Kai McCullough finishes second at the 20205 Texas A&M Inv. in 14:54
We finally get to see the state's best teams go head-to-head with the stakes of keeping their seasons on the line. This year has seen continued continuity with the top teams at the front continuing to push the boundary of what's considered elite. Outside of the top teams, we've also seen several previously underrated teams surge into the competitive conversation, with some looking like they have a legitimate shot at making some noise at the state meet if they can qualify.
While the results of regional races can be difficult to predict due to the often narrow margins that separate teams from comfortable qualification to the end of their season, it's also one of the most enjoyable and intriguing aspects of the year. Last year, we went 13/16 when predicting state meet qualifiers in the 6A division, with all four winners picked correctly.
As with every year, there's plenty of nuance when it comes to comparing teams and predicting things, but we're going to give it our best shot. So, without further ado, let's dive into some predictions for the Region 4-6A Boys Championship.
1. Austin Vandegrift
As the multiple-time defending Region IV champions, coming off a runner-up finish at the state meet, Austin Vandegrift is another team whose positioning at the top of their region is more of a formality than something that's up for debate. Vandegrift consistently finishes on the podium at the state meet and has multiple NXN qualifications to bolster its already robust resume of individual talents and great teams. While this year's Vandegrift team may not have performed to the same level of dominance as last year's team, they've still proven to be one of the state's best, regularly contending across the most competitive meets on the state's docket throughout the year. Add this competitiveness to the elite low stick that is Kai McCullough, and Vandegrift looks to have another great shot at the podium this year.
Vandegrift frontman Kai McCullough came on strong in place of Hudson Haley towards the end of 2024, solidifying himself as the successor the the long-standing Vandegrift front-running throne. Since assuming that position, McCullough has solidified himself as one of the state's most reliable top-tier performers. 2025 has been his best season yet, producing consistently under the 15:00 mark for the first time in his career. Some of his notable performances include running 14:41.00 at the Coach T Marcus Invitational, a strong 14:54.80 at the Texas A&M Invitational, and a converted 14:40.29 at the Woodbridge Classic. McCullough has been one of the state's top guys for over a year now, and he should take home the individual Region IV title before contending for the big one in Round Rock.
Moving on to the rest of Vandegrift's squad, we've notably missed preseason #6 runner Collin Goodwin for most of the year. However, in his place, Miles Nutt has stepped up as a consistent performer for the Vipers, running 15:17.06 at his best this season. Freshman Avinash Dewagan has also been a bright spot, running 15:41.39 and being one of the state's best underclassmen throughout his first campaign. Notably, Goodwin returned for the district round, where he ran 16:11.00. It's unlikely we'll see him at his peak at this point in the year, but at his skill level, we know he'll be an important contributor and a healthy addition to this already talented squad.
There isn't much to say about Austin Vandegrift as a program that hasn't already been said. They're continually one of the two most competitive teams in Texas, and this ability to consistently retain and develop top talent is well known. Although their state title prospects may be murkier than they were in 2024, this team is still a strong podium contender that should come away with yet another victory in the regional round.
2. Round Rock
Coming into the second qualifying spot out of Region IV is yet another consistent Austin area program in the form of Round Rock. While Round Rock hasn't matched the title-contending form of Vandegrift in recent years, they've built themselves into a consistent lock for state meet qualification, something that's by no means easy to do in a state where the competitive landscape is so diverse. 2025 has largely mirrored previous seasons for Round Rock. They've consistently racked up solid performances and wins on some big stages, and they look to be comfortably set in the region's #2 spot heading into the meet on Monday. Andrew Esparza has once again been phenomenal for this team and will continue to guide them towards success on Monday and beyond.
As has been the case since last season, junior Andrew Esparza has been Round Rock's lead man. He's run 14:55.00 at his best this season and has looked to be one of the region's top runners for the second straight year. Outside of Esparza, Landon Fluckiger, Zachary Stevens, and Leo Brasil have all been critical sub-16 performers, running between 15:36 and 15:53 on the year. The combination of Esparza's front-running production, coupled with a strong cast of sub-16 depth, makes Round Rock not only a complete team with an outstanding lineup, but also one of the region's safer bets to head back to the state meet in a few weeks time.
