Texas Girls XC Team Rankings Week 7

Team Rankings

Texas Girls XC Team Rankings

Week 7

The state's top 10 girls cross country programs as of Oct. 21

No. 1

Flower Mound

No. 1 Flower Mound (Flower Mound, TX) Prev. No. 3 - Up 2

Analysis: Six seconds. That was the gap between Flower Mound's top two runners at the District 5-6A meet at North Lakes Park, where Liana Cluley-Garza (Sr.) won in 17:32, and Adeline Bennett (Sr.) was second in 17:38. Earlier this season, the gap between Flower Mound's first and second runners was as large as 45 seconds. Bennett finished fourth at last year's 6A state meet, and this was the first time she has appeared in Flower Mound's lineup in any of this season's results we've tracked.

The rest of the lineup came together too. Jewel Barnes (Jr.) was seventh, Eliana Rivera (Sr.) ninth, and Megan Schmidt (Sr.) 10th. Allie Driscoll and Avery Cauble finished 11th and 14th as the sixth and seventh runners. Flower Mound scored 29 points, 35 ahead of Frisco Wakeland, with a spread of 1:06. That looked a lot like the team that won Southlake in September, and nothing like the one that finished ninth in North Carolina. They were fast, and they stayed together.

Flower Mound lost last year's 6A title to Bridgeland by just three points. With Bennett back and Cluley-Garza in form, this lineup can win it this year. If Flower Mound runs like this at region and state, they're the favorite. If they don't, the 6A state title race gets much closer.

No. 2

Dallas Highland Park

No. 2 Dallas Highland Park (Highland Park, TX) Prev. No. 1 - Down 1

Analysis: Highland Park didn't do anything to lose the No. 1 spot. After three weeks on top, the Scots won District 12-5A at Myers Park in McKinney by 26 points over Grapevine. Adelaide Wortman (So.) won in 18:23.1, and Ryan Sontag (Sr.) was 7.4 seconds behind her in second. They've finished close together all season. Flower Mound's race was just slightly more impressive.

Highland Park is still the 5A favorite, and Lovejoy is the most likely challenger. The two teams' district meets were run at the same park two days apart. Conditions and possibly the layout weren't identical, but the comparison is useful. HP's top two ran 18:23 and 18:30. Lovejoy's top runner, Emily Armstrong, ran 19:00. HP's five scorers averaged 19:10, compared with Lovejoy's 19:31. The difference is the fifth runner. HP's talented freshman Orsella Hooks finished 11th in 20:22.4, and the HP spread was 1:59. Lovejoy's fifth runner ran 19:46.1, and its spread was 46 seconds.

That's the matchup for the 5A title. Highland Park is faster up front, and Lovejoy runs closer together. Lovejoy won last year's 5A title, and HP finished fifth. Wortman and Sontag give Highland Park a lead that Lovejoy hasn't been able to match. The question in Round Rock is whether Lovejoy can make up that lead with its fourth and fifth runners.

No. 3

Keller

No. 3 Keller (Keller, TX) Prev. No. 7 - Up 4

Analysis: Keller has looked like a good team all season. After Thursday, it's a state contender. In a 52-runner field at Bob Jones Park, Keller beat Carroll 47-50. The race was won between Carroll's first and second runners. Abigail Perez (Sr.) won for Carroll in 18:02.2. But Keller put three runners (Sarah Darnell (Jr.) in second (18:11.7), Julia Graves (Jr.) in third (18:16.9), and freshman Emma Gibson in seventh (18:30.0)) in before Carroll's second finisher, Grace McIlvain (Sr.), who finished eighth.

Katherine Wander (So.) and Yumi DeSaram (Sr.) finished 16th and 19th, and Keller's spread was 1:11.4, compared with Carroll's 1:14.2. The teams were nearly even through the back of the scoring. Keller's top three made the difference. Darnell and Gibson have gotten faster every week, and Darnell was 9.5 seconds behind Perez.

