South Girls NXN Individual And Team Predictions

2019 NXN Girls Qualifier Predictions and Bios

Brynn Brown

School - Denton Guyer

Class - Junior - Class of 2021

NXR Finish -  1st

Prediction - Brown was able to go 17:46 at NXR South for her first national regional title. During the season, that looked like a forgone conclusion, but an untimely injury made things a little murky. It also made her win a little surprising that she was able to sustain enough fitness through cross training and other non running avenues to win a race of that level. While 17:40s isn't super fast, to run sub 18 minutes on the Bear Branch Park course is an indicator of Brown's fitness. She took control of the race and ran her aggressive and front running type of style, but she didn't pull away and dominate like we've seen her do. The field was still in contact and runner-up Colleen Stegmann was able to reel her in with an aggressive push at the end until Brown out sprinted her in the last couple of meters.

The determining factor as to how she'll do at NXN will come down to how much work has Brown been able to put in over the last two weeks to regain some fitness. She will not have the 16:12 fitness she had months ago and no doubt she will not enter the weekend as planned, but Brown is very good and she is a feisty competitor. She has the 10th best speed rating (157.0) in the nation from way back on September 14th. It's relatively likely a 5:42 (144 speed rating) average two weeks ago at NXR South is something she can reproduce. Although she will have more time and preparation, the course and conditions will be vastly different, but Coach Ponsonby's direction could at least equal similar pacing. That could put Brown in a finish between 20-25. As a former highly competitive soccer player, we could potentially see her call on an innate competitive spirit and possibly even run to a top 10 finish.

Personal Records High School
800 Meter Run2:19.61
1600 Meter Run4:48.37
One Mile Run4:53.97
3200 Meter Run10:09.91
Two Mile Run9:57.54
5000 Meter Run16:25.47
Three Mile Run16:51.91
5000 Meter Run16:12.00

Colleen Stegmann

School - Frisco Reedy

Class - Junior -  Class of 2021

NXR South Finish - 2nd

Prediction - Stegmann is a champion. Partly in fact that she won this year's UIL 5A state championship, but that was only her first state title. What defines her as a champion is that she has performed as champions do over her short career. Other than her freshman cross country season, I can count on one hand how many times she hasn't finished in the top three in any race, no matter on the track or in cross. With Coach Watts' guidance, Stegmann trained, competed, and did what was necessary until she reached the top.

She wasn't able to win the NXR South race, but it wasn't without effort. Instead of settling for a qualifying position, Stegmann made a strong late push and competed for the win, but came up short by only a second. She is also a former soccer player and has the toughness and competitive intuition where she can compete at a high level. Her 17:47 NXR South performance translated into a 144 speed rating. Since NXN moved to the current course, 144 scores just outside of the top 15. I could see Stegmann finishing in the top 25 range at NXN. 

Personal Records High School
800 Meter Run2:14.22
1600 Meter Run4:55.75
3200 Meter Run10:30.42
5000 Meter Run16:50.09
Three Mile Run17:48.67
5000 Meter Run17:02.27

Eva Jess

School - El Paso Franklin

Class - Junior - Class of 2021

NXR South Finish - 3rd

Prediction - Jess will put a bow on the end of a wonderful junior cross country season. In what has been a lights out career since she arrived in the UIL, Jess is showing she is making up for an un Jess-like 14th place finish at state as a sophomore. She has run all summer long on the USATF Junior Olympic circuit and has been rolling ever since this cross country season. A runner-up at this year's state meet and then third at NXR South in 17:54 takes Jess to Portland on a high note. She event turned in a 17:50 at Foot Locker South last weekend.

The question is how much does Jess have left in the tank? She has run six straight 5Ks in the last seven weeks including traveling across the state and nation. She has proven that she can run with the best of them at the highest level. Jess comes from both a mountain and desert like area. She is one Texas runner where their experience could transition well to the Texas atypical terrain and conditions at NXN. A 142 speed rating at Foot Locker South is an indication she is still in good shape. A top 30 finish will be a challenge to mix it up with the best for any runner, but is a likely spot for Jess.

Personal Records High School
800 Meter Run2:22.78
1500 Meter Run4:39.75
1600 Meter Run5:05.16
One Mile Run5:10.04
3000 Meter Run10:07.88
3200 Meter Run10:50.32
Two Mile Run10:52.72
5000 Meter Run17:13.94
1600 Meter Run5:17.95
One Mile Run5:12.66
3200 Meter Run11:14.83
Two Mile Run11:21.84
2.x Mile Run (CC Short Course)17:42.46
3.x Mile Run17:58.40
Three Mile Run16:56.80
5000 Meter Run17:12.18

Amy Morefield

School - Lucas Lovejoy

Class - Freshman - Class of 2023

NXR South Finish - 5th

Prediction - Morefield is a proven competitor. She was new to everyone at the beginning of the season, new to everyone outside of DFW until state and NXR South, and now she has a chance of put the entire country on notice. Finishing sixth at Marcus I, eighth at McNeil, and fifth at NXR South are the worst finishes of her season. Add her third place at state and that some big race experience for a freshman, but NXN is another level. Morefield will have to take another step up to be ready for what is to come next for her. She won't have her team with her and the entire process will be different to what she has come to know this year. However, we have seen young runners handle the NXN scene with grace before. Last year, Lauren Ping was 14th overall at NXN as an eighth grader and was 11th as a seventh grader. In 2017, two freshmen girls (Brooke Rauber and Anna Fenske) finished in the top 10. So, all it takes is a tough kid  to perform well at NXN and not fold under pressure and Morefield is one of those tough kids!

