2021 UIL State Meet Preview And Predictions For 1A, 3A, 5A

William Grundy


Gabbie Love has been a major factor this cross country season going back to week 1

5A Girls

The UIL 5A race is perhaps the most elite race in the state in terms of speed. With eight girls who have run under 18 minutes this season the fastest four times in the state and six of the top 10, expect a barn burner.

Isabel Conde De Frankenberg (Cedar Park) is the defending UIL 5A state champion. The sophomore has fourth fastest 3 mile time (15:59) in the country this season and the second fastest 5K this season with her 17:07.60 from the Hoka One/McNeil Elite Invitational.

Cameron McConnell (Canyon Randall) is also accomplished in her own right. The Colorado transfer was second at last year's Colorado state meet and currently has the fastest time (17:06.80) in Texas and has won every race since arriving.

McKenzie Bailey (Georgetown) is ranked third in the state and is on a winning streak. While that may not be all that impressive at first, as several athletes are on winning streaks at this time of season. It is important to consider her district and regional rival is the defending champion, Frankenberg.

If that isn't to have you excited to watch this race, then consider this. Gabbie Love and Allie Love (Colleyville Heritage) are both ranked in the top 10. Gabbie is a fast starter and Allie is a hard finisher, the two training partners should compliment each other nicely and have peaked for this moment. 

Lovejoy also has a dangerous duo. Amy Morefield is a big race kind of girl. She has the No. 10 ranked time in the state and has wins over several of the girls on this list. She may even have more motivation following the regional meet where she was third overall, placing team aspirations ahead of her own. Her teammate Kailey Littlefield was second at Region 2-5A and can run with anyone. She is a sub 56/2:10 performer in the 400m/800m, so, if she sticks around, then her leg speed makes her dangerous in the last parts of a race.

The race for the state championship should also get very interesting. Lovejoy is having a fantastic 2021 season. They've been the most consistent team over the course of the year and are ranked nationally in the MileSplit50 at No.16.

The Region 1-5A team champions Canyon Randall has found their stride at just the right time of the year. They have a true low stick runner and two other runners under 19 minutes.

Colleyville Heritage has an advantage with two low stick runners in the Love sisters. Highland Park also has two sub 19 minute girls this year in Charlotte Hudson and Sara Cavey. Their key is running the Coach Bailey way, smart and tight as they have the best 1-5 split of any of the contenders. Midlothian, Grapevine, Amarillo, Wakeland, and of course Boerne Champion are still very good teams just to name a few. It's the state meet, so nobody there will be slow.

Predictions:


This is a hard one for all of the reasons state earlier. And more.

At the beginning of the season, I would have said Frankenberg would win, hands down, and she still very well could. She just about has wins over everybody in the state. 

Here is where it gets messy, Gabbie Love has great first race, the following week,  Morefield and McConnell beat her and the other 5A studs at Lovejoy, Frankenberg beats everyone she has faced including most of the 5A girls at McNeil, Bailey then beats Frankenberg at district and regionals.

That's why this will be a must see race and I'm guessing the undefeated McConnell will win the individual state championship just because everything is so confusing and she has won out making it the safest pick.

My sleepers for the race are Anastacia Gonzales (Boerne Champion) and Brighton Mooney (Frisco Independence). Both girls are aggressive runners and lack fear to make a big move. Gonzales knows how to win and Mooney got a taste by winning the Region 2-5A title and is just very confident right now.

I'm picking Lovejoy to win the team title. It will be close over Canyon Randall, Grapevine, Amarillo, and Highland Park, but they have been consistent and focused all year long.



Matthew Norton of Denton competes at the Southlake Carroll XC Inv.

5A Boys

This race will be a wild and crazy as the girls.

Walker St. John (Grapevine) is the defending champion, the Region 1-5A individual champion, and he has the third fastest time in the state. That should make him the prohibitive favorite.

Stranger things than him not winning have happened at previous state meets.

Drew McLaughlin and Wyatt Athey both of Denton are both certified runners. They can run with anyone and their ability to run in the low 15s is evidence of that.

Amarillo has a pair of talented stars of their own in seniors Isaac McGill and Miles Cox who are some of the state's top runners. McGill was second at the Region 1-5A championships behind St. John and was ninth at last year's state meet and went 14:50 in three miles at the Woodbridge Cross Country Classic.

St. John also doesn't have to go very far at all if he wants a challenge. His own Grapevine teammates Josue Granados, Alberto Rayon, and Trey Leathers are all capable of beating anyone and can pull of an upset.

Natnael Enright of Frisco Wakeland is the region 2-5A Champion and he finished eighth last year at state. He should definitely be considered and will be in the front pack. 

David Mora (Lubbock Monterey) should also be considered a threat in this race. As a sophomore last year, he finished third overall, and he is just now getting back to full strength and healthy. He was third last week at regionals behind St. John and McGill.

The Aledo duo of Isaac Hernandez and Bryceson Boss, Kevin Hernandez (Donna), Jace Poole (Leander), and Devon Judelson (The Colony) should also be front pack runners.

St. John and his Grapevine boys are also heavy favorites to with the state title again. They captured the title they've been searching for over the last six plus years and it looks like they just might be able to add another. Grapevine currently checks in as the No. 8 team in the MileSplit50 national rankings.

Denton was third last year at state and all season long has been figured as the team with the best ability to challenge Grapevine. 

Lovejoy, Amarillo, and the two Frisco schools Wakeland and Reedy all have what it takes to get on the podium.

Predictions:


Individually, I believe in all of the guys mentioned above, but based on consistency, I'm going with St. John. He has just been as even as possible and I'm not really sure if we've seen his best yet.

St John does have a tendency to sit and kick. His recent strategy of letting others lead the race and outkick them at the end has been pretty standard and no secret, which is dangerous; but he has yet to lose with that tactic. Coffee is for closers and the state track meet should be enough evidence of his closing abilities.

My individual race sleepers are Carter Gordy (Montgomery Lake Creek) and Ethan Feinstein (San Antonio Alamo Heights) are both region champions and could be looking to be upsets. Gordy had a very good track season that ended in Austin at the state meet last spring.

Grapevine is the best team in the state and should repeat as champions and Denton should be pretty safe in second this year. We already mentioned they have McLaughlin and Athey, but fellow senior Matthew Norton can also hang in there.

The third team spot is open and it'll be interesting to see who can secure it.

It should come down to Amarillo and Lovejoy. Amarillo has McGill who is an All-State runner and I expect Cox to be one as well. If they get two top 10 finishes that'll help them a lot. Noah Watt will be the deciding factor between Amarillo and Lovejoy.

Lovejoy has Tate Barr and Rohan Sharma who could both be front pack runners and Barr could finish in the top 10.

If Watt can run 16 low and close the gap and scoring with McGill and Cox, that'll give the Sandies the advantage over Lovejoy by winning the No. 3 man race as both team's four and five runner will pretty much cancel each other out scoring wise. If it comes down to the sixth runner, I think Lovejoy would win that route.

As of now, I'll pick Amarillo.