Predictions: 4A Girls Individual Region Champions

Region I-4A's girls two-mile sets up like a title defense and a time trial rolled into one. Addyson Bristow (Canyon) arrives with the state's scariest résumé and the region's fastest entry mark, 10:37.79 from the District 4-4A meet, backed by undefeated 2025 form. She's proven on every stage and surface: 10:53 to win at Hoka McNeil on the state course, 11:32 for a controlled win on the regional venue earlier this fall, and a 16:44 5K in early September that telegraphed her aerobic ceiling.

Zoom out and the dominance looks even sturdier: she hasn't lost a race since March, when she ran a 10:14.99 3200m for third at Texas Relays, and she's the two-time defending regional and two-time defending state cross country champion (11:08 at both region and state in 2024 after a 10:32 district; 11:31 region/11:08 state in 2023 following an 11:00 district). In short, Bristow owns both the fastest entry time and the deepest history of closing on championship day.

That said, a true final isn't a coronation, especially in this region. Dumas sophomore Emily Gross (10:58 at district) is the reigning 3200m state champion on the track and has the wheels to keep the elastic from snapping if Bristow drives early. Randall junior Brooke French, runner-up to Gross at the state 3200m and a two-time XC state bronze medalist, brings bankable big race habits; she's rarely rattled when the pace yo-yos or when the course asks for strength late. If Bristow chooses her typical "press from the gun" script, Gross is the most likely to go with her through the mile, while French's best path is a disciplined negative split that punishes anyone who overcooks the opening kilometer.

Course familiarity also tilts toward the favorite. Bristow has already banked a wire-tight rehearsal on the regional layout and a quality win on the Round Rock state course. That matters in a two-mile where rhythm changes and footing can steal seconds: she's shown she can manage both tempo surges and late hills without bleeding time.

For an upset, miracles do exist, and the ingredients are clear: let Bristow do more work in the wind, keep the front pack dense through 1.5 miles, and force a last 400m that turns the race from strength to speed. In that scenario, Gross's 3200m pedigree and French's closing composure give them winning strategies.

Prediction lens: Bristow remains the clear favorite; her combination of top-end time (10:37), tactical versatility, top-end speed, and championship repetitions is unmatched. The race for second is a live contest between Gross and French, with Gross slightly favored if the pace is honest and French narrowing the gap if the field blinks early. The rest of Region I has quality, but unless the tempo stalls dramatically, the winner's ceiling (and history) still points to Bristow defending her crown.

Region II-4A's girls two-mile looks like Abigail Kelley's moment to step from "top returner" to undeniable favorite. The Lindale junior was third here a year ago, and with 2024's champion (Gidelle Alejandro) and runner-up (Tatum Cross) graduating, the path runs straight through her.

The resume checks every box: four sub-12s this fall, including 11:50 at District 15 and 11:51 at her home invitational, plus early-season wins in 11:22-11:25 territory that signal both strength and range. Add in a single loss (to a two-time TAPPS state champion) and the track credentials, fifths at state in both the 1,600 and 3,200, with a stack of sub-12 3200s, and you get a reliable low stick who tends to cash that fitness when the stakes rise.

The most credible threat to Kelley's control is Farah Hughey (Sanger), the region's only other sub-12 performer this season (11:49 at Hoka McNeil). Hughes' ability to touch that gear on the Round Rock course matters; it means she can survive an honest early kilo and still close when fatigue hits. If Kelley presses from the gun, a pattern that's worked for her on varied courses, Hughes' best route is to mark the move just off the shoulder and gamble on the final 600m. If the pace softens, expect things to compress and turn tactical, which favors anyone with a sharper kick.

Behind that pair, Celina senior Ava Samuel and Hillsboro's Fabiola Prieto feel like podium anchors. Each carries a 12:14 season best from Hoka McNeil, fast enough to punish any mid-race lull and opportunistic enough to capitalize if the leaders overreach. Samuel's "top-10 returner" status hints at championship experience in traffic, while Prieto's seasonal arc suggests she's peaking on schedule. In a deep middle pack, the difference for medals could be who dares to bridge to the leaders before the final hill rather than waiting for the last straight.

Prediction lens: Kelley remains the chalk-her consistency (four sub-12s, near-perfect record) and big-race history point to a wire-to-wire or controlled-from-the-front win. Hughes is the clearest late-race threat and most likely runner-up, with Samuel and Prieto in a tight fight for the final podium step. If wind or congestion turns the opening mile cagey, expect a bigger pack at 1.5 miles and a furious kick-but the most probable script still ends with Kelley breaking the tape.

