The athletes know it. The coaches absolutely know it. And the numbers make it obvious: This is the most dangerous, deepest, and potentially fastest boys' field NXR South has seen in recent years.

The storylines are gripping enough on their own: a three-time UIL 6A state champion defending his NXR crown, a wave of sub-15 threats from Texas, legitimate podium threats from Arkansas and Oklahoma, and one of the most intriguing dark horses the region has produced in years.

But the course change amplifies everything.

The Dale Watts Course, with its precise measurement, pristine footing, and long straightaways, rewards aerobic efficiency and punishes hesitation. Unlike the twist-heavy Bear Branch layout, Watts creates a rhythm race. It exposes weaknesses early. It allows the strongest to apply pressure and never let up.

And with more than 10 athletes registering season bests under 14:50, and another dozen hovering in the 15:00-15:10 range, the front pack may be as big as 20 deep through 3K.

This is not going to be a race of survival.

It's going to be a race of aggression.

THE FAVORITE: CADEN LEONARD - THE TEXAS STANDARD

Carroll High School - 14:29 SB | 14:19 PR | Three-time UIL 6A State Champion | 2024 NXR South Champion | NXN 3rd Place

There has not been a more reliable big-race performer in the region since Craig Lutz or Reed Brown.

Caden Leonard enters his senior year with the resume of a generational prep distance runner:

• 3 straight UIL 6A XC titles

• 2024 NXR South champion

• 2024 NXN bronze medalist

• 8:47 3200m PR

• 14:19 all-conditions 5K PR

Although short and sweet, his 2025 season has been clinical. No drama. No tactically chaotic races. Although maybe not from the lead in every race, Leonard has simply controlled every field he's faced.

His 14:29 at District 04, no doubt not one of the most difficult district meets in the country, he was smooth and untaxed. His 15:04 at Region 1-6A and his 14:42 at State both came after a conservative opening miles.

Leonard may not be the fastest on paper, but he's the one nobody in the South has beaten in November for three years.

And until someone does, the throne is his.

THE BIGGEST THREATS (LEGITIMATE CONTENDERS)

Noah Strohman - Holliday | 14:40 SB

Four-time UIL 4A champion. Four-year progression curve. 1:53 800m speed. 4:04 mile strength. Strohman's ceiling is enormous, and his comfort on fast courses is proven:

• 14:12 (3M) at Woodbridge

• 14:40 win at Southlake Invite

• 15:26 to dominate the 4A State Meet

Strohman's challenge? He hasn't beaten Leonard in head-to-head races yet. But Watts plays to his strengths more than any course on the schedule.

Ruel Newberry - Denton Guyer | 14:39 SB

Newberry might be the most underrated runner in the entire South Region.

Every major race in 2025:

• 14:39 - Coach T Champion

• 14:45 - Southlake Runner-up

• 15:00 - Nike South Champion

• 14:47 - District Champion

• 14:49 - 6A State Runner-up

Nobody outside Leonard has been more consistent from August to November.

When the field winds down to five men at Dale Watts, Newberry will be one of them. He is one of the strongest runners in the field, but just not the fastest. He'll need to exert his top-notch endurance at two miles the latest for a chance to win the Regional title. With a lot of speedy boys, Newberry can't allow it to come down to a sprint for an NXN qualifying position. Good thing for him: he can press the pace from far out.

Griffen Saacke - Bridgeland | 14:40 SB

Power. Consistency. A massive leap from 2024. Saacke has been unstoppable inside Texas. Saacke has turned into a leader and front-pack runner. Earlier this season, he dropped Dale-Watts' course record at the Texas A&M meet, where he used a steady kick and covered the final 100m the best for a 14:53, just one of his six sub-15-minute runs this season.

• 14:40 win at Strake Jesuit

• 14:53 win at the TAMU Invite

• 14:52 at UIL State (3rd place)

He's a true grinder, not flashy, not tactical, just brutally steady. If this race becomes a war of attrition in the third mile, Saacke will be one of the most dangerous men not named Leonard.

Kai Gutierrez - Carroll | 14:37 SB

One of the most important No. 2 runners in the South Region, however, he is nobody's second-fiddle. Gutierrez is the quiet backbone of Carroll's juggernaut, but he would be a No. 1 on almost any other team in the country. Gutierrez has been on the Leonard plan this year, having only competed in three races this season, but his current fitness level is legit.

Similar to Leonard, Gutierrez was introduced to Carroll XC before enrolling. His sister is a senior on the Carroll girls' squad, allowing him to have an inside track to the program, training, and culture.

