Carroll, El Paso Franklin, and Mansfield Legacy athletes compete at the Southlake Invite
We finally get to see the state's best teams go head-to-head with the stakes of keeping their seasons on the line. This year has seen continued continuity with the top teams at the front continuing to push the boundary of what's considered elite. Outside of the top teams, we've also seen several previously underrated teams surge into the competitive conversation, with some looking like they have a legitimate shot at making some noise at the state meet if they can qualify.
While the results of regional races can be difficult to predict due to the often narrow margins that separate teams from comfortable qualification to the end of their season, it's also one of the most enjoyable and intriguing aspects of the year. Last year, we went 13/16 when predicting state meet qualifiers in the 6A division, with all four winners picked correctly.
As with every year, there's plenty of nuance when it comes to comparing teams and predicting things, but we're going to give it our best shot. So, without further ado, let's dive into some predictions for the Region 1-6A Boys Championship.
1. Southlake Carroll
As the reigning state champions for every year in this decade, Southlake Carroll's spot at the top of the Region I rankings is solidified both through legacy and proven performance this year. Despite not racing their full squad until the district round, the Dragons have still maintained as a top-flight team in the state, holding the third overall team score even without their first and second runners. Now with two-time defending state champion Caden Leonard and sophomore star Kai Gutierrez back in the fold, Carroll looks to be back in the driver's seat of their own destiny towards yet another state title.
We recently saw both Leonard and Gutierrez for the first time this season at the UIL 6A-District 4 meet, where they finished 1-2. Leonard predictably won the race in a time of 14:29.00 while Gutierrez followed behind in 14:37.20. While the course is flat, it's important to note the improvements of both guys when compared to their performances last year. Leonard managed 4.5 seconds quicker than last year, off significantly less racing, while Gutierrez improved by nearly 35 seconds under the same circumstances.
Outside of Carroll's 1-2 punch, Michael Fuller has led the team that's raced consistently this year, having several solid performances across meets like the Texas A&M Invitational and the Southlake 5K XC Invite. Fuller will continue to be a key guy for Carroll this championship season as he provides great stability in the number-three spot. Grant Norgart, Claudio Auns, and Jaxon Glenn will all continue to be pivotal depth guys if Carroll wants to repeat yet again.
With their full squad, Southlake Carroll looks to be the favorite to win the state title again. It'll undoubtedly be another tough race given the nature of their competition, but if Leonard and Gutierrez continue fighting at the front while they keep their split around 40 seconds, then the Dragons should be taking another title back to Southlake.
2. El Paso Eastwood
It can be tough to be fully recognized when racing in a region with Southlake Carroll and so many other talented teams. But, El Paso Eastwood has quietly been one of the state's best teams over the last few years. They're coming off a fourth-place finish at last year's state meet and have remained one of the state's top four teams despite losing their star in the form of NXN qualifier Aidan Torres. Several guys have stepped up big to help this team rebound, with junior Noah Loweree making a huge impact as the team's front-running star. Eastwood has been dominant out of West Texas this year and looks set for another run at the podium in a few weeks.
As mentioned, Noah Loweree has been the catalyst for Eastwood's continued run as a top-flight team in 2025. He's won five races this season, running well into the 15:00s in most of them. His current personal best sits at 15:08.89, which came at the Canutillo Invitational, giving him a solid shot at cracking the top ten in Round Rock. Outside of Loweree, Eastwood's top five has been incredible, with the remaining four guys, Job DeSantos, Elias Alcocer, Jacob Lara, and Noah Garcia, all sitting between 15:25 and 15:43 on the season. Their team structure is the kind that wins championships, and they've proven they know how to win across several dominant performances this season. Even on the big stage at Desert Twilight, finishing fourth in the team race against some of the nation's best teams.
