Texas Boys XC Team Rankings Week 9

No one raced last weekend, so the rankings stay the same heading into Friday's 6A state meet. The boys race starts at 8:45 a.m. at Old Settlers Park in Round Rock. This edition doesn't recap one more weekend. Instead, it looks back over everything we've written this season, from the preseason rankings through regionals, and predicts where each team will finish.

A few things guided the predictions. Head-to-head results come first. They're the clearest evidence we have, and this season produced several of them. Regional results come next, because they're the most recent and the most similar to the state meet: championship fields, full lineups, and a reason to run all-out. After that, we looked at the trends we've followed all fall, like whether a team's second runner has been closing on its first, and whether a tight pack can hold up near the front of a big field. A few teams also have an advantage from having already raced at Old Settlers Park this season.

The individual race is just as open. Denton Guyer's Ruel Newberry, last year's runner-up, won Region I in 14:35.5. Elton Martin won Region II in 14:25.0, Avinash Dewagan won Region III in 14:42.0, and Andrew Esparza won Region IV. Noah Garcia and Kai Gutierrez went two-three behind Newberry in Lubbock. All six of these men are capable of taking home the title, and it will be a tight battle at the front to do so.

No. 1

El Paso Eastwood

No. 1 El Paso Eastwood (El Paso, TX) Prev. No. 1 - No change

Predicted State Finish: 1st

In the preseason, we ranked Eastwood second and said a team returning two top-ten state finishers had a real chance to reach the podium. They've done more than that. They finished seventh at state last year. This year they swept the top four places at their own meet in August, finished four points behind Colorado's Niwot at Desert Twilight, scored 16 at district, and then beat Carroll 48-53 in Lubbock. That was the first time all season anyone beat the defending champions.

The question we kept asking about Eastwood was the gap between Noah Garcia and Noah Loweree. It was eight seconds in August, 38 at Desert Twilight, 2.6 at district, and 18.9 at region. When those two finish close together, Eastwood are very hard to beat. The other question was Elias Alcocer as the fifth runner, and he answered it in Lubbock by finishing 18.6 seconds behind Jacob Lara.

We're picking Eastwood to win the state title. They've beaten the defending champions head-to-head. They have two runners who can finish in the top 10, with Ayden Betancourt and Lara not far behind. And their spread at region was only about four seconds wider than Carroll's. The margin will be small, maybe five points like it was in Lubbock. Over the last month, Eastwood has been the better team.

No. 2

Southlake Carroll High School

No. 2 Southlake Carroll High School (Southlake, TX) Prev. No. 2 - No change

Predicted State Finish: 2nd

Carroll are the defending champions, and they've been the steadiest team in the state since September. They won Southlake by 24 points over Bentonville and the Woodbridge Sweepstakes by 42 over a national field, then beat Keller at district. Their 1-through-5 spread was 36.8 seconds at Southlake, 52.4 at Woodbridge, 22.1 at district, and 63.0 at region. Even their widest spread would beat most of this field.

What decided Lubbock was the second runner. Claudio Auns was 4.1 seconds behind Kai Gutierrez at district and 38.1 seconds behind him at region. Eastwood's third runner crossed the line just after Auns. If Auns runs like he did at district, the five points swing back to Carroll.

We have Carroll second, close behind Eastwood. Gutierrez was fourth at state last year and was 1.7 seconds behind Garcia in Lubbock. Claudio Auns, Jaxon Glenn, Grant Norgart, and Evan O'Donnell all ran on last year's title team, so few teams in the field have as much state-meet experience. If Eastwood has an off day, Carroll will win. But the most recent result went to Eastwood, and we're going with it.

No. 3

Bridgeland

No. 3 Bridgeland (Cypress, TX) Prev. No. 3 - No change

Predicted State Finish: 3rd

We've written a version of the same Bridgeland story all season. They have excellent depth and a tight pack, and the open question was whether they had anyone near the front. They won the Region III preview in Huntsville with a 30-second spread. They beat Bentonville by one point at Gans Creek with a 26.3-second spread. They even won district without their top three runners. Then, at region, Dean Rosales and Patricio Navarro finished third and fourth. 

