UIL 5A Boys
Chances To Win Individual Title
There are several chief competitors for the UIL 5A boys individual state championship.
The regional round may have provided a little clarity on things with the times and placements of many of the individuals.
Unfortunately, there will be several top 5A boys who won't be racing. We have been missing out on Caden Gary (Lovejoy) all season long as he elected to rest to be fully healthy for the track season.
Then at the Region 3 meet, the third best returner from last year's state meet, Zachary Mangum (Georgetown) was right in the mix for the Region 3-5A win until he went down 500m from the finish.
With the time almost upon us to race it out once and for all, here are some of the boys who have paved their way into our minds as favorites.
Athletes coming out of Region 1 have gone onto win the state meet for several years. That streak is on the legs of some very capable runners who qualified this year.
Diego Romero (El Paso Americas) won the Region 1-5A Championships last week with a 15:47 win. Fellow El Pasoan Miles Westbrook (El Paso) finished a couple of seconds behind him in 15:47. Both guys are very talented and have experience on the Old Settlers cours.
Abdirisak Saidgurhan (Amarillo Palo Duro) was only a second behind Westbrook in third in Lubbock and John Alcantar (Abilene) also dipped under 16:00.
Saidgurhan qualified for state last year and looks to be in the midst of a good rhythm this season. Alcantar has been on fire this entire year and looks confident going into the state championships.
There were six boys in Region 2-5A who ran sub 16-minutes.
The race was won by Bryce Denton (Anna) who ripped a 15:19 performance. Denton was third at last year's 4A state meet and he looks to salivating for the 5A title this weekend.
Josh McCartney (Frisco Heritage) has been good all year and went 15:48 for a runner-up finish.
Region 3 is also loaded and had seven boys come out of that championship race.
Aiden Fitzgerald (Friendswood) got the win with a time of 15:19, getting the win by 20-seconds. Fitzgerald is one of the top returners from last year's race and in a good position for the state title.
Matthew Binkley (Montgomery) had a career day at the Region 3-6A Championships and could ride that momentum wave into Round Rock.
Amisadai Yanez (Texas City), Jaxon Asbill (Dayton), Elijah Merino (Kingwood Park), Colby Huntress (Austin Anderson), and Carson Brown (Kingwood Park) can all amplify their regional runs and turn them into possible state meet challengers.
Region 4-5A also has some serious challengers for the 5A state championships.
Nathan Salina (Mission Sharyland) pulled up and away from Charlie Houck (Boerne Champion) for the 15:52 win with Houck finishing in 15:56.
Based on appearance, Salinas looked to be in perfect control of his race. If he is able to enhance on it with a chase pack that will push him even more, he will challenge.
Houck chose to control the race and press the issue before hitting the mile marker. In a race with a higher level of runners, he won't have to accept the lead duties and could put him in an even better position.
Luis Tovar (Boerne Champion) didn't have the complete race he would have liked, he has demonstrated the ability to race well against the 5A boys and on the Old Settlers course.
Chances To Win Team Title
The Lucas Lovejoy boys are in a good position to repeat as state champions. The defending winners and No. 1 ranked Leopards have been consistent all year long.
They won the Region 2 going for a 15:56 team average and 38-second spread. The can run fast enough to stay in the front and tight enough to be in the mix at the end. Tristan Arceneau and William Carlson went 15:57 and 15:58 to lead the squad with their 3, 4, 5 runners finishing within four seconds of one another.
What is compelling about the team race is there are several teams who might not be as fast as average wise as Lovejoy, but they can run as tight as Lovejoy and can possibly capitalize on any opportunities if presented.
Frisco Wakeland, ranked No 8 in the state finished runner-up at Region 2 going for a 16:48 average with a 31-second spread. If they can run faster and keep a tight gap, they could pose a real challenge in Round Rock.
No. 9 ranked Grapevine won Region 1 with at 16:45 average and Colleyville Heritage was second with a 16:57 team average. I expect both teams to run faster in Round Rock if the course conditions aren't horrendous.
Both teams can run quality averages and their ability to run spreads near 30-seconds will enable them to challenge.
Region 4 has four teams who will all compete for a podium position, but they all can contest for the state title as well.
Each qualifying team ran high 16-minute averages. I can see them all running faster in Round Rock and if they can run low 16-minutes they'll compete.
Their ability to meet the tone that will set in this race with teams who will run tight is what will keep them in contention.
No. 5 Weslaco East only won the region with a 16:48 average but they ran a 37-second spread. No 4 McAllen went for a 16:53 average and a 29-second spread, No. 6 Boerne went 16:51 and a 49-second spread.
On multiple occasions this year, No. 2 ranked Boerne Champion has run low 16-averages and way faster than their 16:50 average at Region 4. Their best performance (average/spread) this year was a 16:13 team average with a 56-second gap.
Other teams to watch are: Dallas Highland Park, McKinney North, Friendswood