There's a caveat. It was a small field, and in a race this close, a few places either way could have flipped the result. But Keller beat Carroll head-to-head. Next Monday in Lubbock, Keller will race Flower Mound, Carroll, and Nelson again, with all of them needing a top-four finish to reach state.

No. 4

The Woodlands

No. 4 The Woodlands (The Woodlands, TX) Prev. No. 4 - No change

Analysis: The Woodlands have been in the top four for most of a month, and consistency is the main reason. Naomi Weller (Sr.) has led the team all season, and she won District 13-6A at College Park in 18:42.2. The Highlanders scored 20 points and beat Woodlands College Park by 48.

The key number is the gap between Weller and the second Woodlands runner. At the Nike South, her best race of the season, freshman Emma Harder finished 46 seconds behind her. At district, the gap was 17 seconds, with Emily Kacher (Jr.) in second. Harder was fourth, Marta Linde (So.) sixth, and Leah Griffin (Sr.) seventh. The spread from first to fifth was 39.5 seconds.

The question for The Woodlands is which team shows up. With a 39-second spread, they can contend for the title. The Woodlands will need the district version of their lineup if they want to keep pace in consideration with the teams above them.

No. 5

Lucas Lovejoy

No. 5 Lucas Lovejoy (Lucas, TX) Prev. No. 5 - No change

Analysis: Lovejoy enters November as the defending 5A state champion. Their 63-point win in Round Rock last year is the reason they're still taken seriously, even after a season of chasing Highland Park. The Leopards won District 9-5A at Myers Park on Oct. 13 with 23 points, 19 ahead of Melissa.

Emily Armstrong (So.) won in 19:00.0, and Leila Thomas (Jr.) was second in 19:28.3. Then came the part Lovejoy is known for. Talia Orshalick (Sr.), Lily Stabile (So.), and Lily Fogle (Sr.) finished fifth, seventh, and eighth, within 7.6 seconds of each other. The overall spread was 46.1 seconds. Freshman Bronwyn Vaughan, who scored third at the Byron Nelson Last Minute meet, was the sixth runner this time. She gives Lovejoy a strong seventh-runner option most teams don't have.

Lovejoy's season comes down to experience and depth against Highland Park's speed up front. Lovejoy's top runner ran 19:00, while HP's top two ran under 18:31 on the same course two days later. Lovejoy has never been about one front-runner, though. Last year's title came from a pack, with no Leopard finishing higher than eighth. If the pack runs together and the late-season improvement continues, Lovejoy can win a second straight title.

No. 6

Bridgeland

No. 6 Bridgeland (Cypress, TX)

Analysis: The defending 6A champions won District 23-6A in Tomball without Hope Smith. Abigail Seale (Sr.) and Brynlee Weston (Sr.) finished second and third in 17:51.1 and 18:01.5, behind Cy Ranch freshman Renee Warren. (Bridgeland's 20 points beat Cy Ranch by 63.)

This lineup isn't as deep as last year's title team, which had five runners between fifth and 27th at state. Smith, who was sixth individually last year, is the reason Bridgeland is still in the title conversation. Behind Seale and Weston, Kate Garrison (Sr.), freshman Zoe Jaswani, and freshman Lorna Paul finished fourth through sixth. The spread was 1:23.8 even without Smith up front. 

With Smith, Seale, and Weston, Bridgeland's top three can compete with anyone's, including Flower Mound's. The third through fifth runners will decide whether they have a chance to repeat. Bridgeland should still be favored in Region II, but to win in Round Rock, it'll take a slightly tighter pack.

No. 7

Carroll High School

No. 7 Carroll High School (Southlake, TX) Prev. No. 2 - Down 5

Analysis: Dropping five spots after a three-point loss may seem harsh. But the top of the 6A field is that close right now, and Carroll lost to a team that had been ranked behind them all season. On Thursday, Perez won the race in 18:02.2; Keller's top three finished between her and McIlvain, and the Dragons lost 47-50.

