Girls Team Preview
This year at NXN South will be interesting. The top talent in this race is proving to be a bit of an equalizer. Almost all of the top teams have an athlete who will finish in the Top-5, and almost all have another athlete pushing to make the Top-10. There's no one team that is getting a significant advantage over the rest by having a front runner. Most are pretty equal in that regard, the team race will be decided by 3-5 runners.
The Favorites: Top Picks for NXN Qualifiers
Marcus: They are the "favorites"...they have to be. Marcus is undefeated and won major invitationals/state against teams that are on the verge of being nationally ranked. With that said...this is about as close as you can get to being the favorite...while not being even remotely close to having this race locked down. There are too many good teams that are evenly matched. With how well Marcus has run this year, I believe they still haven't come close to their potential. They have an extremely talented group that has yet to really have their top runners execute at 100% on the same day. Maddy Reed ran well at McNeil while Quinn Owen finished 9th. Quinn ran well at state with Maddy finishing 13th. The ceiling is very high for this group in 2015, and I don't believe they've come close to it yet. Even with how talented they are, they are by no means a lock for a NXN auto spot. From the start of the season, Marcus has had sights on NXN. Wanting to go back and get a chance to really compete, compared to the 2014 performance. Keep an eye on Quinn Owen, she's a member of the absurdly talented sophomore class that is taking over Texas XC.
Southlake Carroll: Out of the top teams in the state, no one comes close to the compression Southlake has in their Top-5. To make it worse...depending on what singlet you're wearing...their 6th is never far behind. It is well within the realm of possibility to see the girls championship race come down to a tie breaker, a scenario which would favor the girls from Carroll. The historically great high school teams have been defined by the depth and strength of their pack. While the 2015 Southlake girls may not be as individually talented as other Texas teams, you can't argue the strength of their group as a whole.
In The Hunt...aka "The Favorites" Part 2
Keller: What's next for Keller? They've completed their most successful XC season in a very long time, finishing 2nd at Region and 3rd at State. The team has individual talent in front runner Abbey Santoro and the depth to back her up. Santoro had the race of her life to finish 3rd two weeks ago behind Heymach and Reagan Kappel. She has established herself as the leader of the Keller squad, and they will need another big finish from the rising sophomore to give them them the low stick in the larger NXN South field. They don't have the back end depth in their 5th-7th runners of some of the other teams, which has hurt them in some big races. Led by 4 underclassmen, if 2015 isn't the year we see a Keller team return to nationals, expect to see them in Oregon in 2016.
Kingwood: State showed us that Kingwood is a good team. Not because they won, but even with the group not able to execute to their full potential, they still finished a close 4th in the deepest team race of the meet. I don't believe that race is an accurate point to predict their performance at NXN South. Abby Guidry finished much further back than was expected. The University of Texas commit can run with the best in the state at any race. Look for her to bounce back and be pushing the Top-5 this weekend. With Guidry finishing with the leaders, and the rest of the Kingwood squad firing on all cylinders, this a potential NXN qualifying team.
In The Hunt...aka "The Favorites" Part 3
Hebron: Wait, what? Hebron before SV?...yup. Getting bold here and going with the Hawks to have a big race. While the roster has changed, they went to NXN in 2014...they finished SIXTH in 2014...they know how to execute when it matters most, they know what it takes to run well on the NXN South course, they have some some of the best individuals in the entire state...this Hebron team has the pieces to extend their season. It will take near perfect performances across the board for these girls to make the cut, but Hebron has been one of the best teams in when it comes to racing at full potential at the most important events. Go back and look at state results and the pieces in play...things could've turned out very differently in the Top-3/5 teams. Anna Elkin and Abby Riordan have been attached at the hip in races all year and should continue that trend. Searching for Top-10/Top-5 scoring positions in another loaded girls championship race.
Smithson Valley: When a runner who most likely would've scored single digit points finishes 151st and 2nd to last...it's not a winning formula. Unfortunately state didn't play out as hoped for the SV girls. They dropped back to 8th, scoring 166 points after an off day for Kerri Welch. They'll be searching for redemption in The Woodlands tomorrow. They have an eerily similar build to Keller. 4 of their top-5 are underclassmen, they have talented lead runners who can score single digits, and they lack a little depth back with their 5th-7th. We could potentially see Keller vs SV become the new powerhouse battles in the years to come. Expect Kylie Welch to break Top-10, and if Kerri is racing at 100% again, she should be right with her. If that duo can race well, it will have a huge impact on the girls championship race this year.
In The Hunt...for real this time
Sleeper Pick - Flower Mound: Maybe I've been writing for too long...maybe I'm just crazy...or things are about to get real interesting. YES I am adding a team to the watch list that didn't even make it out of their Region...even it was the Region Of Doom. So why do you need to keep an eye on Flower Mound? Laura Fairchild. For those who have forgotten about the talented Hebron transfer...as a freshman in 2014, she was 7th at state, 15th at NXN South competed at NXN, and went on to run 11:02 and 5:02 on the track. Fairchild is back and will be wearing a Flower Mound uniform in the championship race. Sarah Fairchild will also be racing, but as more of a 400m/800m specialist wont have as big of an impact. If you take out the seniors, and athletes not returning to NXN South, only a handful of athletes are returning that finished ahead of Laura Fairchild in 2014. What can we expect? That's a big unknown. She has competed in a few JV races, but with no competition, there was no need to push herself, so the times do not stand out. She is without a doubt one of the most talented distance runners in Texas, but she hasn't been racing much, and more importantly, hasn't been raced in an elite field all season. Regardless of where your fitness level is, that first race back is always difficult. We will see what kind of form Fairchild is in tomorrow. IF she can perform anywhere near her 2014 NXN South level, she has a shot to make NXN, Flower Mound could surprise a lot of teams, and she displace a lot of other athletes on the teams in the hunt for the NXN team spots.