Round Rock has been one of the most consistent programs in a region that continually sees its state qualifiers change from year to year. This speaks not only to their level of talent but also to their ability to develop talent as a program. They've quietly built one of the state's most solid teams this year and should head to their home course for the state meet yet again.
3. San Antonio Johnson
The first non-Austin area team projected to qualify out of Region IV comes in the form of San Antonio Johnson. Historically one of the city's best 6A teams, this year's Johnson squad has mirrored the formula we've seen many of the state's top teams find success with, that form being keeping a tight spread and scoring critical points in the upper pack rather than having a truly defined frontrunner. Because of this makeup, this Johnson team doesn't have one specific guy topping the timesheets and leading the way. Instead, they have a tight pack of guys that score big points, a formula that's brought them success this year and should send them back to Round Rock.
This Johnson squad is led by two guys who have run the exact same time of 15:35.57 on the year in the form of Nicolas Repper-Molina and Kyle Wunderli. Both guys have proven to be consistent and reliable for this squad as they score valuable points each week. Angel Olmo and Brett Packard have also been critical for this team's success, with both running 15:47.76 and 15:48.04, respectively. Ethan Aponte rounds out the top five in 16:11.58, giving this San Antonio Johnson team a 15:47.71 team average with a 36-second split. That split is the main thing that stands out about this team in comparison to the other teams in this region. If they can keep it where it is, they'll qualify easily.
San Antonio Johnson has been on the cusp of the state meet several times over the past few years, along with several qualifications. This year's team appears to have both the necessary performance and consistency to make it back to Round Rock. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but if they can keep their pack together, it'll be difficult to take a qualifying spot from them.
4. Schertz Clemens
Schertz Clemens rounds out the final qualifying spot out of Region IV, marking yet another year of change in a Region that's seen a lot of turnover over the final two qualifying spots in recent years. Picking this spot is often one of the most difficult things to do in this region due to the sheer amount of depth it possesses. That being said, Schertz Clemens has both a strong frontrunner and supporting cast that, if they have their best day, should be able to get out and head to the state meet. Junior leader Sean Gonzalez has had a big year and been the catalyst for this team's success, currently sitting as one of the region's top individuals. It'll be tough, but Schertz Clemens makes the best case for the final qualifying spot.
As mentioned, Sean Gonzalez has been a pivotal factor in this team's success this year. He's run 15:05.60 at his best and has looked like one of the region's best individuals both on a time and pure racing basis. Outside of Gonzalez, Jayce Love has been a critical contributor, running 15:27.70 while both Aric Pinguelo and Trevor Lawson have produced under the sixteen-minute mark at 15:47.30 and 15:52.88, respectively. While this team is undoubtedly fast on paper, their 89-second split is a cause for concern in a region where their competitors run much closer together. While it's alleviated somewhat by their speed, it could spell doom if they have a rough day on Monday.
Picking the final qualifying spot out of Region IV is often one of the most difficult spots to pick. In fact, it's been my worst-predicted spot in three years of doing these predictions. That being said, Schertz Clemens looks to have the pace on paper that should elevate them to the state meet. While their split will need to improve if they want to consider themselves safe, they have the best resume of the teams fighting for this final spot at the moment, and that's what puts them here.
Other Contenders to Watch: Medina Valley, Austin Lake Travis, Northside Sotomayor, Northside Brandeis
Kai McCullough finishes second at the 20205 Texas A&M Inv. in 14:54
We finally get to see the state's best teams go head-to-head with the stakes of keeping their seasons on the line. This year has seen continued continuity with the top teams at the front continuing to push the boundary of what's considered elite. Outside of the top teams, we've also seen several previously underrated teams surge into the competitive conversation, with some looking like they have a legitimate shot at making some noise at the state meet if they can qualify.
While the results of regional races can be difficult to predict due to the often narrow margins that separate teams from comfortable qualification to the end of their season, it's also one of the most enjoyable and intriguing aspects of the year. Last year, we went 13/16 when predicting state meet qualifiers in the 6A division, with all four winners picked correctly.