Boys Individual Preview
The biggest takeaway from this race should be that it's a complete mess. Write the names of the Top 15-20 on notecards, throw them off the roof of your house, go down and randomly pickup 5 cards, and I bet whatever names you read...you wouldn't be surprised if they finished in the Top-5 on Saturday. Below are big names to watch, unfortunately I can't spend the time to do justice to all the good athletes because I would still be here writing when the races go off Saturday morning. With the number of individuals that the qualifying teams could put in the Top-10, the remaining places will be hotly contested. We could see the individual qualifying spots be awarded pretty far back this year.
The Lead Pack: Guys who will leading the race and fighting for Top-5
Dan Golden: Not much needs to be said of the recent UT commit. He's run nearly unbeaten all year, and solidified his elite status by crossing the line first in Round Rock. I don't forsee this race being that "easy", meaning the elite runners wont separate to the extent they did at state, but there's no question Golden will be a major factor in this field.
Reed Brown: Talk to any of the top runners in the state about their race strategy before or after the competition, and almost every time they'll be some mention of Reed Brown's kick. He is the best finisher in Texas. He out kicked the best athlete in Missouri at Chile Pepper, he ran well against the California elite at Clovis, and tore up the track all season in the spring. While he was distanced by the leaders at state, he still unleashed his signature head-down burst to out kick a big pack for 5th. I see it being much more difficult for the leaders to open that same 10 second gap on Brown this time around. In which case, everyone better be confident in their closing leg speed to challenge the junior from Southlake.
Sam Worley: It's not over till it's over...have been my thoughts on Worley the past few weeks. I've heard doubters after Region, where he only qualified for state through his team, and he DNFed at the State Meet...but *if healthy* there are very few athletes in the state who can beat the junior who is following in the footsteps of former teammate Alex Rogers, who is on his way to D1 Nationals this weekend in Louisville. Assuming Worley is back in top form this weekend, which is unknown at this point...he qualifies for NXN.
Adam Breaux: I think the College Park senior will bounce back in a big way this weekend. Putting his state performance in the past to pull off a big individual finish and help lead his squad to the top of the NXN South team scores.
Hayden Murphy: There's on lot on the line for the Grapevine senior. As mentioned in the team preview, Grapevine is my sleeper pick for an upset performance. A lot will be on the shoulder of Murphy to drop a low single digit score to give them that boost in the large field. He finished 3rd at state and has dropped fast times all season. Top-3 is likely out of reach, but if he has a good chance to break the Top-5/10 and at the very least put himself in a position to qualify as an individual for NXN.
Connor O'Neill: The Dallas Jesuit junior has competed in six races this season, and his seventh could be the game changer. O'Neill has been right in the mix when competing against other elite Texas runners, and just needs one breakout race to prove that he permanently deserves to be talked about in the same way as the athletes we know are at the top of the state. If he adds his name to the short list of runners to qualify for NXN, there's no doubt he will be ready for a dominant year in 2016.
Carter Persyn/Nathan Gift: For some reason, these two guys merge in my mind. Besides the fact that they finished within a second of each other at state, their track&XC PRs are SCARY similar. A grand total of 5 seconds separates their combined 1600/3200/5K personal best marks! They both run in strong Regions, they both have won big races this year, and they both are on the bubble of a Top-5 finish. I don't need Persyn of Gift to prove anything anymore. They are two of the best distance runners in the state, now it just remains to be seen if they can qualify for a national championship
In The Hunt:
Jon Bishop: After his big breakout performance running 4:12 in the TTFCA Meet of Champions 1600m, it took him a long time to begin competing this season, and get back into racing shape. He quickly ran to the top of the 5A ranks after finishing runner up at Region 3 and 4th at State. Bishop has the speed to close fast at the end of a race, and he could be dangerous if he can hang with the leaders.
Ethan Hageman: He was the only underclassmen to crack the Top-10 in the 6A race at state, and finished a very impressive 4th in the deepest individually talented field in Texas. The SA Holmes sophomore also finished 2nd at Region, and has now shown he has the potential to run with the top runners in the state. I don't think that the results this weekend will look anything like the state meet, and it's going to be tough for Hageman to replicate that state finish.
[Insert Woodlands Athlete Here]....is essentially what any Top-10 position could say if you were predicting the top finishers. We know know how dominant they are, and they are poised to drop another mind blowing low score this weekend. It's just a matter of how many guys they put into the Top-10/Top-15. Matt McClellan is arguably the best track athlete on the team, and he finally put together his best race of the season at state, able to hang with teammate Will Hinsdale to break the Top-10 in that race. Noah Wells has to be watched for a Top-5 finish. He was the only athlete who could keep pace with Dan Golden in the 5K mud fest at Round Rock.
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Zach Black: The relatively unknown runner from Oklahoma made big waves by winning a duel with Jenks standout Matt Young. While Young wont be racing, he would've been a contender for a NXN spot based off his close finish to Worley and O'Neill at the Southlake Invite. He's a much stronger XC compared to track, and won his division at the Oklahoma State Meet. Based off of the head to head comparisons with Young, Zack Black is a wild card thrown into this race who could pull off a big upset and secure his trip to Portland against some very talented individuals.
Devyn Keith: The Louisiana standout has been dominating his state all season, and won his championship on Wednesday. That's a very short turn around for a distance athlete, with travel, to try to compete at a high level just days later. Keith broke the overall Louisiana state record this year...though the concept of a state record in XC based on time and not course is a bit absurd...anyways...Keith is a strong runner, but it's a big ask for him to put together two big races in such a short time period. He could run with the leaders this weekend, but I don't see him able to hang for 5K against the elite runners coming in with fresh legs.
Nic Butts: He has made is intentions clear. He is gunning for a qualifying finish. He wants to make NXN, and has a lot of confidence coming off of his state winning finish. To make it more significant, Butts holds the fastest overall time from the state meet this year. The 3A athlete will toe the line with the best athletes in the South Region. After talking to him at State, he's not afraid of the big school/big names athletes at NXN South. Don't sleep on the Whiteboro senior.
Daniel Bernal: Historically, Eastwood has not competed well at State compared to how they race earlier in the season. They fell back to 14th this year after Bernal had a off day, barely breaking the Top-75. His 67th at NXN South in 2014 isn't too encouraging, but Bernal is still a talented runner. He pulled away from Reed Brown and David Strome to win Region 1. If he can race close to the effort it took to execute in Lubbock, Bernal should be in the mix for a Top-10 and a possible trip to Portland.
Briggs Wittlake/Wes McPhail: Another instance of two athletes that are virtually the same runner. They've been back and forth all season. McPhail will finish ahead of Wittlake one week, and then they'll flip flop the next. Though they never finish too far apart. The two teammates have a dedicated following in Amarillo that is sure to come out in a big show of support. It's just a matter of consistency, they will put up a huge result one week, and finish in the mix with the state's top runners, but have an off week the next. If that trend were to hold true...they had an off day at state, meaning it's time for a big bounce back performance at NXN South. If they put together a good race, they could potentially BOTH not only break the Top-10, but also find themselves on a plane to Oregon in a few weeks.