Texas Boys XC Team Rankings Week 7

Team Rankings

Texas Boys XC Team Rankings

Week 7

The state's top 10 boys cross country programs as of Oct. 19

No. 1

Carroll High School

No. 1 Carroll High School (Southlake, TX) Prev. No. 1 - No change

Analysis: Twenty-four points to 39. That was the result of the Carroll-Keller meeting that was expected all season, run Thursday at Bob Jones Park in an eight-team field. Kai Gutierrez (Jr.) won in 15:23.3. The more important number was 4.1 seconds, the gap back to teammate Claudio Auns (Sr.) in second. Evan O'Donnell, Jaxon Glenn, and Grant Norgart placed sixth, seventh, and eighth, meaning it was Carroll's depth that beat Keller, not its No. 1 runner. 

Take Gutierrez out and re-score the race, and Carroll still wins 28-34. Auns and the four runners behind him beat Keller's top five on their own, and Keller had its full lineup, including Boston Bowcutt. 

The district race also showed Carroll's limits. In a small field, Keller took third through fifth and split up Carroll's pack. Region I will have significantly more teams and five ranked ones, so Carroll's top five should be able to spread farther ahead. Gutierrez and the pack behind him have now won together at home and in California. Again, the Dragons stay No. 1 until someone beats them.

No. 2

El Paso Eastwood

No. 2 El Paso Eastwood (El Paso, TX) Prev. No. 2 - No change

Analysis: Last week we wondered whether Noah Loweree could get back near Noah Garcia, as he had in August. At the District 1-6A meet at Horizon Golf Course, Loweree (Sr.) finished just 2.6 seconds behind Garcia (Jr.), who won in 15:31.6. Ayden Betancourt (So.) and Jacob Lara (Jr.) took third and fourth, and Elias Alcocer (Sr.) placed sixth. Eastwood scored 16 points, 57 ahead of Pebble Hills.

The spread from first to fifth was 1:33.8, which looks bad until you see where the time went. Garcia and Loweree ran together, and so did Betancourt and Lara behind them. Alcocer finished 47 seconds behind Lara in a race Eastwood had already won, which doesn't say much about his form. The pairing at the front matters more. A team with two runners who can finish near the top of a big race is one of the hardest things to beat in Lubbock.

Eastwood and Carroll look very close right now. Eastwood has Garcia and Loweree up front, and Carroll seems to have a deeper and tighter top five. They haven't raced each other, so Carroll keeps No. 1 until Eastwood beats them head-to-head.

No. 3

Austin Vandegrift

No. 3 Austin Vandegrift (Austin, TX) Prev. No. 3 - No change

Analysis: Vandegrift ran its district meet on the state course at Old Settlers Park, and it was another strong race. Avinash Dewagan (So.) won in 15:29, 25 seconds ahead of Georgetown East View's Kingston Wilson. Devin Celkis, Anderson Mills, Ryan Lee, and Atticus Reyes took third through sixth, and the Vipers scored 19 points, 41 ahead of East View.

Carroll, Eastwood, and Vandegrift are clearly the top three teams in the state. Of the three, Vandegrift has been the most consistent. They won at Marcus, at the Nike South Invite, and now at district, and the 10th-place finish at Woodbridge is the only off day. The thing holding Vandegrift at No. 3 hasn't changed: the gap between Dewagan and everyone else. It was 29 seconds Thursday, smaller than the 51.6 at the Nike South. Carroll's second runner was four seconds behind Gutierrez, and Eastwood's was 2.6 seconds behind Garcia.

Region IV is Vandegrift's to lose, since they've beaten Round Rock twice this season. The comparison that matters more is at state. Vandegrift is good enough to finish on the podium. To finish higher than third, Celkis and Mills need to finish closer to Dewagan than they have so far.

