After another gripping and competitive season, the wait for the UIL State Championship is finally over, as the state's best teams will come together to fight for the championship on Friday. Due to the number of graduating seniors, we ventured into the unknown this season and have been rewarded with many competitive twists and turns. As has been the case for the last half-decade, Southlake Carroll returns to once again try and defend their state title. The Dragons have won every state title since 2019, marking the longest consecutive win streak for a single team and making them the winningest program in the 6A division's history. 

As was the case last year, the defending champions have looked strong despite losing some of their main contributors from the previous year's team. Caden Leonard has once again looked like the best runner in the country, but this year's team race looks just as close as last year's. We know Carroll is solid up front, but can their depth provide the needed points to secure another state title?

Bridgeland has developed into one of the state's top programs, and after an automatic NXN qualification, the Bears are contenders for the title. Lead man Griffen Saacke has been phenomenal, but can their depth offset the lethal 1-2 punch that Caden Leonard and Kai Gutierrez provide? 

Outside of the two main contenders, several teams have looked like viable contenders for the podium. Austin Vandegrift once again took home the Region IV title, while Keller has emerged as one of the state's top teams out of Region I. Teams like El Paso Eastwood and Waxahachie have also had great seasons in their necks of the woods, making the fight for the podium crowded.

Anything can happen at the state meet, and we've seen in previous years that the state championship results often look much different than they did on paper. Everything is up for grabs, so let's try our best to predict this year's podium finishers and see how the field shakes out in Round Rock. 

1. Southlake Carroll

One look at the historic state meet results may lead you to believe that picking Southlake Carroll to win the title every year is the easiest choice to make in this job. However, dedicated followers of our sport are aware that the competitive landscape has undergone significant changes over the last two years. The field for the state title has become so tight that picking the team whose won every state title since 2019 isn't as much of a formality. This was proven in 2024 when Austin Vandegrift missed out on the title by just four points, the closest margin the 6A division has seen in years. That being said, despite the rising competitiveness of the state's top division and the pressure of replacing top-flight talent every year, Carroll has once again proven that they remain the class of the field. 

As it has for his entire career, this Carroll team starts and ends with the success of Caden Leonard. Leonard is near unanimously regarded as the nation's top runner, and his back-to-back state title and podium finish at Nike Cross Nationals reinforce that assertion. He's won every cross-country race he's competed in within the state since 2023 and has remained dominant this year despite an altered racing schedule. His personal best currently sits at 14:29.00, and he's yet to come under serious threat this year, making his bid to repeat for the third consecutive season a confident prediction. 

With Leonard's success in mind, cross country is still a team sport, and Caden Leonard cannot and will not win the team title by himself. I said last year that the main thing working against Southlake Carroll was the lack of a consistently reliable wingman on Leonard's shoulder throughout the season. Well, the Dragons have found that this year in the form of sophomore star Kai Gutierrez. To provide statistical support to Gutierrez's importance, last year, the gap between Caden Leonard and Carroll's second runner was 28 seconds, while Gutierrez's emergence has brought that gap down to just 8 seconds. This number is what will likely win Carroll the title, as no other contending team has that tight of a split with two guys at the front who are this good. Furthermore, he's run 14:37.20 at his best this season at the UIL 6A - District 04 meet, giving him the state's third fastest time this season. 

While Carroll's 1-2 punch is what separates them from their competition and ultimately places them as the favorite, their depth has and will continue to play a key role in their success. Michael Fuller has provided a great stopgap between the Dragons' front runners and final scorers, running 14:48.20 at his best and finishing on average in the mid-teens of some competitive races.

Claudio Auns and Grant Norgart round out the scorers for Carroll on paper. Auns and Norgart have run 15:11.50 and 15:14.10, respectively, and this thin gap between them is going to be crucial to maintain if the Dragons hope to repeat. Another important guy to note is Jaxon Glenn, who sits at #6 for the team right now in 15:17.80. While outside of the scorers on paper, Glenn has been a regular contributor over the last two years and will either serve as a key displacer or a great substitution should someone have a bad day. 

To call Southlake Carroll a dynasty would be an understatement, as they've redefined what it means to be a dominant cross-country team. Throughout their reign, they've won state titles by a landslide and have been pushed to the brink and won by just four points. While they haven't appeared unbeatable like they have in past years, their 1-2 punch is what sets apart this year's team in place of the makeup of strong depth that won them the title last year. This title is by no means won, and the times on paper certainly aren't fully representative of this race's closeness, but I just can't bet against what Carroll has at the front with Leonard and Gutierrez on paper. We're in for another year where more than one team has a legitimate shot to win, but I'm backing Southlake Carroll as your 2025 state champion. 