Behind Perez, McIlvain and Megan Bergman (Sr.) finished eighth and ninth, 1.9 seconds apart. Landry Lambert (Sr.) was 15th and Kameron Dukes (Jr.) 17th, for a spread of 1:14.2. That's almost the same as Carroll's 1:12.3 at the Chile Pepper Festival. The difference was where they finished. In Arkansas, Carroll placed third out of 49 teams. In a 52-runner district race, it lost a close one.

There's a clear question to answer before Lubbock. If the district version of Carroll shows up, it probably tops out around third. If the Chile Pepper version shows up, with Perez in front and the pack finishing high in a big field, Carroll can win the title. 

No. 8

Austin Vandegrift

No. 8 Austin Vandegrift (Austin, TX) Prev. No. 9 - Up 1

Analysis: Vandegrift ran its district meet on the state course without Caroline Krupa, who was second at the Nike South, and still won comfortably. Freshman Joy Vladimirov won the District 24-6A race at Old Settlers Park in 19:05, and Kenley Fedor (So.) was second, 16 seconds behind. Olivia Mason (Sr.), Morgan Nguyen (Jr.), and Mary Troska (So.) finished fifth, eighth, and 13th. Vandegrift scored 29 points, 39 ahead of Georgetown East View.

The bigger story is the depth that showed up without Krupa. All season, Vladimirov has been the clear No. 2 runner, and the sophomore pack has finished well behind her. With Krupa out, Vladimirov won, Fedor was right behind her, and the team still won by a wide margin. Seven Vandegrift runners finished in the top 17. 

Vandegrift moves up one spot. With Krupa back, Vandegrift's top three would be Krupa, Vladimirov, and a Fedor who is running much closer to the front than she did at the Nike South, where she was 48th. Vandegrift was 12th at state last year. Based on what it has shown this season, it should be much higher this time if Krupa is back for regionals.

No. 9

New Braunfels High School

No. 9 New Braunfels High School (New Braunfels, TX) New

Analysis: New Braunfels' top three at the District 25-5A meet in Seguin went 1-2-3. Senior Savanah Moya won in 17:53.6, and freshmen Halle Bryant (18:05.3) and Tessa Shamblin (18:07.3) were second and third. Those three have led New Braunfels all season. Moya and Bryant finished second and fifth at the Seguin Matador on the same course in September, and the two freshmen have both broken 18:10.

The result matters because of who New Braunfels beat. Smithson Valley finished second at last year's 5A state meet, and New Braunfels beat them 21-34. Smithson Valley's top runner, Aubrey Pozzi, finished fourth, behind all three New Braunfels leaders. Sydney Wantuck (Jr.) and Raeleigh Hudnall (Sr.) placed seventh and eighth, two seconds apart. The spread was 1:06.4, about 27 seconds tighter than at the Lovejoy Fall Festival in September.

New Braunfels dropped out of the rankings after losing to San Antonio Churchill at Seguin Matador. They're back because they beat the best 5A team in their district. In 5A, Highland Park and Lovejoy are still the favorites. But a team with three runners at 18:07 or faster is a real podium threat in Round Rock, especially if Wantuck and Hudnall can close some of the 50-second gap behind Shamblin.

No. 10

Northwest Nelson

No. 10 Northwest Nelson (Trophy Club, TX) Prev. No. 8 - Down 2

Analysis: Nelson needed a top-three finish at District 4-6A to get to Lubbock, and it got one. Nelson finished third with 73 points, behind Keller and Carroll, and 28 ahead of fourth-place Northwest. Elena Sather (Sr.) was sixth in 18:28.1. Freshman Cheryl Bor was 11th, Madison Benton (So.) 13th, Audrey Pavlicek (Jr.) 18th, and Talia Ramirez (Sr.) 25th.

Nelson has been close to good teams all year, losing to Lovejoy by two and tying Lovejoy at Southlake. It still hasn't beaten a ranked team, and two of the teams it would need to beat in Region I just finished ahead of it.

Region I is where that becomes a problem. Flower Mound, Keller, Carroll, and Nelson are competing for four state spots, along with El Paso Eastwood, which was in the top ten a week ago. Nelson finished sixth at state last year, so it knows how to get there.