Katy Tompkins boys try to find early race positioning at the 2023 Nike South Inv.
It's been yet another long and competitive year in the state of Texas as we've had the privilege of watching several incredible team and individual performances. This has rung especially true within Regions III and IV as we've seen many outstanding individual performances along with what are perhaps the two strongest challengers to the Southlake Carroll dominance that we've seen over the last five years.
As with every championship season, this one will be filled with triumph and surprise, making it very hard to predict as it normally is. However, we're gonna give it our best shot today and make some predictions on who the qualifiers will be out of the talent-rich gauntlets that are Region III and Region IV.
2023 Katy Seven Lakes XC Showcase
Region III Predictions
1. Katy Tompkins
Coming in as the projected winner of Region III are the perennially talented Katy Tompkins who've taken a step up this year to join the true upper echelon of the 6A division. Tompkins's main strength this season has been their consistency as they've been able to duplicate an efficiently successful race formula at nearly every race this year. Tompkins have consistently been able to run a strong trio at the front of every race with a solid fourth and fifth runner not too far behind, and it's worked wonders for them this year.
The key piece of this successful formula has been talented senior Parker Wood whose ran between 15:21 and 15:30 in every race this season and has been a truly consistent leader. Wood has been closely followed at the front of races by breakout sophomore Griffen Saacke and experienced senior Austin Garcia, both of whom have been in the low 15:30s at their best this season. Rounding out the top five for Tompkins are Mathias Pitzel and Diego Reyes who've been right around the 16:00 mark at their best this year to round out a tight Tompkins pack.
Most recently at the UIL 6A-District 19 meet, Tompkins turned in another solid performance, posting a team average of 15:57 although their split was a little bit wider than usual coming in at sixty-four-seconds. That being said, Tompkins has been able to demonstrate a consistent ability to maintain a strong pace as reflected by their team average so this slight movement regarding their split isn't much of a concern for them.
Overall, Tompkins has been able to maintain an impressive form throughout the season along with the #3 ranking in the state to go along with it. They've been the favorite to win Region III the entire year and there really isn't a realistic challenger to this. Tompkins should win the region going away and look for them to battle for a spot on the podium in Round Rock here in a few weeks.
2. Houston Stratford
Coming in at the number two spot are the underrated Houston Stratford who are a team that's quietly put together one of their better teams in recent memory. Stratford's main strength this year, put simply, is their ability to run fast as they currently possess one of the top average times in the region along with one of the better splits when compared to their competition. When you combine these two factors and consider the fact that several of the teams contending for these coveted qualification spots don't have the best splits, Stratford slides right into the second spot.
Stratford are led by the underrated and extremely well-rounded Benjamin Pearce who has been able to translate what was an incredibly solid track season into an even better cross-country season. At his best, Pearce has run 15:31, not to mention the fact he's consistently been under 15:45 in nearly every race this season. However, Pearce isn't the only solid piece on this talented team as Jona Morford and Daylan Rushing have also dipped under the 16:00 mark during the year to round out a strong trio for Stratford.
Stratford turned in a good performance at the UIL 6A-District 17 meet where they scored just thirty points and placed four runners inside the top seven and five inside the top twelve. They averaged 16:04 with a sixty-seven-second split which is right around where they've been at their best this year. For a team that's somewhat struggled with consistency, this performance is a good sign heading into their most important meet of the year.
While they do come in at the number two spot in our predictions, this is by no means set in stone as the battle for qualification out of this region will be incredibly tight. However, if Stratford can run fast like they have all year and keep or even improve their sixty-seven-second split, we should see them finally make the trip to Round Rock as a team.
3. Katy
Qualifying out of the third spot in our Region III predictions are the revamped Katy Tigers who've been the definition of underrated after having a solid year. Not only have the Tigers had a solid year, they've consistently improved as the season has gone on which puts them in a great position. Not only has this team run fast and improved, they've run together which gives them a huge edge over their competitors in a region where not many teams have a great split.
Katy are led by a talented trio in the form of David Kalwahali, Ryder Darcey, and Joshua Perez who've all been able to dip under the 16:00 mark this year. However, not only have they been able to dip under the 16:00 mark, they all run within ten seconds of each other making them extremely difficult to score points against. When you couple these three talented runners with a 16:03 team average at their best and a thirty-nine-second split, this team not only looks poised to qualify but maybe get as high up as second.
Most recently at the UIL 6A-District 19 meet, Katy gave Tompkins a closer battle than many would've expected as they finished only nineteen points behind the top three ranked Falcons. Couple this with the fact that one of their top runners had a less than ideal race, Katy look to be a team that's a lot better than many will give them credit for.
The key for Katy heading into the Region III championship will be to continue running together as that's a quality they have that not many other teams in this region have. Additionally, ensuring they remain poised at the start of the race as being able to run together over the back half of the race will help to maximize their success. Overall, Katy are yet another underrated Region III team who look poised to finally get over the hump and get to the state meet.
4. Clear Lake
Sliding into the number four spot in our Region III predictions are yet another underrated team in the form of Clear Lake. While the Falcons may be more known for the individual accomplishments of the impressive Sam Golla, the team itself has quietly put together a great season. Running fast has been the key for this team and that's a good trait to have is it looks like it will have them toeing the line in Round Rock in a few weeks.
As mentioned, Clear Lake are led by University of Missouri commit Sam Golla who parlayed a remarkable track season which saw him run 9:09 over 3200m into an impressive cross-country season. Golla has consistently been in the fight for wins and has been around the 15:35 mark for most of the year. However, Golla isn't the only one on this team whose found success as Anthony Robert and Zachary Madsen have been crucial to the the team's success, running right around the 16:00 mark at their best.
Most recently, Clear Lake ran away with the UIL 6A-District 24 meet, scoring just 23 points and averaging 15:56 as a team. This marked their best performance of the year and while they may not have faced the most competitive field of competition, they still showed they're ready to run fast.
The main point of concern for Clear Lake will undoubtedly be their 1:17 split which is big compared to their competition when fighting for qualification. This will undoubtedly be something Clear Lake will look to address and improve upon to minimize the chances of it harming them. However, despite this pain point, Clear Lake look to be in their best shape, and as a team that's run fast all year, they look poised to qualify out of Region III.
Other teams to watch: Katy Seven Lakes, Humble Summer Creek, Houston Strake Jesuit