Caden Leonard runs to the finish line at his 2025 district championships
The most exciting time of the year is upon us, as the championship season we've waited so long for is in full swing. This season has brought many twists and turns, with a seemingly wide-open race for the team title. While the race for the individual title may seem slightly less open, with the two-time defending state champion returning to the field, things aren't as closed as history would lead you to believe.
There have been many athletes in the 6A Boys division making their case for a run at the title, but the question remains whether or not Caden Leonard can be dethroned. But before we have any answers, we must first get through the regional meets taking place this coming Monday.
While the regional meet tends to be more of a formality for cemented state title contenders, taking home victory often serves as a key momentum indicator heading into the most important racing of the year. It's by no means a mark of future victory at the state meet, but winning your region cements you into that conversation.
It's been a thrilling season, so let's dive in and predict the individual regional winners in the 6A Boys division.
Region I- Caden Leonard (Southlake Carroll)
Two-time defending state champion Caden Leonard comes in predicted to take home the Region I crown for the third consecutive year. He's won two cross-country state titles to go along with three more on the track, and a podium finish at NXN, making him not only the state's, but potentially the nation's best runner. While the University of North Carolina commit has taken a different approach this year in comparison to years past, there's no indication that it will have any negative effect on his performance in Lubbock; in fact, it will likely help.
As has been well documented, Leonard took a much different approach to this season than in years past. Although we saw him delay racing until the Nike South Invitational at the beginning of October last year, we didn't see him until the district meet this year. Although this may seem unusual, it's a smart move for someone like Leonard, whose racing is much more back-loaded all the way into December, as opposed to other contenders who will likely only race into early November. This structure allows him to peak at the right time, ensuring maximum performance at a meet like Nike Cross Nationals.
While we haven't seen much of Leonard this year, it's still important to run through the numbers to give us an idea of what we should see from him in Lubbock. In 2023, he ran 15:12.40, which earned him the win by just under four seconds in a race that's one of the closest he's had in the state in recent memory. Last year, in 2024, Leonard widened the gap and then some, running 14:53.40 to win the race by over fourteen seconds in dominant fashion.
Winning this race is as close to a sure thing as can be for Leonard; the question is, how fast does he run? Based on past performances and his rate of improvement over the last year, the right conditions will likely see him run in the 14:40s. This race could be closer than last year, given how much Ruel Newberry has improved, but they'll finish 1-2 in the same order as last year thanks to Leonard's experience and status as the nation's top guy.
Other Contenders to Watch: Ruel Newberry, Kai Gutierrez, Noah Loweree
Region II- Griffen Saacke (Bridgeland)
Based on the season he's had, it should be no surprise that Griffen Saacke, out of Bridgeland, comes in projected to retain Bridgeland's hold on the individual crown for the third straight year. Saacke was a key addition to Bridgeland's NXN qualifying team last year and has since stepped up to be that top-tier guy after Benjamin Montgomery's departure. He's been dominant across in-state competition so far this year, including against the likely challengers for the regional title. Saacke has been fast from the jump this year, and his top-flight form should carry him to the regional title.
Unlike Leonard, Saacke has raced more consistently this year, opening up his season at the Strake Jesuit Invitational. We aren't used to seeing Bridgeland run flat courses, making Saacke's 14:40.10 to begin the year all the more impressive. He methodically ran away from the field and looked smoothly controlled while doing so. His second victory of the year then came a week later at the Texas A&M Invitational, where he took home the course record and the win in a time of 14:53.64. Saacke fought with Kai McCullough of Austin Vandegrift for much of this race, but ultimately held strong to come away with the victory over the final 100m.
Saacke's most recent non-district race came at the famous Woodbridge Classic in Irvine, California, a meet that regularly features the nation's best. Saacke came away 23rd in a crowded field in a time of 14:13.30 over three miles (14:43.71 5k conversion). Although it's not a continuation of victory, this result continued his consistent production well under the 15:00 mark, something that makes him a formidable contender as any heading into crunch time.
Saacke's projected victory here doesn't just come from the times he's produced; it comes from who he's beaten. One look at the Region II rankings will show that he's comfortably beaten most of the list already. Saacke came second in this race last year in a time of 15:16.57, so it's reasonable to assume, based on improvement, that he'll end up in the high 14:40s to low 14:50s. It's been a phenomenal senior season for Saacke, and he looks to be one of the strongest contenders for the state championship outside of Caden Leonard.