Region 3-4A's girls two-mile sets up as McCall Boyd's title to defend-and, frankly, to control. The Salado sophomore hasn't cracked 12:00 only once all fall, and even that came in a wire-to-wire district win (12:09). Her season ledger is built on big-stage proof: 11:23 at Salado Tenroc, 11:38 at Hoka McNeil, plus durable 5K/3-mile efforts that show she can grind when courses get honest (19:34 at Cedar Park, 20:05 at Cowboy Jamboree).

What makes Boyd more than a front-runner is her championship wiring. Since undergoing brain surgery right before entering high school, she's rebuilt from the ground up and then promptly won region as a freshman, placed eighth at state, and added 5:07/11:24 track speed last spring. That blend of resilience, range, and resume is exactly what travels when the gun goes off and the pack squeezes.

If anyone can turn the race into a duel, it's Hudson's breakout sophomore Annie Stewart. She owns multiple wins in the low-12s and a legitimate sub-12 ceiling (11:56 Hudson Invite) with a high-pressure rep from Hoka McNeil (11:52). Stewart's best path is tactical: stick within a stride or two through the opening kilometer, let Boyd do the air-breaking into the wind, then test the favorite's heels over the second mile. She finished ninth at region last year-experience that matters when gaps open and medals are decided in the back half.

Lorena's Jayla Fish is the third pillar of the podium conversation and maybe the day's stealth threat. Runner-up to Boyd at region last year, Fish has run a season's worth of winning efforts in the mid-11:40s to 11:50s (11:46 at District 23; top-15 at McNeil). She's methodical, rarely over-extends early, and tends to surge late once the course tilts in her favor. If Boyd and Stewart get too ambitious before the mile, Fish's steadiness can reel back a fading leader.

Prediction lens: Boyd sets an honest rhythm from the gun and dares the field to cover; Stewart marks and forces a long, hard finish; Fish closes to lock the podium. The most likely order is Boyd-Stewart-Fish, but if the pace turns cagey and the kick decides it, the gap between silver and bronze could be measured in steps, not seconds. Either way, the road to Round Rock is running through Salado's star again.

Region 4-4A's girls two-mile shapes up like a sequel with higher stakes: Fredericksburg senior Rilyn Grona vs. Wimberley sophomore Corina Joyce, two veterans peaking right on schedule.

Grona arrives with a fresh PR (11:21) from the District 26-4A win, a result that mirrors her late-season surge from 2024 when she rode district win momentum to a Corpus win and on to a top-four at state (after 10th and 8th the two years prior). Her resume this fall includes a 7th at Hoka McNeil (11:42 two-mile), 22nd at the Texas A&M Invite 5K (19:15), and steady early-season strength-says she's durable enough for an honest pace and sharp enough to close. Add in 2:15 800m wheels and four years of big-meet reps on powerhouse Fredericksburg squads, and you get the most proven closer in the field.

Joyce, though, is no longer the chaser she was a year ago. She matched Grona stride-for-stride at district and stopped the clock in 11:22, her best two-mile of 2025. The arc checks out: a win in 11:35 for 3200m at Mason, a top-10 at McNeil (11:45), then a cascade of low-12s that culminate in that district breakthrough. She's moved from 7th at districts (2024) to 2nd this year, and from 17th at region/52nd at state to very likely far better. Joyce's path to the upset is tactical: keep the opening kilometer honest but not frantic, use the mid-race rhythm to hold contact when gaps usually form on the Corpus course's exposed sections, then force Grona to kick from distance rather than out of a jog to a sprint.

Course dynamics matter here. Region IV's layout in Corpus Christi often trades shade for speed-firm footing, long sightlines, and whatever wind the Gulf gifts that morning. In a tailwind-aided first mile, both athletes can get to halfway under 5:40 pace; the race will likely be decided between 1.2 and 1.7 miles when the wind shifts, legs sting, and poise counts. That's where Grona's championship muscle memory typically surfaces: she's been here, led here, and closed here. Joyce's best counter is to make that segment a grind rather than a chess match-minimize surges, maximize efficiency, and keep the elastic from snapping.

Prediction lens: the edge goes to Grona on experience and finishing speed, with Joyce positioned to make it a true two-woman final in the last 400 meters. If the pace is hot from the gun, expect a winning time in the 11:20-11:30 window; if it gets tactical, watch for a negative-split last mile and a dash that rewards Grona's 800m gear. Either way, both look poised to convert this regional into momentum for Round Rock-one defending a crown, the other rewriting last year's chapter.