Region IV Predictions
1. Austin Vandegrift
It should be no surprise that Austin Vandegrift slide into the number one spot in our Region IV predictions as so far this year the Vipers have looked like the most realistic challenger to Southlake Carroll's dominance. Despite losing a two-time state champion, Vandegrift have one of their most complete teams in recent memory as they have the extremely rare combination of running very fast near one another. This team is a true state title contender so let's find out why.
Vandegrift are led by outstanding junior Hudson Haley who has quickly taken the reigns of this Vandegrift program and shown he's ready to lead one of the best teams in the state. Throughout the season, Haley has run around the 14:10 mark over three miles and right around the 15:10 mark for much of the year. However, Haley is followed and supported by an outstanding supporting cast including Dylan Schieffelin whose run 15:19, Brayden Schick whose run 15:37, Collin Goodwin whose run 15:38, and Jackson Stafford whose run 15:44.
Most recently at the UIL 6A-District 25 championship, Vandegrift nearly perfectly scored the meet which included #5 ranked Round Rock. The Vipers averaged 15:28 as a team with just a thirty-eight-second split, easily the second-best numbers in the state behind the reigning champions.
In terms of the battle for Region IV, it doesn't seem like Vandegrift will face much of one as they thoroughly beat their closest competitor at their district meet. However, this is still an important meet for Vandegrift as it'll give us our last look at them before they go head-to-head with the defending state champions. If Vandegrift can improve on their already impressive district performance, they could be in a position to upset the long-reigning state champions and take home the gold in a few weeks.
2. Round Rock
Coming comfortably into the number two spot are Round Rock who mark the second top-five ranked team projected to make it out of Region IV. Round Rock are a battle-tested team who've faced some of the state and nation's best competition week in and week out which has prepared them well for the championship season. Round Rock have been consistently fast and close together which makes them as dangerous a team as any on this stage
Round Rock have been led by outstanding senior Kebede Kerlin all year who at his best has dipped down into the 15:20s. While Kerlin has been impressive as Round Rock's top runner, their main strength comes from how fast and close together their depth has been able to run throughout the season. Their second and fifth runners are separated by just thirty seconds with their top five being rounded out in 16:05.
Most recently at the UIL 6A-District 25 championship, Round Rock didn't have their best race as they were beat out by Vandegrift for the district title relatively easily. However, this is by no means a knock on Round Rock as averaging 16:03 with a forty-three-second split in a "tough" race is something that a lot of teams would be lucky to have. Despite not having their ideal day, Round Rock still look to be in good form heading into the most important part of the season.
Heading into the Region IV championships, Round Rock look to have a qualifying spot about as secure as you could hope to have one as there isn't a real threat to knock them out. However, Round Rock has faced tough competition all year and will look to minimize the gap between themselves and Vandegrift. If they're able to do this, don't sleep on this team as one who could finish in the top five at the state meet and maybe even come close to the podium.
2023 Patriot Invitational
3. Austin Bowie
Sliding into the number three spot in our Region IV predictions is Austin Bowie who have had a quiet but solid season that should see them qualify out of the region. While the top two spots in the region are essentially as much of a sure thing as you could expect to see, the battle for the final two qualifying spots is much more of a mystery. However, Austin Bowie has shown an ability to run just as fast and far closer together than their competitors which earns them this spot on our list.
Austin Bowie are led by sophomore Griffin Hummel whose improvement has been the catalyst for the good season this team has had. After not breaking the 17:00 mark as a freshman, Hummel has improved down to his personal best of 15:54. However, Hummel isn't the only solid member of this team as he's supported by a talented cast of depth who possess the ability to run together and well enough to put them in the position we find them in today.
Most recently at the UIL 6A District 26 championship, Austin Bowie came out on top in an extremely tight battle that will likely also determine the final qualifying positions for this region. While Bowie were outdone on the individual front, they utilized a solid split and midfield presence to ultimately come away with the victory. Their victory was a textbook example of the importance of running together and how a tight split can easily decide tight races.
Heading into the Region IV championships, the key for Bowie will be to continue running as close together as possible as this has been what's separated them from the rest of the chasing pack. While they'll likely be fine if they do this, it'll be important that they don't fall too far back from the front of the race as a tight split can only take you so far. Overall, Austin Bowie look to be in a good position to qualify out of Region IV if they continue to perform as they have been.
4. Austin Lake Travis
Coming into what was perhaps the most difficult spot to decide in any of the regional predictions is Austin Lake Travis who are yet another team that's had a relatively unnoticed but solid year. This was truly a very difficult spot to pick however Lake Travis's faster team average and denser presence near the front of races are what earn them the final qualifying spot out of Region IV in these predictions.
Lake Travis are led by a talented duo in the form of seniors Ben Wright and Drew Campbell, both of whom have dipped into the mid to lows 15:00s this season. This duo has been the driving force that's kept this team in contention for state qualification all year and they'll have the keep performing at this rate to secure that spot. Lake Travis currently hold a 16:16 average which is solid, however, their 1:37 split will continue to cause problems for them and keep them out of qualifying position if they can't improve upon it.
Most recently at the UIL 6A District 26 championship, Lake Travis came out third in one of the tightest district races we've seen. They finished only thirteen points behind Austin Bowie and just a single point behind Austin Westlake. While this wasn't the ideal result, Lake Travis has shown an ability to run fast all year and if they can continue to do so, they'll be readily in the fight for this final spot.
Heading into the Region IV championships, the sole focus for the Lake Travis team will be to run as close together as possible as this will be the determining factor of whether or not they advance. Wright and Campbell have been outstanding all year however they can't qualify the team by themselves and will need support. All of the pieces are there for Lake Travis and they wouldn't be in this spot if they hadn't had a great year. If they run together they're in, however, if they don't their season will likely come to an end.
Other teams to watch: Austin Westlake, Edinburg Economedes, San Antonio Johnson