South Girls NXN Individual And Team Predictions

 High School

School - Frisco Reedy

Class - Junior -  Class of 2021

NXR South Finish - 2nd

Prediction - Stegmann is a champion. Partly in fact that she won this year's UIL 5A state championship, but that was only her first state title. What defines her as a champion is that she has performed as champions do over her short career. Other than her freshman cross country season, I can count on one hand how many times she hasn't finished in the top three in any race, no matter on the track or in cross. With Coach Watts' guidance, Stegmann trained, competed, and did what was necessary until she reached the top.

She wasn't able to win the NXR South race, but it wasn't without effort. Instead of settling for a qualifying position, Stegmann made a strong late push and competed for the win, but came up short by only a second. She is also a former soccer player and has the toughness and competitive intuition where she can compete at a high level. Her 17:47 NXR South performance translated into a 144 speed rating. Since NXN moved to the current course, 144 scores just outside of the top 15. I could see Stegmann finishing in the top 25 range at NXN. 

 High School

School - El Paso Franklin

Class - Junior - Class of 2021

NXR South Finish - 3rd

Prediction - Jess will put a bow on the end of a wonderful junior cross country season. In what has been a lights out career since she arrived in the UIL, Jess is showing she is making up for an un Jess-like 14th place finish at state as a sophomore. She has run all summer long on the USATF Junior Olympic circuit and has been rolling ever since this cross country season. A runner-up at this year's state meet and then third at NXR South in 17:54 takes Jess to Portland on a high note. She event turned in a 17:50 at Foot Locker South last weekend.

The question is how much does Jess have left in the tank? She has run six straight 5Ks in the last seven weeks including traveling across the state and nation. She has proven that she can run with the best of them at the highest level. Jess comes from both a mountain and desert like area. She is one Texas runner where their experience could transition well to the Texas atypical terrain and conditions at NXN. A 142 speed rating at Foot Locker South is an indication she is still in good shape. A top 30 finish will be a challenge to mix it up with the best for any runner, but is a likely spot for Jess.

 High School

School - Lucas Lovejoy

Class - Freshman - Class of 2023

NXR South Finish - 5th

Prediction - Morefield is a proven competitor. She was new to everyone at the beginning of the season, new to everyone outside of DFW until state and NXR South, and now she has a chance of put the entire country on notice. Finishing sixth at Marcus I, eighth at McNeil, and fifth at NXR South are the worst finishes of her season. Add her third place at state and that some big race experience for a freshman, but NXN is another level. Morefield will have to take another step up to be ready for what is to come next for her. She won't have her team with her and the entire process will be different to what she has come to know this year. However, we have seen young runners handle the NXN scene with grace before. Last year, Lauren Ping was 14th overall at NXN as an eighth grader and was 11th as a seventh grader. In 2017, two freshmen girls (Brooke Rauber and Anna Fenske) finished in the top 10. So, all it takes is a tough kid  to perform well at NXN and not fold under pressure and Morefield is one of those tough kids!

She has been in the low 18s all season long including mid 17s at Region 2 and State and a 137 speed rating from NXR South. The low 18s are a likely time range for Morefield. Coach Littlefield has challenged her talented freshman the entire way and she could possibly finish near the top 50 range. 

 High School

School - Humble Atascocita 

Class - Junior - Class of 2021

NXR South Finish - 6th

Prediction - Another member of the talented Class of 2021, Clover will make her first national championship appearance at this year's NXN. She will do it because of her 18:13 and sixth place at NXR South. Clover has been running extremely well all season long and seems to be picking up steam in the tougher races. She has gained national experience by racing and winning at Chile Pepper and then her 10th place finish at last weekend's Foot Locker South.

Competing in both regional meets with the travel to North Carolina, back home, and then out to Oregon in successive weekends will be the challenge for Clover to overcome. She will have the leadership of Coach Symons to navigate her through the process. Clover has speed ratings of 136 at NXR South and 143 at Foot Locker South. If she can stay in the vicinity of the 140s she could very well finish between 40th and 50th at NXN.

 High School

School - Leander Texas Home School

Class - Sophomore - Class of 2022

NXR South Finish - 7th 

Prediction - McBride, who is still trying to find her footing in the high school distance running scene received an at-large bid from the NXN committee. Her youth and inexperience has been a bit of a challenge and might be for what she will see this weekend. Then again, it might not be. Inexperience only refers to the amount of major and competitive cross country meets state wide. However, McBride has national experience in youth track and field and that could compare and translate to this weekend's race.

The deciding factor will be her racing and her strategy. McBride is an aggressive runner and runs from the front in every race she runs. There is already a girl who has that type of style named Katelyn Tuohy and if McBride challenges her early, it could be a long morning. Every girl in the race will be strong and carries a competition level and experience of their own. Many of the girls in this race will have more high level cross country racing experience than McBride. However, a strong race strategy where she can run and find a rhythm could speed see her maximize her speed and toughness. Then, this could possibly be a very good race for her. She ran 18:26 at NXR South (131 speed rating) for seventh place and has hovered around the low 18:20s for most of the season. McBride could easily be a top 50 racer this weekend.

 High School

School - Katy Cinco Ranch

Class - Junior - Class of 2021

NXR South Finish - 29th

Prediction - Nielson was able to revive her season with a race at NXR South after having to sit out the entire UIL championship season because of injury. After her 29th place finish, we learned that her fitness was drastically affected. She ran a 19:03, which is very pedestrian for her.

That was two weeks ago and since, she received an at-large bid from the NXN committee. With two weeks to continue preparation, it won't be until race time to see that we'll know how much fitness Nielson was able to regain. If she is in better shape, there is no doubt she'll be prepared to compete with Coach Mathis' leadership and the international experience that she has gained. A 100% healthy Heidi Nielson would be a contender for a top 10 finish this year. At NXN last year, She finished 26th overall with a 17:42. We will find out the type of race she has this weekend.

 High School