2. Bridgeland 

I said earlier in the week in my regional takeaways that the race for the state title was a two-horse race. Well, Bridgeland is that second horse. Over the last five years, Bridgeland has transformed from an on-and-off state meet qualifier to one of the top teams in the state, a three-time regional champion, a state meet podium finisher, and an automatic NXN qualifier. The Bears have developed a penchant for developing top individual talent, and that has been passed down from Benjamin Montgomery to Griffen Saacke this season. Bridgeland brings the classic cross-country combination of an outstanding front-runner who can win races and a cast of depth that can seemingly finish right next to each other. The race for the state title is going to come down to a battle of styles, 1-2 punch vs. stacked depth, and Bridgeland will try to win it with the ladder. They aren't the favorite, but the Bears come into Round Rock with their best chance yet of taking the title. 

The question of how the Bears would recover from the loss of Benjamin Montgomery this year was a big one. Montgomery defined the Bears program in the 2023 & 2024 seasons, and replacing him was always going to be a tall task. Griffen Saacke joined the Bridgeland program last season after two great years at Katy Tompkins. While Saacke took some time to get adjusted, he emerged as a critical component of Bridgeland's team late in the year, finishing 22nd at the state meet and 9th at the NXR South Regional Championships to send the Bears to Portland. Saacke has built on those performances by evolving into one of the state's top runners this year, running 14:40.10 at his best and going undefeated in in-state competition. While the race for the individual title is more closed than the team one, Saacke's outstanding campaign puts him as one of the contenders for the individual title and a podium favorite. 

Moving past the number one runners is really where the difference in structure between Southlake Carroll and Bridgeland stands out. Where Carroll has Kai Gutierrez as a close second and then some separation, Bridgeland retains a pack of guys who all finish within mere seconds of each other. While the order changes, Layton Carlisle has been the prevailing man in the #2 spot for the Bears. Consistency has typified Carlisle's season as he's run 15:24.20 at his best this season. Something that signals good things for Bridgeland is that Carlisle's best performance of the season and arguably his career came last week at the UIL Region 2 Championship, where he finished on the podium in third. 

Bridgeland's pack of depth isn't defined by a set order, but rather a next man up mentality, where the order changes because they have so many guys so close to each other. On paper, Maddox McCallister holds down the third spot with a seasonal best of 15:25.20, which came at the Strake Jesuit Invitational. Although McCallister hasn't raced since the Woodbridge Classic, he's been one of the Bears' most reliable guys over the last year. He finished 25th at the UIL State Championship last year and 26th at NXR, which, if he can repeat those performances, the Bears will be in great shape. Junior Dean Rosales has also been a critical guy for Bridgeland. Rosales has run 15:27.00 this season and recently had the biggest results of his career, where he finished fourth at regionals last week. 

Senior Kyle Pawlak rounds out the top five for the Bears in 15:36.80, while Patricio Navarro serves as a great backup in sixth with a seasonal best of 15:42.30. What sets this Bears team apart is their structure. They have Griffen Saacke out front, who is almost guaranteed to finish in the top five on Friday and will likely finish on the podium and may even contend for the win. Outside of Saacke, only 2.8 seconds separate their second and fourth runner, with only 12 seconds separating their second runner from their fifth runner. The only statistical hole this team has is the gap between Saacke and their second runner, which generally averages around thirty seconds, which is a problem when you consider that Southlake Carroll is essentially built to exploit that gap. 

The battle between the state's top two teams is ultimately going to be about contrasting styles and which one proves to be more productive in a championship environment. What Carroll lacks in tight depth, Bridgeland has, and what Bridgeland lacks in a proper wingman for their front runner, Carroll has. This is what makes this state title so close and these places so difficult to pick, but Southlake Carroll wins out in my eyes because the impact of having two guys finishing in the top-five is just greater than having one guy finish in that range and the rest in the 20s and 30s. Both of these teams are built for victory and would likely cruise to it if the other didn't exist, but that's the beauty of competition. The Bears look set to find themselves on the podium for the second straight year, and may even stand atop it when it's all said and done. 

3. Keller

While there are several teams in contention for the final spot on the podium, as there always are, the team that's emerged through competitive consistency is Keller. Despite not even qualifying for the UIL State Championship a year ago, the Indians have emerged as one of the state's best teams through their sustained success across the state's most competitive meets on a near-weekly basis. They may not have the array of state title victories that Southlake Carroll has or the consecutive regional championships and NXN resume that Bridgeland does, but this year's Keller squad has proven that sustained talent development and consistent exposure to competition can breed big results and ultimately take a program into an echelon that it's never been before. 