No. 4

Keller

No. 4 Keller (Keller, TX) Prev. No. 5 - Up 1

Analysis: Keller lost to Carroll and still moved up. Its full lineup ran together at district: Austin Boto (Sr.) third in 15:30.5, Boston Bowcutt (Sr.) fourth, and Braden Anderson (Jr.) fifth, all within 6.5 seconds. Boto finished 7.2 seconds behind Gutierrez, and Keller's front three split up Carroll's pack. Cade Swan, who missed the previous two meets, came back and finished seventh for Keller.

The 15-point loss shows Keller belongs in the same conversation as Carroll. It also shows what Keller is missing. Keller's first three runners finished between Carroll's second and sixth. That's strong depth with nobody out in front. In a field the size of Woodbridge, the Nike South, or the state meet, Carroll, Eastwood, and Vandegrift each have a runner who can finish in the top five. Keller doesn't yet. Boto was 11th at McNeil, and Bowcutt's win at the Reunion Run came against a five-team field.

That's what will decide Keller's ceiling. With a 48.5-second spread and seven runners who can score, Keller should finish in Region I's top four, and they have a good shot at the podium at state. To finish higher than third, Boto or Bowcutt needs to be up with Gutierrez, Garcia, and Dewagan when the field gets big.

No. 5

Bridgeland

No. 5 Bridgeland (Cypress, TX) Prev. No. 4 - Down 1

Analysis: Bridgeland held out its top three runners, Dean Rosales, Patricio Navarro, and Ilyes Benguedda, at the District 23-6A meet in Tomball and won anyway. Mark Jeffrey (Sr.), who scored fourth for Bridgeland in Huntsville and ran sixth at Gans Creek, won the race in 15:18.2. Luke Willows (Jr.) was third, Braxton Ramirez (Jr.) fifth, and Angelo Mancini and Cale Huff eighth and ninth. Bridgeland scored 26 points, 42 ahead of Richmond Foster, with a 44.5-second spread.

The drop to No. 5 is about timing, not a step back. Keller ran its full lineup against the No. 1 team and stayed close. Bridgeland's best lineup hasn't raced since Gans Creek. Otherwise, the two teams look a lot alike: deep, close together, and good at the team score. 

Bridgeland should win Region II; they have won the previous three iterations, and that doesn't look like it will change this year. The bigger question is state. Without a top runner near the front, Bridgeland's realistic ceiling is third. A frontrunner who can get into the top 10 in Round Rock would raise it.

No. 6

Round Rock

No. 6 Round Rock (Round Rock, TX) Prev. No. 6 - No change

Analysis:

Four weeks off didn't slow Andrew Esparza down. In his first race since Sept. 18, the Round Rock senior won the District 25-6A title at Old Settlers Park in 15:21, 23 seconds ahead of Lake Travis's Lucas Kranz. With him back, Round Rock won the district by 32 points over Lake Travis and Cedar Ridge, in one of the deepest districts on this list.

Esparza's time is worth looking at closely. Vandegrift's Dewagan ran 15:29 on the same course the next day. Conditions weren't the same, and neither race was close at the front, but it's the most direct comparison between them so far. Along with Garcia, Gutierrez, Martin, and Denton Guyer's Ruel Newberry, Esparza looks like a contender for the individual state title.

Zachary Stevens (Jr.) was third, Leo Brasil and Devansh Garg were fifth and sixth, and Cameron Pav closed the scoring in 13th in 17:13, for a spread of 1:52. A few years ago that would have been a top-five lineup in the state. Now teams like Carroll, Flower Mound, and Aledo are putting their fifth runner within 30 seconds of the first. 

No. 7

Flower Mound

No. 7 Flower Mound (Flower Mound, TX) Prev. No. 8 - Up 1

Analysis: Second, third, fourth, seventh, and eighth. Flower Mound's season-long question was whether its tight pack could ever move up to the front of a race. At the District 5-6A meet at North Lakes Park in Denton, it did. Joshua Shemi (Sr.) and Damien Hicks (Sr.) both finished in 15:29 for second and third, Elliot Carrier (Sr.) was fourth, and Eric Cano and Owen Dunham were seventh and eighth. Flower Mound scored 24 points to Denton Guyer's 61.