While pushing for victory in Lubbock will be a stretch given how talented Southlake Carroll is this year, Eastwood should comfortably qualify for the state meet based on the season they've had. They bring a team with championship experience on the state level and have proven they have the structure and racing pedigree to come away successful. The battle for the podium at the state meet will be much tougher, but for now, Eastwood looks to be in great form, which should take them back to that fighting opportunity with relative ease.
3. Keller
Coming off two teams who finished in the top four of last year's UIL State Championship, the next two qualifying spots are much less set in stone and will require perfect races to secure. That being said, of the teams fighting for the final two spots in Region I, Keller looks to be the most championship-ready team of them all. They've produced several solid races at some of the year's biggest in-state meets and have proven they have what it takes to compete with some of the state's perennial title contenders. Boston Bowcutt has been a critical presence near the front of races this year, leading a pack of guys that provide depth and consistency. It'll by no means be easy, but Keller has the resume to get out of Region I this year.
Boston Bowcutt has been the critical presence this Keller team needed. He's routinely placed in the top ten of big meets like the Texas A&M Invitational and the UIL 6A - District 04 meet. His current season best sits at 14:49.10, which came at the aforementioned district meet, making him one of only a few runners to break into the 14:40s this year. Outside of Bowcutt, Anthony Abeyta has been the team's consistent #2 runner for most of the year. Abeyta has run 15:04.60 at his best this year, meaning his ability to continue producing at that level will be critical if this team wants to make it to Round Rock. Heath Shiflett, Austin Boto, and Cade Swan round out the scorers for this team, with all three falling between 15:12 and 15:27. Cumulatively, Keller's team average sits at 15:09.20 with a 38.4-second split, numbers that should be good enough to get them out.
As is mentioned year after year, getting out of Region I is often tougher than racing the actual state meet for most of the teams that fall in it. But Keller has put together a great resume this year, showcasing marked improvements from their form last year, where they just missed out on qualifying. They've had the exact reaction you'd want out of any contending team, which is to get better on all fronts, and that's what should be the difference maker for them in Lubbock. Nothing is ever guaranteed in this sport as we know all too well, but Keller should qualify out of Region I in the third spot.
4. El Paso Franklin
Rounding out the projected qualifying spots out of Region I is another team from West Texas in the form of El Paso Franklin. Franklin has functioned as a sort of yin to Eastwood's yang this season, with both teams regularly competing at the same meets in some tight races. While Eastwood has come out on top in these affairs, El Paso Franklin has showcased what we believe to be enough to earn a qualifying spot out of Region I. Not only have they competed well with Eastwood, they've also beaten several of the other viable challengers for this spot, including teams like Flower Mound, Mansfield Legacy, Lewisville Hebron, and Lake Highlands. While it's of course only one race, a direct result over a competing team is a critical factor in making these predictions, and that's exactly what El Paso Franklin has done.
On the individual side, Richard Mendoza has been the leader of this team. Mendoza has run 15:19.50 at his best this season, and he's consistently been at or near the front of each race. He's fast and he's reliable, two things that are essential from your low stick in a tight race. Outside of Mendoza, Fransisco Medina and Sebastian Mendez have been a solid 2-3 punch, running 15:30.10 and 15:33.90, respectively. Michael Villa and Jacob Martinez round out the top five in 15:43.80 and 15:57.50, respectively, giving El Paso Franklin a 15:36.96 team average with a 38-second split.
While the numbers show this race is going to be razor-thin as it's come to be known, I'm choosing to bank on El Paso Franklin's direct results over their fellow competitors for the final qualifying spot. They've gone head-to-head with many of the teams they'll face in Lubbock, and have turned in multiple close races against a team that will comfortably qualify out of their region and head to Round Rock. As has been repeated countless times in these predictions over the years, nothing is set in stone, and things often change depending on who has a good day or a bad day. But, El Paso Franklin has the resume and has had the season needed to qualify out of Region I, and that's what they'll do in the fourth spot.
Other Contenders to Watch: Northwest Nelson, Flower Mound, Mansfield Legacy, Lewisville Hebron, Lake Highlands