UIL 6A Boys
Chances To Win Individual Title
I believe Caden Leonard (Southlake Carroll) has to be considered the favorite to win this year's title.
He enters as the reigning and defending state champ from 2023 and the junior won the Region 1-6A title last week in Lubbock with a 14:53.
Benjamin Montgomery (Bridgeland) won the Region 2-6A title last week with a 14:56 season best run. Montgomery should have fresh legs and after winning the 3,200m state title on the track, his confidence should be building.
Benjamin Pearce (Houston Stratford) won Region 3-6 title with a 15:08 personal best. He has yet to lose to anyone from Texas this season.
Gavin Chapa (San Antonio Reagan) is the other region winner after taking the dub at Region 4-6A. He ran 15:24 in Corpus Christi, but he has a 14:57 personal best from earlier in the season.
There are several other guys who should be in the mix for the win.
Joaquin De La Cruz (McKinney Boyd) is a front runner and is always in the hunt of any race. He was runner-up at Region 1-6A in 15:07 and has a 14:52 personal best this year. De La Cruz hasn't finished lower than third in any race this year.
Hudson Haley (Austin Vandegrift) was the 2023 state meet runner-up. He was also second at Region 2-6A last week. Despite not nearly having the track season many of the guys who will be in this race had, Haley is never really out of any race. He hasn't finished any lower than second place this year and his 14:48 personal best earlier this year make him a threat once again.
This will be the first time many will get to see Ruel Newberry (Denton Guyer) run in person. I don't think they'll be disappointed, he is small, but he is mighty! The kid just has it. He has the DFW racing moxy and he isn't gifted being listed here, it has been earned.
Aidan Danny Torres (El Paso Eastwood) is another dangerous runner. He is another runner who is a front runner and always present in the lead pack. He was fourth at Region 1-6A and the three guys who beat him are already listed, but it is no guarantee they can all do it again.
Keeping An Eye Out
Sometimes it is very difficult to choose the state champion. This year is one of those years despite the defending title winner returning.
The runners above are the guys we believe have good chances of getting the win. However, there are 10 all-state and medaling positions. Here are some boys we believe have chances of running into the top ten.
: Kai McCullough (Austin Vandegrift), Aleksandr Acuna (Denton Braswell), Matthias Peterson (Northwest Nelson), Blake Bullard (Southlake Carroll), Griffin Cords (Southlake Carroll), Elijah Rivera-Campos (Lewisville Hebron), Camden Gibson (College Park), Ryder Darcey (Katy), Griffen Saacke (Bridgeland), Chris Creedon (Clear Creek), Elton Martin (The Woodlands), Eli Mugambi (Atascocita), Zachary Miller (Northside Brennan), Parker Noffz (Lewisville Marcus)
Chances To Win Team Title
There is no shortage of quality teams in this race. The standard has been raised in recent years in the UIL 6A classification. This year alone, chances have looked less likely if a team hasn't been able to run under 15:30 and less than a 40-second gap to even have a chance to podium.
That could be the case on Friday, but if it rains and the course is muddy, you can throw times out the window. Race positioning could become more of a factor than usual.
The strategy, philosophy, style of racing and the execution of them will come into play in this race.
DFW area teams like to go out hard and fast in the early stages of the race. Other teams don't have the ability or desire to go begin that way and hold on.
Then there is a team who strategically goes out conservatively, and enforces their reserve on the second half of the race.
Let's look at who we figure to have a shot at the podium and championship.
Southlake Carroll is not only the reigning and defending champions, but they've won that past five state meet team titles.
That makes it hard to pick against them, but their 2024 season is more evidence that they'll be hard to knock off the podium this year.
The UIL 6A - District 04 meet was their best performance of the year; the CCCAT top ranked Dragons ran a 15:04 team average with a 53-second gap. If they are clicking like that, they'll be hard to beat.
However, there are several other teams who believe the win is within their grasps. One reason is because all of Carroll's races this year have been on flat and fast surfaces except one. That one was last week's Region 1-6A race, which happened to be their worst overall performance of the year. They went for a 15:39 team average, which on that course isn't bad, but their 1:15 team average was atypical of this squad.
The No. 2 Austin Vandegrift finished in the team runner-up position last year and they have been near perfect all season long. Hudson Haley and Kai McCullough give them two low stick runners who have sub 15-minute performances this season.
Their best run this year is a 15:07 and 33-second gap from the UIL 6A - District 25. They also have an impressive 15:09 team average with a 43-second gap from the Marcus Coach T XC Invitational and went 15:46 average with a 36-second gap at regionals. Last month, on the same course they'll compete on Friday, they ran 15:38 and 1:07 at McNeil.
Northwest Nelson is another team that has been nipping at the heels of Carroll much of this season. At the UIL 6A - District 04, they were only ten points behind Carroll. They ran a 15:15 team average with a 46-second gap.
Their next best race was a 15:31 average and 48-second spread race at the Southlake #1 XC Invite. However, as with Carroll and every other qualifying team from Region 1, they'll have to improve on their performance in Lubbock. There, the No. 3 ranked squad only ran a 16:03 average, but they did still dropped a 58-second gap.
No. 4 Bridgeland hasn't been very active this year and that was most likely designed to be ready for now. Even though they haven't raced a lot, when they did they were very impressive considering they've run on some not-so-easy courses.
In their last two mets before the championship rounds, they ran a 15:52 average with a 50-second spread at the Texas A&M Invitation, and 15:55 and 47-seconds at the Cowboy Jamboree.
Lately, it was at the Region 2-6A Championships where their number one runner Benjamin Montgomery ran a 14:56 PR to win and the team came through with a 15:30 average and a 50-second spread.
Another team with a legitimate shot at the state championship is El Paso Eastwood. Not that it is necessary, but they also have a sub 15 guy leading the way for them.
Aidan Danny Torres' low stick running will be crucial for the No. 4 ranked Troopers.
Eastwood was second at Region 1 going for a 16:03 average and 1:08 gap. That wasn't their best run of the year.
One of their best was the Desert Twilight where they ran a 15:22 average. They've run 30 and 40-second spreads this year, but at their fastest, they seem to be around 60- seconds.
Part of that is because Torres is blazing fast and running in the 14:40s. That helps their average, but hurst their gap times. Their other four scoring runners are coming through in the 15-high range to 16-low. Their two through four gaps are under 20-seconds.
If Eastwood can stay tight and inch closer to Torres, they'll have a chance.
I also think there are teams who could be having their best races saved for the state meet. Keep an eye out for these teams to possibly get on the podium: Katy, Flower Mound, College Park, Waxahachie, Round Rock, and The Woodlands
Do Region 3 teams have a shot at making the podium?
If it rains, yes, I think speed will be neutralized if the course is muddy. Who knows what will happen then.
It might not be a race of how good a team is if it isn't dry-ish.
I have Katy as a team to look out for. The reason is because they have three runners who can run sub 16-minutes. That will go a long way to being able to score with the top five teams.
If Tompkins, Summer Creek, and Clear Creek were to run an average of 15:50, and can keep the spread around 50-seconds at worst, then they could be in the podium conversation. It'll just be tough or any team who doesn't execute that type of race on dry land.