NXN South In Depth Preview

The Woodlands: It will take a herculean effort for anyone to upset this team on Saturday. They have been an unbeatable force in Houston all season, and finally proved themselves to the rest of the state in dominating fashion. Back in what may be considered the "Golden Era" of Woodlands boys XC, they finished Top-4 at NXN three years in a row between 2007-2009. During that time, they scored between 56 and 70 points at the state meet. They annihilated that total by scoring 24 points in Round Rock in 2015. Could this be the best team EVER from The Woodlands? They have one last stop this weekend before advancing to Portland where we will find out the answer to that question.

Southlake Carroll: The boys from Southlake have had a roller coaster type season. Performing extremely well in some races, while just not seeming to be able to get a race at 100% from their Top-5/7 at others. They had an uncharacteristic off day at State two weeks ago, narrowly taking 2nd ahead of Flower Mound and College Park. If there's one thing we've come to expect from The Dragons over the years at NXN South, they are virtually a lock for Top-2. They know how to execute during championship season, and they know how to race this course. 

In The Hunt

Flower Mound: Maybe one of the biggest surprises from UIL State were the guys from Flower Mound. It was no secret that they are a solid team, but they had just been beaten by Southlake by about 80 points at the Region meet. To bounce back for third place just EIGHT points behind was a huge result that needs to be noticed. They had a tight 39s second 1-5 compression that trailed just The Woodlands and College Park in that category. It remains to be seen if they can replicate that performance, but they will be right in the mix of teams chasing down Southlake for the second auto spot at NXN.

College Park: We can always throw around "what if" scenarios after races. Especially at meets like UIL State where the conditions significantly impacted many teams. Ultimately, either you raced well, or you didn't. College Park didn't have their best day and finished 4th. BUT, it is important to point out that Adam Breaux finished by scoring 22 points for his team. He has proven all year that he can hang with Dan Golden and the leaders through most of the race. His state result is certainly not indicative of his overall talent. To contradict what I've just said...WHAT IF Breaux had finished scoring 7 points (which is a very reasonable assumption). That 15 point difference combined with the Southlake runners he would've displaced puts College Park right in the mix for 2nd at State. This team has been living in The Woodlands' shadow all season, unfortunately not receiving the attention they deserve because they race repeatedly against a squad now ranked in the US Top-10. Don't sleep on College Park, they have a legitimate chance to break into the Top-2.

Katy: These guys have been talked about a lot this season, and for good reasons. They've had a breakout year with by far the most success the school has ever had during cross country. The potential was there for a big finish at State, but they were another team that was hit hard by the conditions and just barely managed to break the Top-5. A follow up Top-5 at NXN South would be a big accomplishment for this rising distance squad.

So that's a lot highlighting the 6A teams in the state, what about the rest? Could we see a smaller conference team break into the Top-5? The answer...probably not. BUT that's not to there's no chance at all.

Sleeper Pick: Grapevine: These guys didn't have the race they were looking for at State. They fell back to third by a large margin to Wakeland and Lovejoy. While early season (Aug/Sep) races don't matter...there are two important things to remember about Grapevine. First, they finished 2nd at Marcus 1, only being bested by Southlake Carroll. Second, they finished 2nd at McNeil by just 19 points to Katy and over 100 points ahead of Flower Mound. So why is this important? There's a very big difference in those races compared to the State championships. Marcus 1 and Mcneil have significantly larger fields, closer to the field size we will see at NXN South. Grapevine has proven their team finishes well in larger fields with combined 5A/6A teams and could be a dark horse for a big finish this weekend.

Frisco Wakeland has run well all season, and the 5A State Champions finished Top-5 in the 5A/6A combined Elite race at Marcus 1. They have two lead pack runners in Cameron and Justin King that have the ability to score under 20 points. They don't have the depth through the rest of their scorers on paper, they'll need big efforts for a chance to move up against the deeper 6A teams.

Luling: This team deserves a mention because they have performed at an unmatched level in the 3A conference. The easiest comparison would be "The Woodlands" of 3A. Yes the course conditions were much better when they ran as the second race of the day at State, but still they deserve a lot of credit because they were 2nd in the OVERALL team score merge from state. More impressively, it was by a large margin, about 70 points back to San Elizario/Southlake in 3rd/4th. There's no doubt that they will improve on their 18th place finish at NXN South in 2014. Where they will matchup in the end is a big unknown. Top-10 would be a huge accomplishment for this small school team against the 5A/6A powerhouse programs.