She has been in the low 18s all season long including mid 17s at Region 2 and State and a 137 speed rating from NXR South. The low 18s are a likely time range for Morefield. Coach Littlefield has challenged her talented freshman the entire way and she could possibly finish near the top 50 range. 

Personal Records High School
Three Mile Run17:26.09
5000 Meter Run17:29.90

Avery Clover

School - Humble Atascocita 

Class - Junior - Class of 2021

NXR South Finish - 6th

Prediction - Another member of the talented Class of 2021, Clover will make her first national championship appearance at this year's NXN. She will do it because of her 18:13 and sixth place at NXR South. Clover has been running extremely well all season long and seems to be picking up steam in the tougher races. She has gained national experience by racing and winning at Chile Pepper and then her 10th place finish at last weekend's Foot Locker South.

Competing in both regional meets with the travel to North Carolina, back home, and then out to Oregon in successive weekends will be the challenge for Clover to overcome. She will have the leadership of Coach Symons to navigate her through the process. Clover has speed ratings of 136 at NXR South and 143 at Foot Locker South. If she can stay in the vicinity of the 140s she could very well finish between 40th and 50th at NXN.

Personal Records High School

800 Meter Run2:33.63
1500 Meter Run4:51.07
1600 Meter Run5:06.77
3000 Meter Run10:04.44
3200 Meter Run10:47.47
Two Mile Run11:13.46
4000 Meter Run14:09.43
Three Mile Run18:18.66
5000 Meter Run17:31.00

Krianne McBride

School - Leander Texas Home School

Class - Sophomore - Class of 2022

NXR South Finish - 7th 

Prediction - McBride, who is still trying to find her footing in the high school distance running scene received an at-large bid from the NXN committee. Her youth and inexperience has been a bit of a challenge and might be for what she will see this weekend. Then again, it might not be. Inexperience only refers to the amount of major and competitive cross country meets state wide. However, McBride has national experience in youth track and field and that could compare and translate to this weekend's race.

The deciding factor will be her racing and her strategy. McBride is an aggressive runner and runs from the front in every race she runs. There is already a girl who has that type of style named Katelyn Tuohy and if McBride challenges her early, it could be a long morning. Every girl in the race will be strong and carries a competition level and experience of their own. Many of the girls in this race will have more high level cross country racing experience than McBride. However, a strong race strategy where she can run and find a rhythm could speed see her maximize her speed and toughness. Then, this could possibly be a very good race for her. She ran 18:26 at NXR South (131 speed rating) for seventh place and has hovered around the low 18:20s for most of the season. McBride could easily be a top 50 racer this weekend.

Personal Records High School
400 Meter Dash1:01.01
One Mile Run5:18.73
3000 Meter Run10:27.08
3200 Meter Run11:41.14
Two Mile Run11:25.90
800 Meter Run2:12.99
1500 Meter Run4:44.32
1600 Meter Run5:04.11
3000 Meter Run11:51.74
3200 Meter Run10:54.17
3200 Meter Run11:19.40
Three Mile Run18:14.90
5000 Meter Run17:57.64

Heidi Nielson

School - Katy Cinco Ranch

Class - Junior - Class of 2021

NXR South Finish - 29th

Prediction - Nielson was able to revive her season with a race at NXR South after having to sit out the entire UIL championship season because of injury. After her 29th place finish, we learned that her fitness was drastically affected. She ran a 19:03, which is very pedestrian for her.

That was two weeks ago and since, she received an at-large bid from the NXN committee. With two weeks to continue preparation, it won't be until race time to see that we'll know how much fitness Nielson was able to regain. If she is in better shape, there is no doubt she'll be prepared to compete with Coach Mathis' leadership and the international experience that she has gained. A 100% healthy Heidi Nielson would be a contender for a top 10 finish this year. At NXN last year, She finished 26th overall with a 17:42. We will find out the type of race she has this weekend.

Personal Records High School
800 Meter Run2:17.23
1500 Meter Run4:33.08
1600 Meter Run4:48.71
One Mile Run4:46.31
3000 Meter Run9:46.71
3200 Meter Run10:27.26
Two Mile Run11:07.90
5000 Meter Run16:54.02
Two Mile Run11:23.80
4000 Meter Run13:55.25
Three Mile Run18:36.21
5000 Meter Run16:55.56
6,000 Meter Run21:31.00