Bridgeland's 44.2-second spread at region was the tightest of any team in the top five of these rankings, and they beat Vandegrift by 31 in their only meeting. Last year, they finished third at state with a much different lineup on a very off day. This year's group looks better built for team scoring, and that's been reflected in their major results this year.

We're picking the Bears to stand on the podium for the fourth consecutive year. However, the bigger question is whether Bridgeland can finish ahead of Eastwood or Carroll. Rosales was 32 seconds behind Dewagan in Huntsville, and Garcia and Gutierrez both finished well ahead of where Bridgeland's top runner has been all season. Bridgeland has the pack to stay within reach. They don't have the front runners to win it based on their results up to this point.

No. 4

Austin Vandegrift

No. 4 Austin Vandegrift (Austin, TX) Prev. No. 4 - No change

Predicted State Finish: 4th

All season, Vandegrift's story has been Avinash Dewagan, maybe the most improved contender in the state. He was 17th at state last year as a freshman. This fall he won the Nike South, district, and Region III, and he's a serious individual title contender. The gap behind him hasn't closed. It was 51.6 seconds at the Nike South, 29 at district, and 37 at region, and the fourth and fifth runners were close to a minute and a half back in Huntsville.

Vandegrift still has one of the best track records in the field. They won Marcus, the Nike South, and their district, and they finished second at state last year. They've beaten Round Rock twice by a combined 114 points. They also ran their district race on the state course at Old Settlers Park, which Bridgeland hasn't done this season.

We have them fourth. Bridgeland beat them by 31 at region. Dewagan's points help, but at state, front runners don't make up 30 points by themselves. If Ryan Lee runs as he did at region and Anderson Mills moves into the top 30, Vandegrift could move up to third.

No. 5 Keller (Keller, TX) Prev. No. 5 - No change

Predicted State Finish: 6th

Keller's preseason case was their pack, the group that finished fourth at state last year and returned almost entirely intact. Early this season, it held up. They won the Boyd Bronco Stampede and the McNeil Gold, where the five scorers finished 33.1 seconds apart. Boston Bowcutt came back and won the Reunion Run. Then, as the fields got bigger, the pack spread out. It was 48.5 seconds at district and 1:18.2 at region, where Braden Anderson finished 45.6 seconds behind Austin Boto after finishing 6.5 seconds behind him at district.

The good news is up front. Boston Bowcutt finished fifth at region and was ninth at state last year, and Austin Boto was 10th in Lubbock. Keller also has course experience. They won the McNeil Gold at Old Settlers Park in September.

We have Keller sixth, one spot below their ranking. They've lost to Carroll twice, by 15 and 60 points. The Woodlands are trending the other way, and we think they finish just ahead. If Keller's pack from McNeil shows up in Round Rock, they can finish fourth. If the version from region shows up, sixth is more likely.

No. 6

The Woodlands

No. 6 The Woodlands (The Woodlands, TX) Prev. No. 6 - No change

Predicted State Finish: 5th

Before the season, we called The Woodlands an individual story waiting for depth to arrive. They finished 14th at state last year, and through most of this fall the pattern held: Elton Martin near the front and a long gap behind him. Bo Breed, their second runner, was 66.5 seconds behind Martin at the Nike South. James Clary was 54.8 seconds back at district.

Then region happened. Martin won in 14:25.0, the fastest winning time of the four 6A boys regionals, though the courses were all different. Breed was fifth, 46.2 seconds back. The Woodlands won by 33 points over Woodlands College Park, last year's fifth-place team at state. No other team in this top ten has shown the same steady improvement over its last three races.

We're picking The Woodlands to finish fifth, one spot ahead of their ranking. Martin should score near the front, and if he wins the individual title, the team needs only a solid race from the other four. They finished second at the Nike South and have beaten College Park twice. If the gap behind Martin keeps shrinking, fifth is realistic.