His season:

• 14:37 SB

• 4th at UIL 6A State (14:56)

• 3rd at Region 1

If he rolls into Watts in peak form, Carroll may put two in the top five.

THE NON-TEXAS STATE THREATS

Jackson Free - Mountain Home, AR | 14:44 SB

Last year: 14th at NXR South. This year: an entirely different athlete.

• Chile Pepper Champion (14:44)

• Gans Creek 3rd (14:52)

• Arkansas State Champion

The Arkansas distance pipeline is real, and Free is the state's next best chance at an NXN qualifier following the Joseph Barriola, James American Horse, Matthew Shelly, and Owen Kelleys.

The Arkansas commit has raced in Texas before, and he isn't intimidated by big fields.

If you're looking for the guy who shocks people at 4K and refuses to fade, it's Free.

Dominic Matthias - Moore, OK | 14:47 SB

A legitimate top-five threat.

• Oklahoma 6A State Champion

• 14:47 at Chile Pepper (2nd overall)

• Course-adjusted consistency every week

Matthias isn't flashy, but his progression curve is steep, and his 1:53 800m speed makes him one of the hardest closers in the region.

If this race comes down to the final 300 meters, Matthias is beating almost everyone.

Brady Monahan - New Orleans Jesuit, LA I 15:11

Louisiana State Champion. Today, the LHSAA state meet went down and Monahan and his Jesuit crew appeared in control. I'm not certain, but it appeared they were tempoing a Sunday morning run.

• Louisiana 5A State Champion
• 14:51 (3-miles) 15:07 (5K)
• Ran 15:11 at Nike South on Dale-Watts course
• Consistent runner

I mentioned they would race at state just a couple of days prior to NXR South, but with the change to Monday, Louisiana runners will have additional rest and that could boost Monahan and Jesuit chances.

THE REAL DARK HORSE

Brian Burns - Bentonville, AR | 14:59 SB (but this is misleading)

This is the sleeper who will disrupt the front pack.

Burns has elite middle-distance credentials:

• 1:49 800m

• 3:47 1500m

• 4:02 mile

And yet, his XC numbers undersell him:

• 14:59 at Chile Pepper (3rd)

• 15:02 at Southlake (3rd)

• 15:31 at Arkansas State (win)

Bentonville's late-October training block traditionally spikes athlete performance. Burns is running his best races right now.

If the pace is hot by 3K, he goes with it. If the pace is slow, he wins the final 400.

He is a legitimate top-7 contender whose chart line is pointing straight up.

TACTICAL BREAKDOWN: HOW THE RACE WILL UNFOLD

Mile 1 - Controlled Chaos

The Dale Watts wide straightaway means:

• 20+ athletes under 4:40 at the mile

• No early bottlenecks

• Every major contender is safe and settled

Carroll will keep Leonard and Kai G. glued to the center lane. Teamwise, Bridgeland, Vandegrift, Bentonville, Canyon, Jesuit, and Deer Creek will follow. Other Arkansas and Oklahoma individual runners will tuck wider.

Mile 2 - The Real Sorting Begins

Dale Watts rewards rhythm. The pace naturally creeps from fast to faster, creating mental thoughts/questions, "are we really doing this?"

Expect the lead group to shrink from 20 to 10 by 3K.

The ten most likely survivors:

• Leonard

• Strohman

• Newberry

• Saacke

• Kai G.

• McCullough

• Free

• Matthias

• Burns

• or possibly Hummel (if they choose to go all-in)

  Monahan

  Darcey

  Esparza

  Connelly

  Monahan

Mile 3 - The Breakaway

Leonard historically makes his move between 3.2 and 3.8K.

Who covers it?

Strohman and Newberry will. Matthias has the wheels. Burns has the rawest finishing gear. Free has the toughness.

But if Leonard enters the final 800 with even a half-step lead?

It's over.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

This isn't just a strong NXR South.

This is the best and deepest individual field in several years, featuring:

• A national championship contender (Leonard)

• A NCAA-caliber pack of chasers (Strohman, Newberry, Saacke)

• Breakout stars from Arkansas and Oklahoma (Free, Matthias, Burns)

• A developing phenoms (Esparza and Hummel)

• Texas depth unlike anything we've ever seen

The only certainty?

Someone is running sub-15 and missing the top 10.

And at Dale Watts - a course built for speed, we will see a new course record; how fast will it be?