Where Southlake Carroll has a defined 1-2 punch and Bridgeland is more depth centered outside of their lead man, Keller sits in between as a happy medium. They have a defined team leader statistically, but not to the degree that there's an amount of separation that hurts them. They're a complete team with a roster of guys who produce at a high level. The guy who's produced at the highest level this year is team leader Boston Bowcutt, who's improved from a solid low 15s guy to someone who's in contention for wins regularly. Bowcutt has run 14:49.10 at his best this season and recently finished fifth in the stacked UIL 1A-6A Region 1 Championship, a performance that catalyzed Keller's qualification and finish only 20 points behind the defending champions. Not only has Bowcutt produced at the front when it matters, but he also embodies a critical aspect of a top runner in that he's consistently reliable. He's finished in the top five in 2/3 of his races this season, and has only performed better as the stakes get higher, something that has clearly inspired confidence in Keller as a team, given their form as of late. 

Moving past Bowcutt's impact as the leader of the team, Anthony Abeyta has been a critical cog in the Keller machine this year. As the de facto number two man for the Indians, Abeyta has run 15:04.60 at his best this season and has averaged in the high 15:20s to low 15:30s across the competitive schedule that Keller undertook. As is always the case at the state meet, Abeyta's performance as the #2 guy will be critical for the Indians if they want to secure a spot on the podium in such a tight field. Based on how the field looks, a top twenty finish from Abeyta will likely be necessary, but given he finished sixth at the regional meet, I'd say he's in exactly the form he needs to be to make that happen. 

In terms of what you could describe as Keller's "depth" group, several guys have been critical for their success this year. Heath Shiflett and Austin Boto have nearly identical times on paper, with both guys running 15:12.30 and 15:12.50, respectively. Both have averaged in the mid-15:40s throughout much of the season, numbers that will keep them well in the fight for the podium if they can continue to produce at that level. Another thing that makes these guys crucial is maintaining their relatively tight split between themselves and Abeyta. If they can do that, they'll further solidify their ability to finish on the podium. 

Cade Swan rounds out the top five with a seasonal best of 15:27.50, while Ethan Wilson sits in the number six spot in 15:33.30. The proximity of these guys in relation to Keller's broader order is again important, as it allows them to pick up for one another if someone else has a bad day while minimizing the impact of said bad day. While this race hasn't necessarily come down to the difference in fifth runners between teams, the presence of a strong guy to round out your scoring is never underappreciated.

While Keller may not be in the fight for the win in the way that Southlake Carroll and Bridgeland are, they're a testament to the concept of persistence in cross country and how racing against the best can make you one of the best. The Indians have gone from missing out on the state meet entirely to being projected to finish on the podium within a year. The key for Keller in Round Rock will be to take the moment for what it is and run the same style of race with the same team structure that they've found success with all year. They had their best team performance of the season at the regional meet, finishing only 20 points behind the team that's projected to win the state title. If the Indians can keep their 38-second split where it is and maximize their performance at the front of the field with Bowcutt and Abeyta, they should be coming home with a trophy on Friday evening. 

Remaining Order Predictions:

4. Austin Vandegrift (1st in Region IV, 2nd Place at 2024 UIL State Championship)

5. El Paso Eastwood (3rd in Region I, 4th Place at 2024 UIL State Championship)

6. The Woodlands (4th in Region II, 5th Place at 2024 UIL State Championship)

7. El Paso Franklin (4th in Region I, DNQ for 2024 UIL State Championship)

8. College Park (2nd in Region II, 6th Place at 2024 UIL State Championship)

9. Waxahachie (3rd in Region II, 7th Place at 2024 UIL State Championship)

10. Katy Seven Lakes (1st in Region III, DNQ for 2024 UIL State Championship)

11. Katy (2nd in Region III, 15th Place at 2024 UIL State Championship)

12. Round Rock (3rd in Region IV, 10th Place at 2024 UIL State Championship)

13. Austin Bowie (2nd in Region IV, DNQ for 2024 UIL State Championship)

14. Katy Tompkins (3rd in Region III, 12th Place at 2024 UIL State Championship)

15. Schertz Clemens (4th in Region IV, DNQ for 2024 UIL State Championship)

16.  Humble Summer Creek (4th in Region III, 16th at 2024 UIL State Championship)