Predictions: 6A Girls Region Champions

Next Monday and Tuesday, the UIL Regional Championships take center stage as teams and individuals test both their fitness and their nerve in pursuit of berths to the 2025 state meet. In 6A, where depth is a weapon and margins are razor-thin, one surge, one mistimed move, or one breakthrough day can flip an entire scoreboard. We're setting the table for each girl's region, what matters, who matters, and where the race within the race will be won.

This season has delivered more of the same from the bluebloods: culture, continuity, and relentless depth have stretched the definition of "elite." But the quiet climbs are over. The under-the-radar phase has ended, every split, every gap, every finish place now weighs on the only scale that matters: qualifying for the UIL 6A state meet.

Across the four regions, expect contrasting paths to the same finish line.  With that, let's dive into our regional outlooks and individual title picks for the UIL 6A girls.

Region 1-6A is always a gauntlet, but this year's girls' race might be the fastest high-school showdown anywhere in Texas. You've got the No. 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 marks in the state in the same field, and seven more athletes who sit inside the 6A top-20. Translation: there's nowhere to hide on Mae Simmons' rolling paths. The early hardpack, the wind on the levee, and that sneaky rise into the finish punish anyone who misjudges pace. It's the kind of venue where experience matters, and that's why the target sits squarely on two-time defending regional and back-to-back state champion Macy Wingard of Denton Braswell.

Wingard has raced just three times this fall and has been razor-sharp every time: 16:30 to win District 5-6A, 17:03 runner-up at the Southlake Invite, and a 16:04 three-miler at Woodbridge. She knows exactly how Mae Simmons races: stay composed through the first kilometer, float the middle, then squeeze. Her resume proves she can do it from the front or from a pack, and her championship habits-surge control, hill rhythm, and last-kilometer composure-usually turn wild Region I chaos into something orderly.

That said, this field won't concede an inch. Coppell junior Maya Easterwood blasted a 16:42 at district and has looked like the one athlete capable of matching Wingard's mid-race tempo change. Flower Mound's Adeline Bennett (17:07 district) is the metronome you never want clamped to your shoulder; she won't give time back once she's rolling, and she's backed by a battalion of teammates (Liana Cluley-Garza, Keira Primer, McKayla Kohutek) who will drag the pace honestly from the gun. From District 4-6A, Northwest Nelson's Elena Sather (17:17) arrives with momentum nd race savvy, and Southlake Carroll's Luna Gutierrez (17:29) has leveled up this fall- her ability to close inside a fast pack makes her a podium factor.

Keller's Julia Graves (17:39) is another name you'll hear late; she's been steady against elite fields all season and runs particularly well on hillier profiles. Add in Nelson's Samantha Spicer and Talia Ramirez, both sub-18 at district, and you get the picture: the front group could be 10-deep through two miles, with separation coming only when Mae Simmons' rollers and wind force someone to blink. One runner who definitely should not be overlooked out of them all is Emily Orr (El Paso Franklin). The Texas Tech commit was fifth last year in this race in 2023, seventh in 2024, and placed 10th at state last year.

How does it play out? Expect a true championship cadence: quick but measured through the opening kilometer, a surge to thin the pack by halfway, and then a decisive grind from 3K to the final rise. Wingard's big-race muscle memory makes her the favorite, but Easterwood's ceiling, Bennett's discipline, and Sather's form give this race real upset energy. One thing feels certain: with this much speed on the line, Region I won't just send qualifiers to Round Rock-it'll set the tone for the entire state meet.

Region 2-6A might not have last year's champion in the field-she's in Austin now at UT, but the headliner is every bit as compelling: Cypress Woods senior Laney Barnes. After spending most of the last three years out of state, Barnes returned to Houston and instantly reset the season's scale. She's raced six 5Ks and the slowest is 17:31; the resume peaks with a 16:34 at the Alief XC Classic-one of the fastest marks ever recorded by a Texas high school girl. Add wins at the Texas A&M Invitational (17:27), the Region III Preview (17:21), the Seven Lakes Showcase (17:26), and a 17:14 stroll to the District 16 title, and her only "blemish" is a third at Nike South in 17:31, still elite on that course. She's shown she can front-run or roll mid-race surges, which matters on Region 2's open, wind-prone grass where rhythm and poise decide medals.

The most proven in-state threat is Bridgeland's Rowan Saacke, last year's regional runner-up, who parlayed that momentum into a spring 3200m state title. Saacke has been heating up again, sharpening from mid-September through October and looking more like the athlete who finished eighth at last year's 6A state meet. Her race craft, patient early, assertive from 3K to home, translates perfectly to a championship pack. Bridgeland's rise this fall has also come with a breakout leader in Hope Smith, who owns a 17:59 at A&M and just finished runner-up at District 16 in 18:12. Smith's ability to draft, cover moves, and still close hard gives Bridgeland two legitimate podium shots in the same race.

