The article below was written by Granger Huntress, a MileSplit contributor. He is an avid Texas cross country and track and field fan and holds a Master's of Science degree in Data Analytics.
Over the past eight years, you could pencil in the top two individual boys from Region 1-5A to be at the top of the podium at the UIL State Meet. Since 2016, the winner of class 5A has been from that region.
Of course, there was the three-year reign of Graydon Morris, followed by the two-year reign of Walker St. John to account for five of those, but even for those other three years, Region 1 has reigned supreme.
Should we expect another winner out of the West again this year?
As Lee Corso says, 'not so fast my friend'!
This season, the dominant region may be Region 2-5A, paced by Anna's Bryce Denton or Region 3-5A, led by Friendswood's Aiden Fitzgerald. Either way, it appears the Region 1 dominance may be on the brink of ending at the state meet.
I'm not saying to sleep on the Region 1 quartet of Diego Romero (El Paso Americas), Miles Westbrook (El Paso), Abdirisak Saidgurhan (Amarillo Palo Duro) or John Alcantar (Abilene), but based on their times from the regional meet, there are definitely more contenders this year.
Also, please don't get on me about how everyone struggles in Lubbock. The top 6A guys did just fine. I am just saying there's evidence from previous years that points towards a possible change at the top.
Fitzgerald looked comfortable in his Region 3 victory, winning by almost 20 seconds. For the first two laps he was paired with Georgetown's Zachary Mangum, who suffered an injury about 500m from the finish and was unable to finish. He's also the highest-placed returning runner, finishing just off the podium in 11th last November.
Denton also had a relatively easy win in Region 2, outpacing runner-up Josh McCartney (Frisco Heritage) by almost 30 seconds.
In Region 4, Mission Sharyland's Nathan Salinas had a closer time, edging Charlie Houck (Boerne Champion), 15:52 to 15:56.
If recent history can teach us anything, it's that very few people outside the top-6 at Regionals have a big enough turnaround to make the podium at State. In fact, the last time that happened was in 2021, when Trey Leather (8th at Regionals), Wyatt Athley (7th) and Ayden Granados (11th) finished 4th, 6th and 8th, respectively.
That year was also the year an amazing seven runners from Region 1 stood on the podium.
If you expand that list from top-6 to top-10 and look back at the past three seasons, you can find some average time adjustments for how runners perform at State. Obviously there have been a few issues with course distances, but I made a few adjustments for the 2021 Region 1 course, which was supposedly just a bit over three miles and the 2022 Region 2 fiasco which was recognized as 5133 meters.
I am going to stop right here and state that as someone with a master's degree in Data Analytics, I know this isn't the best method, however, it is what my high school Calculus teacher called a 'quick and dirty' method to get some quick insight.
Based on regional times and adjustments, the predicted podium looks like this:
1 | Aiden Fitzgerald | Friendswood |
2 | Bryce Denton | Anna |
3 | Matthew Binkley | Montgomery |
4 | Amisadai Yanez | Texas City |
5 | Jaxon Asbill | Dayton |
6 | Elijah Merino | Humble Kingwood Park |
7 | Colby Huntress | Austin Anderson |
8 | Diego Romero | El Paso Americas |
9 | Nathan Salinas | Mission Sharyland |
10 | Miles Westbrook | El Paso |
I know this isn't likely to happen, but these ten athletes should definitely be on your radar.
The only thing I can predict is that if Round Rock doesn't get any rain before next Saturday (which now looks likely for plenty of rain) the course is going to be rock hard, dry and dusty by the time the 12th race of the weekend is run.