Other Contenders to Watch: Elton Martin, Cooper Grady, Camden Gibson
Region III- Ryder Darcey (Katy)
After finishing second to a now graduated Benjamin Pearce in 2024, it's only natural that Ryder Darcey comes into the 2025 Region III championship as the favorite. As covered in an individual piece earlier in the season, Darcey has helped reinvigorate the fire in the Katy boys and maintained their consistent presence at the state meet through his continued individual success and impact on those around him. He's had several great performances at some of the state's most competitive meets this year, allowing him to demonstrate why he's the class of Region III heading into the championship on Monday.
As mentioned, Darcey has continually raced at some of the state's most competitive meets this season. He opened up his senior campaign at the Coach T Marcus Invitational, a race that saw him fight with some of the best and finish fourth in a new personal best of 14:58.00. He then followed that up with another successful race at the Texas A&M Invitational, which saw him finish seventh in a time of 15:21.83, narrowly missing out on breaking the previous course record.
Darcey's most recent non-district race came at the Nike South Invitational, where he finished fifth in a nearly identical time to his race on the same course a week earlier. Consistency has been the name of the game this season for Darcey, and that's something that should help propel him to the title in Huntsville. He ran 15:24.00 at regionals last year, so it seems reasonable that we'd see him in the low to mid 15:10s based on the improvements he's made this year.
Darcey's projection as Region III champion comes from a combination of consistency and historic success on the Huntsville course. Since he finished second last year, there's only one place to gain, and that's what he'll do on Monday. He's proven himself as one of the state's best runners of the last two seasons, and that should culminate in representative success at the state level this year.
Other Contenders to Watch: Eli Mugambi, Carter Maloy, Da'Juan Allison
Region IV- Kai McCullough (Austin Vandegrift)
Kai McCullough rounds out my 6A Boys regional predictions and marks the third consecutive year a Southlake Carroll/Bridgeland/Austin Vandegrift trio has been predicted to win their respective regions. McCullough came on strong in place of Hudson Haley towards the end of 2024, solidifying himself as the team's go-to guy with big performances at both the state meet and NXR. Since assuming that position, McCullough has solidified himself as one of the state's most reliable top-tier performers. He continually produces on the biggest stage but also backs it up with one of the state's fastest personal bests, making him a truly well-rounded runner.
Like both Saacke and Darcey, McCullough has raced consistently this season, appearing three times. He began his season at the Coach T Marcus Invitational, where he finished second behind Ruel Newberry in a new personal best of 14:41.00. This race was an important start to the year for McCullough, as not only was it a twelve-second personal best, but it set a new standard that proved he could run under 15:00 consistently. His next race came at the Texas A&M Invitational, where he finished second to Griffen Saacke in a much-covered sprint to the finish in a time of 14:54.80.
McCullough's most recent non-district and perhaps most impressive race of the season came in California at the Woodbridge Classic and saw him finish eleventh in a field stacked with national talent. Not only did he finish eleventh, but he ran 14:10.00 for three miles (14:40.29 5k conversion), which would be another personal best. Although it's ironically his worst placement of the year, I'd make the argument that it's his best race of the year as he further solidified his ability to run at the front of any race with anyone.
Projecting McCullough to come away with the Region IV crown feels like a safe pick. He's consistently been one of the region's best runners over the last two years, and he's proven he can compete with anyone. He ran 15:31.39 at regionals last year, so this year we should expect to see him run in the low to mid 15:10s, given the nature of the course and his improvement in that time. McCullough has proven himself to be one of the state's best over the last year and sits as a favorite for the podium in Round Rock.
Caden Leonard runs to the finish line at his 2025 district championships
The most exciting time of the year is upon us, as the championship season we've waited so long for is in full swing. This season has brought many twists and turns, with a seemingly wide-open race for the team title. While the race for the individual title may seem slightly less open, with the two-time defending state champion returning to the field, things aren't as closed as history would lead you to believe.
There have been many athletes in the 6A Boys division making their case for a run at the title, but the question remains whether or not Caden Leonard can be dethroned. But before we have any answers, we must first get through the regional meets taking place this coming Monday.