Earlier this week we made predictions for the Region I & II championships that will take place this weekend in Lubbock and Dallas respectively. Now it's time to round out our predicted field for the state meet with the remaining eight teams from Regions III & IV. While the regions we covered yesterday have garnered a reputation for being more competitive than the two we'll cover today, that doesn't necessarily ring true this year.
This year has the potential to give us our first state champion out of Region IV in a decade with Austin Vandegrift looking like a legitimate title threat to Southlake Carroll. As for the rest of the field, it will be much tighter and none of these spots are set in stone heading into the weekend. So, let's not waste more time and dive into our predictions for the Region III & IV championships.
Region III
1. Katy
One could've predicted in the preseason that Region III would be a battle of the Katy schools and that's exactly what it's been. However, determining which school would be at the top of the pile was a more difficult task. I said in August that Katy looked like a team that could contend at the state meet and be the best out of Region III and that's exactly where they stand today. Thanks to the great season we've seen from junior star Ryder Darcey along with the talented Joshua Perez, Katy looks like the favorite to take home the Region III crown in Huntsville this weekend.
As far as results go, Katy is another team that hasn't been afraid to seek out tough competition. They took home second place against a solid field at the SA Patriots Invitational to start the year and backed that up with a win at the Strake Jesuit Invitational. They faced their toughest challenge at the Nike South Invitational where they finished a respectable third behind Southlake Carroll and The Woodlands. Most recently, Katy won their district meet over their rivals Tompkins and Seven Lakes in a tight race where Ryder Darcey ran away from the field in 15:00.26. Overall, the Tigers have carried the momentum over from their strong 2023 season and have returned yet another squad capable of fighting in Round Rock.
While Region III may be the region with the least depth out of the four, the fight for the win is going to be the closest. That being said, I'm confident in Katy's ability to get it done when it counts in Huntsville. They've been competitive against their rivals and the state's best throughout the season and I don't see why that will change now. They seem fit and ready to continue their newfound success near the top of the sport.
2. Katy Tompkins
Unlike the regions we covered yesterday, Region III will easily be the tightest battle for the win that we see this weekend. Not only are these teams rivals, but they've raced against each other multiple times this season. Although they've had several great results, the Falcons came up short in their head-to-head races against Katy. Katy Tompkins was one of those teams that was hard to get a read on coming into 2024 as they lost a load of talent and brought in a new head coach. This level of change would destabilize a lot of teams, but Katy Tompkins has coped with the change exceptionally well.
In terms of results, Tompkins kept the trend of chasing after competition this year despite the change they encountered. They competed at several high-profile meets including the Brenham Hillacious Invitational where they finished third and the Nike South Invitational where they finished fifth behind a host of ranked schools. The highlight of their season arguably came at the McNeil Invite where they finished second behind state title contender Austin Vandegrift. While their results haven't jumped off the page like they did last year, Tompkins has still had a solid year and looks primed for another state meet appearance.
Things don't always go according to plan and Tompkins knows that well after they transition from last season. However, they've managed to put together a solid-state caliber team this year and should make it to Round Rock easily. Additionally, it wouldn't surprise me if they potentially win this race as they've been close with Katy all year but still need to get over the hump that is the Tigers.
3. Summer Creek
Summer Creek marks the first and only non-Katy-based school to appear on this list. Renowned for its elite success on the track that produced multiple state championships, Summer Creek has slowly but surely evolved its distance program into an outfit capable of making it to the state meet. They've found great success against their Region III competition in 2024 off the back of the dynamic duo that is Da'Juan Allison and Ja'Juan Allison who have been instrumental in their success. While they may not run super close together, Summer Creek has proven to be quick over several courses this year which puts them in prime position to make it to Round Rock.
When looking at their results, Summer Creek has had a lot of head-to-head racing against their Region III competitors. They finished a comfortable second at the Seven Lakes Invitational and weren't too far off Katy Tompkins. They had a strong showing at the Region III Preview where they took home the victory by a narrow two-point margin which they then followed up by winning the 6A race at the McNeil Invitational. While I wouldn't say they've faced as stiff of competition as Katy or Katy Tompkins, the Bulldogs have shown that they can put themselves in the position to win when the opportunity is there.
While I'm not sure that opportunity will be there this weekend, they still have a solid team who more likely than not will make an appearance in Round Rock. They have a strong 1-2 punch at the front that allows them to score big points backed up by decent depth which matches up well against their competitors. Summer Creek has had a lot of success on the track and 2024 feels like the year their distance squad takes their first step towards replicating that success.
4. Katy Seven Lakes
The battle for the final spot out of Region III came down to just two teams, however, I'm choosing to ride with Katy Seven Lakes to make the trip back to Round Rock. The Spartans lost Matthew Montgomery who won this race last year, but have still managed to maintain their success and have performed well. Samuel Garcia Camejo has been solid after taking up the role as the team's top runner and the rest of the team has followed suit which has allowed them to have a consistently solid squad. While I think their potential at the state meet may be limited, I think they're a reliable squad that should do enough to make it back to Round Rock yet again.
In terms of results, Seven Lakes hasn't raced a lot when compared to the other teams on this list. But, they're been up against tough competition in their few outings which gives them a leg up heading into this weekend. They finished third behind the two teams directly above them at their home meet and finished seventh at the Lovejoy XC Fall Festival behind several teams that we'll surely see at the state meet. Most recently, Seven Lakes came third at their district meet behind Katy and Katy Tompkins. While their results may not be outstanding, it's important to note the caliber of teams they're facing. Seven Lakes have really only been behind the top-two teams in their region which is an encouraging sign for them this weekend.
