The 2024 race had its fair share of drama. All eyes were on Leachman and how that race would play out. With several state champions from multiple states, it was clear the race would be special, and individual qualifiers and teams would be put to the test. The final team qualifying position was decided by one point.

This year's race should not only be similar, it could be even closer than last season's race.

III. INDIVIDUAL GIRLS PREVIEW - THE FRONT-RUNNER PACK

Across Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Mississippi, one trend has dominated:

The South region has exploded with 16:30-17:40 talent.

Never before have we seen:

• multiple low-16 athletes in the same cycle

• Arkansas producing multiple sub-17 girls

• Oklahoma posting its fastest front pack since 2016

• Louisiana and Mississippi both generating NXN-qualifier-caliber runners

Let's break it down state by state.

TEXAS - The National Center of Gravity

Texas is responsible for the majority of sub-17 performances in the entire region:

Top Texas Individuals (Season Bests)

• 16:30 - Macy Wingard (Denton Braswell)

• 16:34 - Laney Barnes (Cypress Woods)

• 16:41 - Elin Latta (South Texas Heat)

• 16:42 - Maya Easterwood (Coppell)

• 16:44 - Addyson Bristow (Canyon)

• 16:47 - Elena Sather (Northwest Nelson)

• 17:04 - Rowan Saacke (Bridgeland)

• 17:07 - Adeline Bennett (Flower Mound)

...and Texas keeps going. It's absurd how many girls in this region are running fast right now.

The Texans Who Can Win the Whole Thing

1. Elin Latta - South Texas Heat - 16:41 | Nike South Champion (17:17)

Latta is a pro at measured aggressiveness and is one of the most tactically sound runners in the field. Her Watts win at the Nike South Invite was textbook.

2. Adeline Bennett - Flower Mound - 17:07 SB | 17:29 at Watts

Don't let the time fool you. Bennett is the most competitive racers in the region. Her stride is made for speeds over the final K. 

3. Macy Wingard - Denton Braswell - 16:30 SB

The fastest season-best in the field. Wingard's ceiling is an NXN individual top-15 level. The only question is whether she prefers to take the reins again like she did in Round Rock.

4. Laney Barnes - Cypress Woods - 16:34 SB

The most intriguing elite runner in Texas and potentially the most dangerous late-mover at Watts. She closed strong to beat Latta at Texas A&M on this course.

5. Maya Easterwood - Coppell - 16:42 SB

Ultra-consistent. Never runs a bad race. NXR South rewards that.

ARKANSAS - The Renaissance Continues

Arkansas girls are rewriting their state's NXR South standards.

Top Arkansas Individuals

• 16:47 - Lilly Beshears (Rogers)

• 16:58 - Gabbie Bishop (Providence)

• 17:17 - Maggie Bishop (Providence)

• 17:33 - Hattie Ray Beshears (Har-Ber)

• 17:35 - Flannery O'Daniel (Bentonville)

Beshears should be the favorite. She won Southlake in 16:47, on Texas soil against a field that included Wingard, Williams, Orr, Garrison, and both Scudders. Only the AR state meet on her resume is the second race of her season; Is she healthy and sharp?

Beshears is absolutely in the mix to win NXR South outright, again.

OKLAHOMA - The Best OK Trio in Years

Oklahoma enters with three girls capable of finishing inside the top 15.

Top Oklahoma Individuals

• 16:44 - Paetyn Price (Ponca City)

• 17:06 - Ava Cornelius (Owasso)

• 18:01 - Charlotte Tangren (Jenks)

Price's 16:44 is outrageous. Cornelius is the reigning 6A state champ. Tangren is a freshman with no ceiling yet.

Oklahoma isn't just participating - they can disrupt the Texas/Arkansas front pack.

LOUISIANA - A Surge of Young Talent

Louisiana does not produce volume. It produces spikes.

Top Louisiana Individuals

• 17:53 - Stella Junius (Mt. Carmel)

• 18:01 - Lucy Cramer (Parkview Baptist)

• 18:06 - Molly Cramer (Parkview)

• 18:07 - Emma Aldana-Huelga (Willow School)

Stella Junius is the one to watch. She finished 7th at FSU Invite in 17:53 - a mark that places her among legitimate NXR qualifiers.

MISSISSIPPI - Small Numbers, Big Threats

Mississippi brings two athletes who can absolutely finish top 20:

Top Mississippi Individuals

• 17:57 - Alex Lee (Madison Central)

• 18:21 - Lilly Overby (Simpson Academy)

IV. TEAM RACE - THE MOST CHAOTIC AND STACKED FIELD IN YEARS

Let's be clear: This is the deepest girls' team field NXR South in some time.

We legitimately have:

• 4 Texas teams who could podium at NXN

• 2 Arkansas teams that could shock the region

• 2 Oklahoma teams trending upward

• A private school powerhouse (South Texas Heat)

• 5A Texas teams that can beat 6A teams on the right day (Aledo, Lovejoy, Smithson Valley)

Let's break them down tier by tier.

TIER 1 - THE TITLE CONTENDERS

Flower Mound

Nike South Champions | 18:25 avg | 1:03 split at Watts

Bennett, Cluley, and Primer give them a lethal 1-2-3.

Northwest Nelson

17:44 team average - best in Texas. This is the most balanced top five in the region, led by Elena Sather.

Bridgeland

UIL 6A State Champions - Smith, Saacke, and Rawls are another lethal 1-2-3.

Rogers (Arkansas)

They're the Arkansas champions and have a legitimate low-stick in Lilly Beshears.

Carroll

Perpetually dangerous. Gutierrez, Bergman, Perez, and balance from 4-5.

TIER 2 - DARK HORSES WITH REAL UPSET POTENTIAL

Bentonville (Arkansas)

Powerful pack. If they close their gap by 10 seconds, they can finish top three.

The Woodlands

Historic program trending up late in the season.

Lucas Lovejoy

Recaptured the 5A state title, which wasn't an easy thing to do. 

Smithson Valley

5A program with 6A-level firepower.

Aledo

Experienced, veteran, consistent.

INDIVIDUAL GIRLS RACE SCENARIO

Who takes it out?

Wingard and Latta will absolutely be the ones who maintain control through the first mile. Beshears and Barnes, Bishop, and Eaterwood should match.

Who moves first?

Beshears has the boldest instinct. If she surges at 3K like she did at Southlake, the field compresses.

Who closes best?

Bennett. 

Who survives the 800m stretch?

Wingard, Beshears, Latta, Bennett, Bristow, Easterwood, Price, Cramer, and Bishop.

GIRLS TEAM PREDICTION (TOP 5)

1. Flower Mound - Championship DNA + November peak 2. Bridgeland - Best pack integrity in the field 3. Rogers (AR) If healthy, this team can win it all. 4. Northwest Nelson - Safe floor, huge upside  4. Katy - A fairly young team could be ready to break through at the next level.