We've reached the final frontier as the top boys teams and individuals will finally face off this Saturday in what's sure to be an epic battle for the state title.
We've been waiting for this day all year and to say it's exciting that we're finally here is an understatement. There's been a lot to unpack this year as we've seen contrasting seasons from teams that were expected to be top contenders, while some surprising teams could very well find their way onto the podium this weekend.
As with every important meet this year, there's a lot to unpack and look at when making predictions, and many times there's even more to unpack after the race. Today we're going to give it our best shot in predicting which teams will be on the podium, as well as which individuals we think have the potential to take home a state title themselves.
So with that being said, let's make some predictions for the biggest meet of the year and find out who will have the most triumphant end to their season.
Team Predictions
1. Southlake Carroll
Often in predictions for big events, there's a temptation to come up with a "hot take" and pick against a longstanding dynasty or the statistical leader.
However, there's simply no conceivable way to pick against Southlake Carroll yet again this year as they've produced another complete team top to bottom. On paper, this team has no holes as they have everything you could ever want in a cross-country team.
Whether it be Caden Leonard running away with the race out front or a slew of talented depth runners who all run right next to each other, good luck finding a way to beat this team.
However, to understand what makes a team as close to untouchable as Southlake Carroll, we first have to understand what they've done to earn this title this year. Put simply, Carroll has been untouchable against in-state competition this season and the only loss they have is to the No. 1 ranked team nationally. In fact, the closest in-state race the Dragons have had came at the UIL 1A-6A Region 1 Championship where they still came away with a thirty-six-point victory and put five runners inside the top twenty-five.
Not only does Southlake Carroll have an outstanding ability to run as a team and score points, they also boast some of the best individual talent in the state. The Dragons are led by sophomore star Caden Leonard who has run 14:56 at his best this year which currently gives him the third fastest time in the state. Senior Jude Alvarez has also played a critical role for Southlake this year as he currently holds the fifth fastest time in Texas in the form of a 14:59.
Having two sub-fifteen-minute performers would be enough for some, but not for the Dragons as the rest of their top seven is impressive and then some. Blake Bullard and Zach Troutman have held down the third and fourth spots respectively this season, running 15:12 and 15:13 at their best. Alex Severson rounds out the top five in 15:38 while Ryan Van de Berghe and Griffin Cords finish off the top seven at 15:41.
Put simply, this team is stacked top to bottom and it's hard to see anyone finding a big enough hole or gap to exploit and overtake this team. Not everyone may enjoy it, but it looks like yet another year of Southlake Carroll dominance is going to be rounded out with a state title this Saturday.
Photo by Noe Longoria
2. Austin Vandegrift
Coming in a very respectable second and replicating the top two from last year's race is Austin Vandegrift. Put simply, if it weren't for Southlake Carroll, Vandegrift would be the heavy favorite to win the state title this Saturday.
However, by no means does that mean this team has had anything short of an incredible year as they've been as close to perfect as they could hope to be throughout much of the year. With Hudson Haley out in front, it remains to be seen just how close Vandegrift can make the race on Saturday.
Throughout the season, Vandegrift has continually shown us why they've become a perennial contender for the podium at the state meet. Over the course of the year, Vandegrift has won every meet except for the Southlake #1 XC Invite which was easily one of the most competitive meets of the year.
Outside of that meet, the Vipers have thrived, running as a team and continually executing races to perfection with a dense presence up front to go along with some strong depth rounding out the points. We most recently saw this at the UIL 2A-6A Region 4 Championship where Vandegrift breezed through to a seventy-nine-point win.
Star junior Hudson Haley has been phenomenal for the Vipers all year and has largely filled the void left by losing Kevin Sanchez. Throughout the season, Haley ran 15:06 at this best and notably won big meets such as the UIL 2A-6A Region 4 Championship and the 42nd Annual Woodbridge Cross Country Classic. In addition to Haley, Dylan Schieffelin has also been outstanding for Vandegrift, running 15:19 at his best and regularly following closely behind Haley to secure big points for Vandegrift.
Outside of the top two, Brayden Schick and Collin Goodwin have provided outstanding support for the Vipers, with the two of them running 15:37 and 15:38 respectively. Jackson Stafford rounds out the top-five in 15:44 while Jack Ebeier and Kai McCullough finish out the top seven in 15:51 and 15:54.
This Vandegrift team has had yet another outstanding year and will once again find themselves on the podium on Saturday.
While they'll likely be on the second step, look for them to potentially make things interesting as they match up fairly well with Southlake Carroll in terms of their depth. While it'll be another second place in all likelihood for the Vipers, never say never with this team as they could give us a more exciting team battle than we're expecting.
Photo by Gabriel Nieland
3. McKinney Boyd
Coming into the third and final spot on the podium in these predictions is the surprise team of the year in the form of McKinney Boyd.
For a team that started the season unranked, being predicted to finish on the podium at the state meet is not something that many people would've seen coming, however, when you take a look at McKinney Boyd's season and what they've been able to accomplish, their placement in this third spot makes a lot of sense.
Boyd has been led by an incredible duo in the form of Caleb Millard and Joaquin De La Cruz who are the catalyst for this team's success. At their best, Millard has run 15:16 while De La Cruz has run 15:08, however, while these are both incredibly fast times they still don't showcase their main strength which is consistency.
Throughout the season, both Millard and De La Cruz have consistently been at or under 15:20 while also consistently scoring in the top five. These two have given this team a chance to win in every race and they should continue to do so this weekend.
Outside of this fantastic duo, McKinney Boyd has also been supported by a strong cast of depth that has scored critical points all year. Luke Woodward has been key to Boyd's success this year as he's held down the number three spot, running 15:48 at his best. Next, Kamron Jeffery and Gavin Brown have been solid rounding out the top five in 16:09 and 16:15 respectively. While this cast of depth may not jump off the page as much as Southlake Carroll or Austin Vandegrift, they've done their job well and no meet demonstrates that more than the UIL 1A-6A Region 1 Championship.
At their regional meet, McKinney Boyd scored just eighty-six points and came away with second place by a fair margin of twenty-five points. Notably, Boyd wasn't terribly far off Southlake Carroll and put up one of the better races we've seen against the Dragons, especially over a large field. They averaged 15:51 on a difficult course and were less than a minute apart from each other, both notably important qualities that every team wants to have heading into the state meet.
Overall, while McKinney Boyd may not have been ranked going into the year, they'll surely be ranked to end it as the Broncos have had an incredible year which would only be even better with a third-place finish here. It'll be challenging, however, McKinney Boyd has been consistent in both the way they've run and the results they've produced all year and we can't bet against them now as they've proven more than deserving of this spot.
Predictions For Remaining Team Placements:
5. Bridgeland
8. Round Rock
9. Wylie
10. The Woodlands
11. Katy
12. The Woodlands College Park
14. Clear Lake
15. Deer Park
16. Austin Bowie