No. 7

Round Rock

No. 7 Round Rock (Round Rock, TX)

Predicted State Finish: 8th

Andrew Esparza has won every race he's run this season: the Marcus Elite race, the McNeil Gold, the District 25-6A title on the state course, and Region IV. He finished sixth at state last year and is one of the favorites for the individual title on a course he knows well. Round Rock finished sixth as a team last year too.

The rest of the lineup hasn't changed much since September. The spread was 2:05 at Marcus, 1:37 at McNeil, 1:52 at district, and 1:22.6 at region. Zachary Stevens was 35.9 seconds behind Esparza in Corpus Christi, and the fourth and fifth runners finished in the 30s and 50s. Vandegrift beat Round Rock twice this season. The Woodlands beat them at the Nike South, although Esparza didn't race.

We have Round Rock eighth. Esparza's points will matter, and he and Leo Brasil both know the course. But a 1:22 spread at state can cost a team several places, and College Park's pack has been tighter. Round Rock will need to be closer to the front than they were in Corpus Christi.

No. 8

Flower Mound

No. 8 Flower Mound (Flower Mound, TX)

Predicted State Finish: 10th

Flower Mound's preseason case was a pack that finished 19 seconds apart and still missed state. They've proven the pack part again and again. Their spread was 20.9 seconds at Southlake, 33.5 at McNeil, 21.8 at the Great American, 20 at district, and 27.8 at region. No team in this field has run together as consistently. They got the state berth this time, claiming Region I's fourth spot by 16 points.

The issue has been where the pack finishes. At district, it moved up to second through eighth. In Lubbock, against stronger teams, it finished 21st through 48th. Their best runner was 17th at Southlake, 27th at McNeil, 79th at the Great American, and 21st at region. That's a strong pack with nobody up front.

We have Flower Mound 10th. They've lost to Carroll and Keller each twice this year, and a pack that finishes in the 20s through 40s at region could finish in the 40s through 70s in a state field. If the district version shows up, they could finish seventh. They missed state as a team last year, and they'll need their best race of the season to beat the experienced teams around them.

No. 9

Conroe Woodlands College Park

No. 9 Conroe Woodlands College Park (Conroe, TX) Prev. No. 9 - No change

Predicted State Finish: 7th

College Park has spent the season finishing behind ranked teams. They were second to Bridgeland at the Region III preview, sixth at Gans Creek, second to The Woodlands at district, and second to them again at region. But at state last year, they finished fifth, ahead of both Round Rock and Eastwood, and three of their runners from that race scored for them at region: Ryan Beken, Vasco Arredondo, and Praneel Ajjan.

Beken has improved the most. He was 51st at state last year and second at region in 14:57.5 this fall. Andrew Fry was sixth. College Park's 1:07.0 spread at region was tighter than The Woodlands', Round Rock's, or Keller's.

We're picking College Park seventh, ahead of Round Rock and Flower Mound. They have experience on the state course, a front two who finished in the top six at region, and the tightest pack of the teams in this part of the field. They won't catch The Woodlands. The two Woodlands-area teams have finished in the same order both times they've met. Seventh is a realistic target.

No. 10

Humble Atascocita

No. 10 Humble Atascocita (Humble, TX) Prev. No. 10 - No change

Predicted State Finish: 9th

Atascocita entered the rankings last week after finishing third in Region III, 14 points ahead of Strake Jesuit. They also finished third at the Region III preview on Sept. 5, so they've run the regional course well twice. Eli Mugambi has been their standout. He was 27th at state last year and finished second at region in 15:05.7, only 23.7 seconds behind Dewagan and 8.2 seconds ahead of Bridgeland's Rosales.

We have Atascocita ninth. That puts them ahead of Flower Mound because Mugambi can score near the front, which Flower Mound hasn't been able to do in a big field. It puts them behind College Park, which has more experience and a tighter pack. If Vance or another fifth runner finishes in the 50s instead of the 70s, they could finish as high as seventh.