While the fourth spot is never secured, Seven Lakes should come into this weekend fresh and prepared for the stiff competition ahead of them. I think it may be close for the final spot, but they have championship experience which should help them come out on top here.
Other teams to watch: Houston Strake Jesuit, Kingwood, Stratford, Cinco Ranch, Pasadena Dobie
Region IV
1. Austin Vandegrift
Region IV returns to the theme of races where it feels as though the winner has already been crowned. Everyone knew Austin Vandegrift would be in the fight at the top when the season started. However, they've looked to be the slight favorite for the state championship since September thanks to the continued performances of Hudson Haley and the emergence of junior star Kai McCullough. Vandegrift has been nothing short of phenomenal this year as they've dominated high-level competition across various situations. Nothing is set in stone yet, but this team looks to be a real contender for the state championship.
In terms of results, Vandegrift has moved around a lot this year as they've actively sought out elite competition across a variety of courses. They started their season at the Vista Ridge Cross Country Invitational where they finished 1, 2, 3, and won the team title with just 18 points. Next, they traveled to the stacked Marcus Coach T Invitational where Hudson Haley finished second and the team won the meet with just 43 points. They then took to the state meet course for the McNeil Invitational in what was yet another dominant victory with 41 points scored. Most recently, Vandegrift won their district meet with 16 points, and their top four finishers finished 1-4. So far this season, Vandegrift hasn't let another team have a sniff of a win as they've truly been a dominant outfit.
While Vandegrift has been just short of that state title hump for a few years now, this year feels different. They've been dominant in every outing and they appear to be firing on all cylinders at the right time. It will be tight as always in Round Rock, but this team feels like a serious contender to take home gold when it's all said and done.
2. Round Rock
In keeping with what's been the status quo for Region IV in recent years, Round Rock looks to be a solid bet to take the second qualifying spot yet again. Although this team lost a significant amount of contribution in the form of graduating seniors, they've had several key young pieces step up and keep this team where it belongs. Sophomore Andrew Esparza has been phenomenal as the team's head guy, running a personal best of 15:18.30 and giving this team a top guy to rally around. Round Rock has been solid as always, and 2024 looks to be another year we should see them take on their home course at the state meet.
In terms of results, Round Rock has done what it always does by seeking out tough competition around the state. They've largely shadowed Vandegrift's schedule as they finished second at the Vista Ridge Cross Country Invitational to open up their season. They also finished second at the Marcus Coach T Invitational along with a fourth place finish at the McNeil Invite. Their only win of the season came at the Cedar Park XC Invitational where they scored 24 points in their only meet without Austin Vandegrift. While finishing second repeatedly may seem frustrating, they're routinely up against the best team in the state which is a great consolation when they're also your only competition in the region.
2024 has been another solid season for Round Rock as they've once again put themselves in a position to compete at the state meet. While I'm not sure what their peak is this year, I think they're a team to keep your eye on over the next few years as they have a young core that's been super impressive this year. Round Rock has a lot of potential and a bright future ahead, and they'll add another state appearance to their resume this weekend.
3. San Antonio Johnson
While the first two spots in Region IV are about as secure as they come, the same can't be said for the final spots as several teams could conceivably make it to Round Rock. That being said, San Antonio Johnson is a team that has quietly put together a good season against their fellow regional foes. They have big meet experience and are a program that's been in this situation before which should serve them well this weekend. Johnson has shown an ability to run incredibly close together which is something some of their fellow competitors can't say. They have the quality and the squad necessary to return to the state meet and I think that's what they'll do this weekend.
With results, San Antonio Johnson hasn't been at as many big meets as some of the other teams on this list but they've still managed to gain plenty of experience. Their two biggest meets of the season came at the McNeil Invitational where they finished eighth and the Nike South Invitational where they finished eighth again. Their most recent meet was arguably their most important as they were able to beat out San Antonio Reagan for the win at their district meet. While San Antonio Johnson may not boast a high-end individual talent, they have a tight-knit group of guys that have produced solid results this year. They can score big points in the upper midfield where it matters and that's what will elevate them this weekend.
As mentioned above, picking the final two spots in Region IV is never easy, however, I'm betting on San Antonio Johnson to come out with third place this weekend. They've put together a good season and have showcased all of the qualities you'd hope to see from a state-caliber team and that's what's going to help them get back to Round Rock this weekend.
4. San Antonio Reagan
Region IV tends to be unpredictable as it feels like each year a team comes out of nowhere to take the final spot and upset the perceived order. However, the team I'm most confident can take the final spot is San Antonio Reagan who also appeared at last year's state meet. Gavin Chapa has been the catalyst for this team's success this year as he's truly one of if not the most well-rounded runners in the entire state. He's always in contention to win any race and that also allows him to score big points for the team, especially in a race like the one this weekend. While it'll be tight as always, I'm betting on San Antonio Reagan and Gavin Chapa to take home third.
As far as results go, San Antonio Reagan has hit three big meets on their schedule that will have prepared them best for this weekend. The first of these was the SA Patriots Invitational where Chapa won the race and the team finished sixth in a rough race. Next, they competed at the Lovejoy XC Fall Festival where Chapa once again won the race and the team finished sixth, this time in a significantly more competitive field. Their final big meet appearance came at the McNeil Invitational where Chapa finished second and the team finished fifth in yet another talented field. While their results haven't necessarily jumped off the page, they've been solid against great competition and that should move them on.
Waiting to get the final spot at the state meet is never a pleasant experience, but San Antonio Reagan should come out with the preferable outcome. They have a top-tier talent leading their squad and they should have enough depth to fight off the remaining contenders for the final spot.