Runner For Runner Comparison For NXR South Girls Team Race

Ava Cole (L) and Rowan Saacke (R) compete at the 2024 UIL 6A Girls State Championships

Predicting the Nike Cross Regionals South girls teams is very difficult. Despite having Flower Mound, one of the best teams nationally assuming to take one of the two automatic qualifiers, the second team qualifier is a difficult task.

First off, of course there is a way Flower Mound can not automatically qualify. This is cross country and there is never a sure thing, that is why they run the races. However, this is the best team in the south and a lot would have to go awry for them not to make it.  I think heads up, they are one of the best teams nationally. They could win NXN this year, while that being a difficult task, their top three runners are one of the best trios in the country. The four and five positions is what will decide the NXN winner.

At NXR South, Flower Mound's No. 4 runner has a better PR than every other team's No. 2 runner and on paper, their five challenges everyone's No. 3.

So, who has the leg up on the second qualifier?

Full disclosure, I am still researching, but if a Homeschool is allowed to compete as a team, the Texas Homeschool champions can throw a wrench in everyone's plans.

The South Texas Homeschool Heat AKA the Latta family just might be the challengers many aren't considering. The are to running what the Jacksons and the von Trapp family were to music.

In my opinion, Elin Latta will qualify for NXN, the only question is will it be individually or as a team. She leads the team with a 16:58 pace and gets back up from sister Iris Latta who lurks around 17-high in most races and has a 17:46 PR. As a team, they ran a 18:38 team average unchallenged at the Texas Homeschool Championships. Their 3:24 gap is what will jeopardize their chances.

Can Rogers find their rhythm again? The defending Arkansas champions can fly and they are stiff competitors as they showed Texas at the Lovejoy Fall Festival earlier this year. Lilly Beshears has a 16:40 PR and is a legit low-stick runner. At their best, Rogers can average 18:03, but they haven't been as sharp over the last couple of meets. 

The same question gos for Northwest Nelson. At their district meet, they flew to a 18:05 team average and only had a 0:40 second spread; that type of performance will punch their ticket to Portland. They weren't clicking on all cylinders at their region or at the 6A state meet. However, they do have two coaches who have won UIL 6A team state championships separately at other programs and one of them has even guided a team to NXR in the past. The runners have what it takes in their legs and the coaches have what it takes between the ears; will it come together is the question?

While we are on the topic of finding a rhythm, Nelson's district competitors Southlake Carroll are in the same situation. They were blazing at their district meet and then while they ran well enough to qualify for state, their region and state meet races were not reflective of their typical performances.

Bridgeland and Smithson Valley enter NXR South in different positions than Rogers, NW Nelson, and Carroll. These two teams have confidence and a groove going for them after strong regional and state meet performances. Usually, that works well for teams, but with nearly three weeks removed from the state meet is the rhythm still there?

Bridgeland ran a 18:27 team average to finish second in the 6A state race with a 1:17 spread. Smithson Valley ran 18:46 with a 0:53 spread to win the 5A race.

Piedmont and Owasso are two Oklahoma teams that I believe are in good positions. Piedmont has the stats on paper and they have experience from a national meet when they competed at Woodbridge earlier in the season.

Owasso won out over Piedmont at the Oklahoma state meet and did so with a 18:28 team average. They are loaded up front with Bella Nelson and Ava Cornelius both being sub 18-minute girls. Then their three and four runners can run tight, it'll come down to the contributions they get from their five spot.