The spread from first to fifth was 20 seconds, about the same as it has been all season. The difference is where the pack finished. In the past, Flower Mound's top runner finished 17th at Southlake, 27th at McNeil, and 79th at the Great American. This time the Jaguars' first scorer was second, and only Guyer's Ruel Newberry, who won in 14:40, finished ahead of them.

It was a district field, and Region I will be much harder. But no ranked Region I team has moved its whole pack up as much over the past month. If the pack runs at Lubbock as they did in Denton, the Jaguars should be on the line in Round Rock in November.

No. 8

Aledo

No. 8 Aledo (Aledo, TX) Prev. No. 10 - Up 2

Analysis: Aledo scored a perfect 15 at the District 3-6A meet in Fort Worth, and the gap behind its top runner finally closed. Tyler Connelly (Sr.) won in 15:38.5. Then Noah Lay, Thatcher Pettit, Reed Murray, and Andrew Walsh finished second through fifth, all within 4.3 seconds. Aledo's spread was 28.1 seconds, compared with 1:28 at Marcus and 1:41.4 at the Chile Pepper Festival.

District 3 is not Region I, and Aledo's teammates have to show they can stay this close to Connelly in a deeper field. But this is the strongest position the team has been in all year. With Connelly likely contending for an individual state spot no matter what, a lineup with a 30-second spread could finish in Region I's top four.

No. 9

The Woodlands

No. 9 The Woodlands (The Woodlands, TX) Prev. No. 7 - Down 2

Analysis: The Woodlands didn't lose any ground on their own. The teams around them improved or answered the questions they had. That's why the Highlanders dropped two spots after winning District 13-6A by 11 points over Woodlands College Park.

The race followed the same pattern as all season. Elton Martin (Sr.) won in 15:12.9, 33 seconds ahead of College Park's Ryan Beken, and then the gap opened. James Clary (So.) finished third, 54.8 seconds behind Martin. Bo Breed, Ethan Geiger, and William Bishop placed fifth, eighth, and 10th. The 1:12.4 spread was better than the 1:30 The Woodlands ran at the Nike South, but six of the other nine teams on this list ran spreads under 50 seconds at district, and Flower Mound and Carroll were close to 20.

Martin gives The Woodlands a chance at an individual title. The team's ceiling hasn't changed: a top runner, then a long gap, then the pack. They should get to state from Region II, likely finishing behind Bridgeland. Moving up from there depends on the gap between Martin and Clary shrinking a lot in three weeks.

No. 10

Houston Strake Jesuit

No. 10 Houston Strake Jesuit (Houston, TX) New

Analysis: Strake Jesuit has been just outside the top ten all season. They were fourth at the Nike South Invite, right behind Vandegrift, The Woodlands, and Round Rock, and they haven't gotten much attention because the teams ahead of them are the ones at the top of this list. On Oct. 7 at Sugar Land Memorial Park, the Crusaders took the top seven places at the District 21-6A meet. Andrew Bowring (Sr.) won in 15:40, Gabriel Rayos (Jr.) and Daniel Morales (Jr.) were second and third, and Enrique Ortiz (Sr.) and Jaxson Sprinkles (Jr.) tied in 16:12 for fourth and fifth.

Strake's numbers are as steady as its results. The top five averaged 15:54 at district with a 32-second spread, and the sixth and seventh runners finished within 15 seconds of the fifth. Bowring, Rayos, and Morales finished within six seconds of each other. Strake doesn't have one runner who stands out. They have a group that scores well.

Region III is generally considered the weakest of the four 6A regions, though it's usually a close race, and that helps Strake. The Crusaders don't have to get past five ranked teams like the Region I teams do. They need to run as they have been. If they do, they'll be at Old Settlers Park in three weeks.