UIL 5A Girls
Chances To Win Individual Title
It looked like there would 100% be a new individual 5A girls champion when Elizabeth Leachman went down at the Region 4-5A Championships.
However, her Boerne Champion squad advanced and was able to give her another opportunity to defend her title.
Can Leachman complete the race at state? We'll see, but there is definitely a high rate of probability she will finish and win the race. While she hasn't run much this year, when she has it was been fast enough to have quite a bit of comfortability and space between her and second place.
Leachman's 16:32 season best is still 46-seconds faster than the nearest best 5A girls performance.
So, who can bring the pressure to Leachan?
Well, Dana Rojas Vazquez (McAllen) is the girl with the next fastest run in 5A. She was also contesting Leachan in Corpus Christi as she was only 5-seconds back for much of the race.
With that said the regional champion was Smithson Valley freshman Brady Solansky. Her win was in a 18:05 personal best and that will have her in the mix in Round Rock.
There is another freshman coming from Region 1 in Sofia Phillips (Birdville) who was a region champ and is prone to challenge for the lead. Her 18:18 win was her best time by far this year, but doing it in Lubbock shows she could be faster at state.
Molly Garrison, Ella Magallan, Zoe Vann, Natali Velasquez and Micah Neal are several other Region 1 girls who could contest in Round Rock.
Camryn Benson (Lucas Lovejoy) is the top returner from last year after Leachman. There is nothing about her season that would lead me to believe she won't be there again this season.
Galilea De La Garza (McKinney North) was runner-up at Region 2 with a 18:39 and that could have her in a good position in Round Rock as well.
Presley Robertson (Frisco Wakeland) is another Region 2 girl who competes well and was only one second behind De La Garza.
Eva Cragnolino (Austin LASA) - 18:38 and Melia Flowers (Georgetown) - 18:49 went 1-2 at Region 3. Their runs were comparative to the other top girls in each region.
Chances To Win Team Title
The Lovejoy girls are going for their fourth consecutive UIL 5A girls state title. This season looks to be the most vulnerable they've looked in the past three years.
However, don't mistake that as an open door policy from the Leopards. Despite heavy graduation hits, they've continued to plug in and run fast.
The expectation is for a low-stick finish from Benson to lead this top ranked squad. They still run sub-60 spreads and the gaps between the two and three runners is one second and the gap between the four and five runners is just one to two seconds.
They went for a 18:54 average with a 45-second gap to win another regional title.
Frisco Wakeland who is ranked No. 8 and Dallas Highland Park the No. 6 ranked squad finished second and third to Lovejoy in Region 2-6A.
Aledo enters Round Rock as the Region 1-5A champion for the second straight season. They won with a 19:25 average and a 1:56 spread.
The No. 3 ranked team in 5A was runner-up last year and returned a healthy amount of girls from that team. They've been on the Lovejoy heels throughout the season, but haven't been able to topple the champs. They should be in the mix still, but they'll have to lower their 1-5 gap from their 1:32 gap at Region 2-5A
College Station A&M Cons ran a 19:33 average with a 1:05 spread. They'll definitely have to be faster to have a chance, but they'll also be tighter.
Smithson Valley looks to be the chief competition this weekend. They have run themselves into the No. 2 ranking and they have both the experience and youthful talent to compete.
Solansky already proved that she is good. However, she has more youth pushing this squad forward. Aubrey Pozzi and Skyler Fonseca infused this squad to be challengers. However, junior Lilly Koenig and senior Mia Perez provide the experience and foundation of this team.
The Rangers ran a 19:04 average with a 1:32 spread. They have also run 19:00 and 1:04 and 19:07 with a 46-second spread on the Old Settlers course last month.
This race will come down to Koenig and Perez' ability to stay tight and out run Lovejoy's two and three runners. The four spot is very even for both teams and it comes down to the fifth runner....maybe be even the sixth runner.