Don't sleep on the "new face, big pace" angle either. Wylie East's Evangeline Williams arrives from out of state with a sub-18 credential and the kind of turnover that sticks when the front of Region II goes honest. If this turns into a fast, strung-out race from the gun, the Californian, Williams is built to hang longer than most and make the last kilometer interesting. Beyond that trio, you'll see a cluster of low-18s contenders who can steal top-five slots if the leaders overplay the early pace.

It likely unfolds with Barnes, who has earned the right to dictate terms. If she turns it into a steady grind from 1K on, the chase becomes survival. If she keeps it cagey through two miles, Saacke and Smith are the most likely to capitalize in a late-lap squeeze, with Williams a danger if the wind keeps the field compact. Either way, expect Region 2 to send not just qualifiers to Round Rock, but at least two athletes who'll shape the state title conversation, starting with Barnes as the clear favorite and Saacke, Smith, and Williams forming the tightest band of challengers behind her.

Region 3-6A has plenty of star power, but the clearest path to the individual title runs through Houston Memorial's Sophie Peterson. The junior has stacked a complete body of work this fall: wins at Strake Jesuit (17:59) and the Spring Branch ISD Invite (17:48), a quality ninth at the deep Nike South field (18:08), and a composed District 17 victory (18:02). Paired with her breakout track season-2:10.59 for 800m and 4:53.85 for the mile-Peterson brings rare range and closing speed to a course that rewards patience early and conviction late. She was fifth at this meet a year ago in 18:35; the year-over-year step she's shown suggests she's ready to trade contention for control.

The chase pack is good enough to make it interesting. Katy Taylor's duo of Casey Scherpereel (17:56) and Missy Han (18:03) gives Region 3 a legitimate one-two counterpunch. Scherpereel's recent sub-18 signals she can live with a fast early tempo, while Han's steadiness keeps Taylor in the mix if the race gets tactical. Kingwood's rising sophomore Ella Narhi (18:04) has been fearless this season and tends to race "on the edge," the exact mindset that can turn a crowded front group inside-out over the final kilometer. Manvel's Jannie Cardenas (18:06) has answered every test so far, and Katy's Vienna Fish (18:09) owns the turnover to capitalize if the pace lulls.

Here is how it likely plays out: expect an honest but controlled first mile, a subtle squeeze through the second, and then a long, decisive drive home. In that scenario, Peterson's combination of rhythm running and last 800m pop makes her the favorite to separate late. The podium fight behind her is tight-Scherpereel and Han have the resume edge, Narhi brings the disruptor energy, and Cardenas/Fish lurk if any of the veterans misjudge the middle. Prediction: Peterson for the crown, with Taylor and Kingwood headliners battling for the next two steps on the box.

Caroline Krupa (Austin Vandegrift) enters Region 4-6A as the clear individual favorite, and her résumé reads like a checklist for winning big meets. She just claimed the District 25-6A title in 18:42, but her sharper signals came earlier: a 17:37 5K runner-up at the Coach T Marcus Invitational, one of Texas' deepest stages, and 18:03 at the Texas A&M Invitational on a long, honest layout that reliably runs "slow." Add in a 17:20 three-mile from Woodbridge in California (15th in a national-class field), and you get a picture of an athlete who can run fast on pancake-flat speedways and hold form when the course demands strength. That versatility matters at regionals, where the first mile can feel like a 1,600 and the last kilometer punishes anyone who misjudges pace.

Beyond times, Krupa's body of work shows race IQ: she's proven she can sit near the front through surges (Coach T), manage rhythm at strength courses (A&M), and still close with intent. That combination, plus the confidence of stacking quality performances across different venues, puts her a notch above the rest on paper.

The challengers are legit, though. Isabella Porter (San Antonio Johnson) was runner-up at last season's Region 4-6A Championships when she ran 18:25. With a 18:28 SB this season and a strong run at Hoka McNeil, look for Porter to be in the lead pack. District 26-6A champion Caroline Strong (Austin Westlake, 18:12 PR) has enough pop to make it a race late, and District 29-6A winner Kassia Kozarski (Cibolo Steele, 18:14 PR) has been trending up all fall. Expect both to key off Krupa's moves and try to keep the pack intact past two miles.

If the pace turns honest early, Krupa's 17:37 credential suggests she can break the field; if it gets tactical, her proven ability to change gears after sustained tempo still makes her the pick. Our call: Krupa controls the middle, turns the screw in the last mile, and wins the sprint to the line if she even needs one.