Moving on to individual predictions which were much harder to make, we quickly find that for the first time in what feels like forever, we don't have a clear decisive favorite heading into the state meet. This is largely thanks in part to the number of competitive meets we've had this year where it doesn't feel as though there's been a proper contender that's fully cemented themselves as the heavy favorite.
That being said, there are several runners who have turned in some consistently great performances and look to be more likely to finish on the podium than others. So, let's find out who these runners are and why they're predicted to finish where they are.
Region 2-6A Championships
Individual Predictions
1. Caden Leonard (Southlake Carroll)
Picking this Southlake Carroll Dragon to finish on the top step of the podium was a lot more difficult than picking the team itself to finish on the top step, however, when it comes down to it Caden Leonard looks like the best runner in Texas right now. Whether it be running for the best team in the state, or just sheer personal drive, Caden Leonard has quickly cemented himself as a force to be reckoned with in the state, as seen in the fact he's our predicted state champion as only a sophomore.
When you look at how Leonard's season has gone, this pick makes all the more sense as the question of when has he not performed well gets asked. The answer is that he's performed well in every race he's run and the stats show it. Over the course of six races this fall, Leonard has won four of them easily and the only meets he hasn't won were against some of the best competition in the nation. Throughout these race wins, Leonard has run 9:12 over 3200m, 14:16 over three miles, and 14:56 over 5000m. He's well rounded and the numbers show it.
The other aspect of what makes Leonard the predicted state champion is how he wins races. Leonard gets out hard and establishes himself at the front of the race and when he makes his move it's definitive. Take a look at the Nike South Invitational for example, he got out hard and took in the situation at the front of the pack and when he made his move, it was final and he eventually won the race by sixteen seconds. The same thing goes for his performance at Carroll's regional meet where he established himself at the front and won a tough race against great competition.
Put simply, Caden Leonard possesses the perfect blend of statistical performance and tactical awareness to win the state championship on Saturday. He's run well all year and how he wins races will suit him well on an Old Settlers Park course where getting out hard and making the right move at the right time will win you the race. Leonard has shown all year that he's ready to take this step and that's why he's the favorite to do so this Saturday.
2. Benjamin Montgomery (Bridgeland)
Coming into another position that was extremely hard to pick is junior Benjamin Montgomery from the newly crowned Region II champion Bridgeland Bears. Picking this spot was by no means easy, however, at this point in the year Montgomery feels like a dog that's ready to be let off his leash. This is largely because Bridgeland is different from most teams in the way that they prioritize running tough courses rather than fast ones throughout the year. Peaking at the right time has always been a key factor for Bridgeland's program and they look to have got it right this year which is why Montgomery's race this Saturday will get him on the podium.
Montgomery himself has had as good of a year as he could've hoped for as he's been nearly perfect this year, winning four out of six races this season. The key thing to note when looking at Montgomery's season is how he's remained so consistent despite running vastly different and very difficult courses. To put this into numbers, Montgomery has run in the 15:20s in two-thirds of his races this year despite running on more difficult courses than most. Another thing to factor into Montgomery's season is how much of his running he's had to do alone. Outside of the HOKA McNeil Invite, Montgomery has run by himself for most of the year without many people pushing him.
In terms of race tactics, Montgomery is very similar to Caden Leonard in that his race generally revolves around establishing himself at the front of the race and making a definitive move at the right time. Another aspect of Montgomery's game that we've yet to see this year is his ability to close at the end of the race. Montgomery possesses an ability to close that few have, for example, he closed his region winning 3200m in 58 seconds last spring. And while we haven't seen this yet from him this year, look for him to be quicker over the back half of the race in particular as he's likely gotten to focus more on developing speed and back-half intensity over the last several weeks.
In terms of his career, this feels like the right time for Montgomery to make the jump onto the podium and his performances in 2023 have backed that up. He's been consistent and fared well against the best competition in the state when he's faced it, not to mention he's the top returning 3200m runner in the state this spring. Look for him to add another accolade to his impressive career thus far and stand on the podium this Saturday.
3. Hudson Haley (Austin Vandegrift)
Coming into the final spot on the podium in these predictions is Austin Vandegrift junior Hudson Haley who rounds out a top three of regional meet winners. Haley has been critical to Austin Vandegrift's success this year as he's filled the shoes of Kevin Sanchez perfectly up to this point and quickly established himself as one of the state's top runners. Throughout the season, he's proven time and time again why he's the future of this great team and he will cement that more than he already has by finding himself on the podium this Saturday.
Haley's season couldn't have gone much better than it has as he's found himself crossing the line first in five of seven races this year, never finishing outside the top five over what's been a very competitive schedule. When looking at his races from a statistical perspective, he's run 15:06 over 5000m and 14:08 over three miles at his best, making him one of the top runners in the state in both categories. In addition to this, Haley is a very poised runner and showcases great maturity and patience in the way he runs despite regularly competing in some of the state's most competitive meets.
In terms of tactics, Haley's patience holds strong as he always ensures that he runs his own race regardless of the size or level of competition. This will serve him extremely well at the state meet this Saturday as running your own race is paramount to your success, especially in a race where everyone is so eager to get out as fast as possible. Look at Haley's race at the HOKA McNeil Invite for example, where he showcased strong pace over the second half of the race on the same course we'll see him on this Saturday. He ran his own race and was able to calmly and methodically hunt down a second-place finish over the final mile. Look for him to do the same this weekend as this strategy has served him well the entire year.
Similar to Montgomery, this feels like the perfect time for Hudson Haley to bring him a major accolade to cement himself as a proper top runner in Texas. He's showcased every necessary quality to do so throughout his career, especially this season. Look for him to be patient and move up the field over the back half of the race and find himself on the podium as a result.
Other Runners to Watch:
Aleksandr Acuna (Denton Braswell)
Aidan Torres (El Paso Eastwood)
Jude Alvarez (Southlake Carroll)
Joaquin De La Cruz (McKinney Boyd)
Matthew Montgomery (Katy Seven Lakes)