Heritage) brings a 17:51 season best and the kind of turnover that punishes a timid middle mile, while Garrison's teammate Mykel Murry (18:44 season best) adds Aledo's pack presence up front-useful if the race becomes tactical and someone needs to keep the tempo honest.
Add it up, and the call is Garrison by a small but confident margin. She owns the region's best blend of proven strength on Lubbock-style courses, top-end speed to win a fast finish, and a season arc trending upward at exactly the right time. If she executes the familiar script of a patient first mile, pressure the rollers, decisive move before the final descent, she's the one everyone else will be keying off in the last 800 meters.
Region 2-5A
Region 3-5A
If there's a center of gravity in Region III-5A, it's Eva Cragnolino. The Austin LASA standout isn't just consistent, she's versatile in a way that travels to any course and any race script. Her fall arc checks every championship box: early-season sharpness (18:46 at AISD/Bowie), a controlled, high-quality tune-up (18:03 at Westlake), and then the kind of composure you only see from proven closers. She's the defending regional champion (18:38 last year) and a top-10 finisher at state, and her track range-4:48 1600m and 10:30 3200m means she can survive an honest tempo and still change gears when it matters. Just as importantly, she's shown she can win when everyone is dialed in and the splits get real.
Her signature statement this season came at Hoka McNeil, the premier regular-season checkpoint in Texas. With Rowen Skinner (College Station A&M Consolidated forcing an honest rhythm and Morgan Nelsen (Hendrickson) in the mix, Cragnolino didn't just hang; she won it, clocking 18:03 and out-dueling both marquee rivals head-to-head. That result matters more than a line of PRs: it proves she can read the race, absorb a mid-race squeeze, and still own the last kilometer against the very athletes she'll see again in Round Rock. Since McNeil, she's added a district title (18:58) to check the "healthy and trending" box. Skinner's sub-18 chops and Nelsen's 17:44 ceiling make this a legitimate showdown, but Cragnolino enters Region III with the cleanest championship resume and the best big-race proof, and until someone flips the McNeil result, she's our favorite to break the tape.
Skinner owns the fastest mark in the field and an unmatched string of sub-18s (17:42, 17:52, 17:55, and 17:55). Nelson's 17:44 is a factor, but she also has a head-to-head win over Cragnolino. Don't overlook Haylee Hughes (Lake Creek) who's dipped under 18 (17:54) and has consistently been sharp against big fields.
How we think it plays out: Skinner drives an honest tempo, Nelson keeps contact, and Hughes marks the chase. Battle-tested Cragnolino and comfortable in big-race traffic will ride the moves, then lean on her state-class 1600/3200 speed to separate late.
Region 4-5A
Region IV-5A's individual race looks like Aubrey Pozzi's moment. The Smithson Valley sophomore has threaded a near-perfect season, blending consistency with closing speed. She opened with a controlled win at Canyon (18:46) and then leveled up against elite company-18:03 for runner-up at Hays CISD and 18:15 for 11th at Nike South-before stamping her authority at district with a wire-to-wire 17:58.79. Toss in a sharp three-mile tune-up win (17:15.99 at Byron Nelson Last Minute), and Pozzi's profile checks all the championship boxes: she's race-sharp, tested in fast packs, and, most importantly, proven in a head-to-head with the very contenders she'll see again.
The most immediate threat may come from her own teammate, Lilly Koenig, who has the tools to turn Regionals into a two-woman Smithson Valley show. Koenig's track breakout last spring (and smart, upward-trending fall) suggests her ceiling is rising at the right time; if the early pace is honest and the rhythm stays smooth through 3K, Koenig's track-speed finish keeps her squarely in the gold-medal conversation. Savanah Moya (New Braunfels) enters with the region's rawest headline-17:43.80 season best-and, on paper, that makes her the fastest runner in the field. A third-place at the District 26-5A meet behind Pozzi and Koenig resets the narrative, but it doesn't erase Moya's range or her ability to re-center with ten days to adjust. Expect her to shadow the Smithson Valley duo early and test the elastic after two miles. Finally, Genesis Dolores Ramirez (La Joya Palmview) brings a legitimate upset card-her 18:17.50 season best puts her within striking distance if the leaders hesitate, and her strength profile suits a grindy mid-race surge.
Tactically, Pozzi's best path is the one she's used all fall: establish control by 1K, keep the cadence honest through the middle mile, and trust that sub-18 rhythm she flashed at district. If the tempo softens, Koenig's kick becomes a problem. If it goes out hot, Moya's proven PR fitness keeps her alive deep into the last kilometer. Ramirez is the wildcard who benefits from any back-and-forth. Still, given form, head-to-head receipts, and the way she's closed this month, Pozzi is our pick to break the tape, with Koenig, Moya, and Ramirez scrapping for the podium behind her.